The final of the system of the Russian Federation

Gleb Pavlovsky died, a man who has gone from a political strategist to an archaeologist of the Russian authorities

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When meetings with Gleb Olegovich, I always recalled the first line of the “Mashenka” by Nabokov: “Leo Govo ... Lev Glebovich? Well, you have a friend, you can dislocate your tongue. ” When reading his articles of the Podputinsky period, often published, for example, in the then dominant intellectual circles of the “independent newspaper”, it seemed that it was not possible to dislocate the language, but the brains, so deliberately ornamental, seemed verbal scales-just some kind of Viennese secession.

Who would have thought that from under this pen would grow a whole, as he himself defined this concept, the “system of the Russian Federation”, not the country, but the system, as it was once called Soviet power. And if Putin is a golem, then on the clay body of this golem there are fingerprints of Gleb Pavlovsky, which the political technologist never hid. As he did not hide the authorship of many electoral plans and terms, for example, “sovereign democracy” - this was a statement that the Putin model of authoritarianism was completely matured.

However, Golem, as expected, was healed by his life separate from his demiurge, and Demiurge himself stood in a fairly tough opposition, focusing on the analysis of what was happening.

The analysis is extremely deep, because Pavlovsky knew where to look for objects of particularly close study.

When Putin’s first program was written-the reform program, Pavlovsky could often be seen alone with a laptop in a cafe in Alexander-House opposite the house on the embankment, where the Center for Strategic Development was lodging, which prepared a new happy life in the new millennium. Plans to complete the reforms and the establishment of an enlightened autocracy turned out to be a typical Soviet incomplete, over which the foundation of the old -fashioned Stalinist community in the manner, as it turned out a little later, the KGB building on Lubyanka began to be built. Pavlovsky put a lot of effort to turn Putin into a sort of Genghis Khan with a laptop. The political strategist was created and headed by the Effective Policy Fund, FEP, who built Putin a model of the first two terms. After 2012, there was already nothing to build-from the construction of Golem, which strengthened his clay legs with some new substance, moved to destruction. Including what he built in the early years of the rule himself.

It was, to put it mildly, a difficult episode in the biography of Pavlovsky, how difficult were the individual periods in the personal history of his dissidentism. What is well known, as is known to his discovery by historian Mikhail Gifter.

From him he adopted the philosophy of history, according to which “Russian power is not a state. She takes the places where society should be ... She is due to despotistical, which is otherwise weak. ”

Late, post -Putin, Pavlovsky is a special stage of both personal biography and the history of Russian analytics. Having left the borders of the Russian system, Gleb began the archaeological digging under it by the analytical analysis of life -based products and semantic traps left by the system. Pavlovsky discovered and presented their essence, but it was too late. Yes, and this archaeological and anatomical analysis was interested only in the thinking class.

If he passed into a kind of opposition to Putin, then to the opposition is intellectual. However, his former customers were not interested in the nuances. In August 2016, we coincided with Pavlovsky on the forum of Kafka and Orwell (now the prophetic name!) On the Baltic Spit, where the Angars of the Luftwaffe still stand, and then the organizers pierced the tires of cars. The system of the Russian Federation against its creator ... I remember, they were waiting for the Cossacks, but they did not come. The vegetarian was time ...

On February 24, 2022, Pavlovsky did not predict, but showed - even in the work of 2015 “Terminus/2016” - that the escalation becomes the main meaning and instrument of the existence of the system of the Russian Federation going to the finale (namely with a capital letter):

“Having entered a strategic impasse, the Kremlin team simply raises bets and goes to escalation - excessively increasing risk.”

Yes, Putin went into a strategic impasse, into a crisis of goal-setting, and the only way that turned out to be affordable and effective is the escalation: 2015 is just a year of not only Minsk agreements, but also a proxy conflict with the United States (as with another Erdogan) in Syria. “If you cannot freeze the conflict - drown it in a new conflict, escalated relative to the previous one,” - this formula Pavlovsky clearly describes everything that Putin did in recent years. The escalation forces the system to open - a kind of new sincerity arises, Putin no longer needs to portray politeness in relation to the West and the internal audience. He finally does what he really wants to do. True, this is what: "Russia will turn into a global loser - into a world target."

The escalation allows you to find an justification for the inability to do business - that is, the arrangement of Russia, the implementation of a positive program. All the time, something prevented the past from concentrating on modernization or at least normalization of the country, now the “collective West”, as it turned out, had long planned the destruction of Russia. This approach, Pavlovsky wrote, ensures the “anthropological irresponsibility” of the Russian system. Of course, break not to build. It is easier to use the language of hatred than to restrain yourself. Make infantile decisions more fun than responsible ones.

But maybe such a way of the existence of the system is the norm for it, and not at all evidence of the finale? Moreover, “the system of the Russian Federation is forced to take a chance ( see verbally expressed readiness, for example, Medvedev D.A. to bury the whole world under the wreckage of Russia. - A.K. ), risking the world at the same time - and all just to remain yourself. But we, the settlers of the system, like it damn. " The latter partially explains the behavior of Putin’s aggressive supporters, in whom Autocrat finds a “center of pleasure” and tickles him with his militancy - it seems to them that escalations carry a rare enjoyment, pleasure to rule the world.

What next? “Resource collapse” - “The conditional final of the system will come here ... after which, however, we can again meet with the reincarnation of the Russian system.”

In a long conversation with the Bulgarian political scientist Ivan Krastev, who compiled the book “The Experimental Homeland” (2018), Pavlovsky spoke about one very important thing: “The hinge of the Russian system is flexible. But he is without a return, like a ratchet. Rare cases when the Kremlin retreated were associated with the death of the ruler. I now see the problem of deterrence in a new light - she stopped looking for a deterrence of Russia by the West. In Russia itself, an internal constituency subject should arise or find. ”

On February 24, it showed that such a subject was not found inside the system - all its subjects continue to parasitize on crises and escalations, turning the battle with the West and the archaization of the country into a way of their existence. In the final method that does not have alternatives and leading to an incomprehensible and under -formulated Pavlovsky finale.

One could pathetically say that Gleb Olegovich took the secret of the finals with him to the grave, and this would be too strong a statement. But the voices of Gleb Pavlovsky in recent months, when he fell ill, was very missing and reduced our ability to understand reality.

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