Difficult but interesting

The theme of the crisis has firmly taken its place in the view of 2009, but it will not be limited to it. A New Year's poll by Polit.ru showed that many of our experts and colleagues believe that Russia and the world have to solve a number of problems that arose earlier, “before the oil flood” (publisher Dmitry Itskovich), but are still unresolved. There may not be any drastic changes this year, but it may turn out to be a preparatory year. There will be a painful and at the same time positive selection in the economic and political spheres, says political scientist Nikolai Petrov (Carnegie Moscow Center).

Historian Alexey Miller, economist Sergei Guriev, philologist Mikhail Zolotonosov and political scientists Alexey Makarkins and Dmitry Oreshkin agreed that the year would be very difficult, while philologist and publicist Kirill Rogov expects a political crisis.

In 1920s America

Lately, one might say, we lived like America in the 1920s, when it seemed that after the First World War economic growth would be constant. The whole country believed that everything was fine, and that it would be even better. Then suddenly sobering set in. The first sobering point is macroeconomic indicators. Already, some forecasters are saying that the rate of economic growth will drop sharply. Others believe there will be a recession. Quite high inflation is expected. “There is a danger of stagflation when economic stagnation, unemployment and inflation exist simultaneously,” says Alexei Makarkin, deputy general director of the Center for Political Technologies.

We will learn through experience whether there is an economic bottom and where it is. According to optimistic forecasts, Russia will reach it already in 2009.

For the world, salvation from the crisis may be associated with “the charisma and readiness for international cooperation of the new American president,” believes Boris Dolgin, scientific editor of Polit.ru, basing his forecast on the fact that there is a crisis of trust and only a qualitative leap in this area will allow reverse the trend. All this, he expects, will affect the situation in the international economy by the end of the first quarter. The Russian economy, within the framework of this trend, will probably also be able to stop falling and begin to rise, but our bottom may appear a little later.

It is likely that, due to the crisis, the Russian authorities will have time to spend most of the reserves, and yet they will not be enough, says Mikhail Zakharov, editor-in-chief of the Polit.ru news feed. Then the word “sequestration” - a reduction in state budget expenditures - will be scary. According to his forecast, partial nationalization will occur - Russian big business will not be able to pay off debts that are de facto nationalized: “I would like to hope that the Russian authorities will be able to properly manage their reserves and come out with minimal losses.”

So that the country does not “end”

Politically, the year may be no less difficult than economically. This will be the year when the political system faces new challenges and modernizes itself in one way or another. “The only question is whether this modernization will be evolutionary or revolutionary, whether the current system will be able to improve itself or will it be replaced by another system,” says political scientist Nikolai Petrov. In such a situation it is very difficult to make a forecast. Unlike the usual situation when one factor changes, today too many external and internal factors can change, so the combination and consequences of these factors can be very different.

In 2009, as experts note, very serious government decisions will be required, and most importantly, consistency in these decisions in order to avoid worst-case scenarios. The experience of many countries suggests that the most dangerous thing is inconsistent decisions, when, under the influence of certain lobby groups or simply public opinion, and sometimes both, the authorities sway from side to side. This is the worst-case scenario. Consistent implementation of the chosen course can mitigate the consequences of the crisis.

An important part of the decisions relates to anti-corruption legislation. In 2009, it will be easier for the population of states in which the corruption index is minimal. “It is the combination of today’s economic situation and those, at a minimum, words and intentions to fight corruption that we heard about in 2008, that create a combination in which the fight against corruption becomes an absolutely indisputable factor in the future,” says the director of the Center for Anti-Corruption Research and Initiatives of Transparency International. Russia Elena Panfilova. Without control by bureaucrats and finances, we will not be able to overcome any crisis. “So in 2009, I think either we can start moving in the right direction, or we won't be very good,” she said.

If there is no effective anti-corruption program, if the tax and administrative burden on small businesses is not lifted, Russia may face a new wave of emigration. “We live in a global world, in a global economy... You need to work where you are in demand. Emigration to the EU countries, the USA and Canada may be the only possible choice for millions of Russians,” says analyst Roman Konoplev.

The whole situation will create an atmosphere of irritation. “The authorities will be irritated and not knowing what to grab onto. An irritated society that also doesn’t know the way,” says Arseny Borisovich Roginsky. In general, we expect an atmosphere of increasing irritability and inadequate assessments of events. “The impression is that the country is 'ending'... It is the impression that everything is bad and is coming to an end,” said Fyodor Uspensky, head of the Center for Slavic-Germanic Studies at the Institute of Slavic Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences. On the other hand, the editor-in-chief of the Russian Reporter, Vitaly Leibin, expects that in 2009 we will finally learn the real super idea of ​​Russia.

Red directors are “blown away”

Today, the crisis has already passed the stock exchange and banking phase and is gradually entering the social phase. It is clear that macroeconomics influences people's destinies. We are now beginning to remember the 1990s, when some enterprises were closing, but others were opening, the old economy was in crisis, but the new economy was developing at a rapid pace. A person could, if desired, move from one sphere to another. Of course, not everyone succeeded, but there were opportunities. “Now all this is being blown away; with the current crisis, new opportunities are not appearing,” says Alexey Makarkin.

