Crisis without a risk of a coup

The situation in Ukraine in the coming years can develop according to four different scenarios, the analysts of the Foreign Policy agency say. According to their assessment, both a large war and a comprehensive political settlement of the crisis in the country are equally unlikely.

The agency’s report containing this conclusion was at the disposal of the newspaper Kommersant . According to the authors of the report, taking into account the fact that Ukraine goes into the background of the agenda of the leading players involved, that is, the USA, the EU and Russia, the option with domestic political destabilization is not excluded: the resumption of hostilities in the Donbass, mass street protests in Kyiv and even an attempt by a coup.

Other scenarios of the development of events were called by experts of “foreign policy”: the preservation of political stability in Ukraine and the support of the government by the West; a decrease in the EU and the USA involvement in Ukrainian affairs, including at the financial level; Or preservation of the stability of the regime with the simultaneous reduction in its support to the West, as well as with a reduction in shelling and armed clashes on the contact line.

In general, the authors of the report conclude that the script similar to the Euromaidan can repeat in Ukraine.

Independence Square is the central square of Kyiv. / pixabay.com

To evaluate the Ukrainian situation and evaluate these assumptions for Polit.ru was agreed by Georgy Chizhov, Vice-President of the Center for Political Technologies, the head of the Ukrainian Bureau of the Fund. In his opinion, the crisis in the country is associated with economic problems and is generally not acute, and certainly not as acute as it was some time ago.

“There is no terrible crisis in Ukraine. There is what can be called a crisis-this is a general fall in the standard of living related to the devaluation of hryvnia in 2014-2015, with the ongoing restructuring of the economy as the enterprises that are outside the territory controlled by the government disappeared. This structural restructuring of the economy until a certain time was accompanied by a decrease in living standards, but now a reverse tendency, a tendency to moderate growth have already been indicated.

It is still weak, one might say, unstable: after almost 5 percent growth in December, the so-called nationalization of enterprises in the DPR and LPR occurred, and growth indicators returned to zero again. But, nevertheless, it is possible to talk about some acute crisis in the country only in the context of ongoing hostilities in its East. And there. Of course, some breakthroughs are not expected.

The consequences of shelling the territory of the DPR / press service of the DPR Armed Forces

I would like to believe that there will be no big war - because Ukraine is not interested in it and, apparently, is not interested in Russia. In general, there are no other factors there: the independent republics of the DPR and the LPR have dubious subjectivity and cannot make political decisions themselves. But, most likely, in my opinion, the current picture will remain there - with shelling, with human victims.

This will very seriously slow down Ukraine, but - and nothing more. In the current conditions, albeit not too favorable, stabilization has already occurred. And if some additional efforts from the outside are not made, Ukraine should expect gradual growth. How fast it will be, this is a question, because everything in Ukraine is, of course, not not for. But I think this is the topic of another, deeper conversation.

In a word, such sharp scenarios are not quite adequate. Moreover, it may seem that someone is trying to give the desired for the real one. After all, there are those who constantly talk about the “third maidan”, staying in the conviction that for this it is enough to reproduce some kind of political technology, as we have already said earlier. And I think there is no reason to wait for the coup: after all, there is a procedure for early parliamentary elections. Although now I would say that the probability of such an outcome is even lower than it was a year and a half ago or a year ago.

And if we talk about the coup, as a seizure of power by some group, then it is simply not clear why someone may be needed. Some Russian analysts do not understand this. For example, they distinguish the category of Ukrainian security forces who theoretically have a resource in order to announce the seizure of power. But still, one should not attribute your way of thinking to others. After all, such a violent change of power would put Ukraine in a very difficult position.

It would really have been an acute crisis, and it would be accompanied by international isolation - and, first of all, isolation from the Western countries, which today are allies of Ukraine. And although they support the existing Ukrainian authorities with well -known reservations, they still support its course as a whole. Anyone who would carry out a coup now would lose this support, and that would be very bad.

At least, in the event of a coup, only pro-Russian forces could count on some external support in the event of a coup. But there are no such forces capable of making a coup in Ukraine now. Therefore, I do not think that there is reason to expect it. I have not seen the report itself, which is referred by the "Kommersant", but I heard quite a lot of reasoning of this variety earlier. And basically all this was sucked out of the finger.

Youth action in Independence Square. 2016 / YouTube.com

As for the mass street actions, which, according to the newspaper, they talk in a report, in Ukraine people go out on the streets, but this does not cause such excitement as, for example, it was with shares on June 12 in Moscow. As we see even in the history of the two Maidans, some changes in the direction of state development as a result of street actions occur only when the possibilities are closed to implement this within the framework of legal procedures. This, I think, is more or less clear. And now in Ukraine, those who have claims to the current president or to someone else in power will try to realize these claims in the elections.

So I will say once again: no terrible crisis in Ukraine is observed. Yes, people live poorly, and this provokes certain moods. But everything is not so bad that they grab the pitchfork. Moreover, as we know, it is quite difficult to improve their lives, and, in general, Ukrainians understand this for the most part, ”said Georgy Chizhov.