In addition, the psychology of managers has changed. In the 90s, there was a scenario of so-called “red directors” who treated their employees paternalistically. They tried to save the team until the last minute, albeit with problems and interruptions in wages. The new generation of managers is different, they do not have such sentimentality. Today, politicians have to urge managers not to allow unjustified dismissals, because dismissal is recognized as one of the first-priority decisions in a crisis situation.

The question arises to what extent Russians will be able to adapt to the crisis after the recovery period. Many say that there is a possibility of rising protest sentiments. There will be no protests among office workers, at least not in the classical form: they are not inclined to collective action. Problems can be in two layers: among pensioners and workers of large industrial enterprises. Pensioners already have experience in collective action and are quite easily mobilized, including through word of mouth, says Alexey Makarkin. For them, any infringement of rights without compensation will be a shock. The second group - workers of large industrial enterprises - will find it difficult to get a job elsewhere, even for a lower salary and with worse conditions, since many enterprises are city-forming. In addition, the size of such enterprises contributes to collective protest.

Stubble of power

In a situation of a serious economic challenge, it is important how the Russian political system will work, whether the authorities will respond to the awakening social discontent and social movements “flexibly or bristle with needles, as is already beginning to happen,” believes Boris Dolgin. In 2009, we will see whether the Russian authorities are ready to interact with real civil society, and not with its dummies. So far, the democratic initiatives of President Medvedev's Address, unlike his much more dubious ideas, are actually being sabotaged.

In 2009, the fate of the attack on Memorial will be decided. The sooner it chokes, the less damage will be caused to Russia’s reputation by this action, believes Boris Dolgin. “The year 2008 began with an attack on the European University, and ends with sick fantasies about the financing of extremist publications by the St. Petersburg Memorial and the confiscation without an inventory of materials on the history of repression and social movements in the USSR. I really hope that next year will pass without new nonsense of this kind,” the analyst said.

In 2009, the rating of public trust in the top officials of the state in Russia will change noticeably, experts say. Russians have already sharply stopped believing in television, noted Masha Gessen, and in 2009, according to her forecasts, television will “break” completely.

New consolidation

For the world, 2009 will be a year of consolidation, at least for its Western part, Nikolai Petrov believes. Perhaps in 2009 we will wait for a serious discussion of the problems of collective security within the Euro-Atlantic space. “It seems to me that the new American administration will be ready for such a formulation of the issue. It is also important that some European countries already seem to be ready for this,” says Boris Dolgin. We must not try to announce in advance a complete replacement of existing mechanisms, otherwise the level of resistance will increase.

In 2009, it will be possible again to follow with interest the processes in Ukraine, where at least presidential elections will be held. I would very much like to hope for a change in power in Georgia - there are unusually many serious figures there who are ready to defend national interests without the adventurism and hysteria of the current president. It is important that they get the opportunity to really influence the situation, but this is not an easy task to solve, says Boris Dolgin.

“Also in 2009 we will see how strong (even in the optimistic scenario described above) the power of the Chinese Communist Party is, since the social challenge to the current system can be really strong. Let’s hope that everything will work out – and will serve not to intensify repression, but to a gradual softening of the regime,” he points out.

According to Boris Dolgin, within the framework of 2009, one or another option for solving the Iranian problem will probably be outlined - either in the form of a complexly organized compromise that guarantees against the threat of an aggressive nuclear Iran, or in the option of forcefully suppressing the threat. The first option is, of course, preferable, but the absence of the second in the arsenal will not allow the first to be implemented. “I hope that the ‘lead’ hint in Gaza will not only contribute to the solution of the Palestinian problem, but will be correctly understood in Tehran,” he concludes.

There is no doubt, according to the scientific observer of "Polit.ru" Alexey Kupriyanov, that in 2009 the entire scientific world will celebrate a triple anniversary: ​​200 years since the publication of "Philosophy of Zoology" by Jean-Baptiste Lamarck - a book in which, as (not quite correctly) it is believed that the first evolutionary theory was expounded; 200 years since the birth of Charles Darwin, an English amateur naturalist, who with his works laid the foundations of modern ideas about evolution; 150 years since the publication of his book “The Origin of Species”, which made a real revolution in science. In his opinion, “it is long-standing events that sometimes provide grounds for confidence in the future.”

Some experts believe that 2009 will not be as bad as many expect. “Firstly, it will not be a leap year, and secondly, 2 + 9 = 11, which means first grade twice, if anyone doesn’t understand numerology,” - says Oleg Popov, director of development at Polit.ru. In addition, as linguist and humanitarian thinker Rebekah Frumkina predicts, Polit.ru will survive.

In short, 2009 will be interesting.

See also:

• Ekaterina Publicchuk. The year of bursting bubbles