Russia will be expensive

The abbreviated version of the article was published in the journal Expert # 47

In the summer of 1990, the “Declaration on State Sovereignty” of the Russian Federation was proclaimed. It is hard to believe, but fifteen years later, 90% of the gross product of sovereign Russia 1 is created on production funds of Soviet origin. Attempts to form a modern economy are still based on a sagging foundation from fragments of productive forces and resources that we got from the USSR. But only now the contours of the problem, which the efforts of the reformers, began to appear in the public mind. Its external manifestation is a phenomenon, erroneously called the "underestimation" of Russian assets.

Take the RF and Yesov companies based on the same type of production technologies and funds, and compare the estimates that the market is ready to set their costs assigned to the unit of the capacity of these funds. The difference will be found ten times not in our favor. For example, in one of the most prosperous sectors, energy in this regard, the value of assets is fifteen times less than in Italy 2 . The worst of all things are in engineering, where the capitalization of Russian enterprises can generally be close to zero or negative. Relatively successful - in extracting sectors, due to the fact that confirmed reserves of natural resources make a significant contribution to the assessment of value. But here, for example, the capitalization of Lukoil is several times lower than that of its investor and partner Conoco Philips.

The pressure of the facts is so irresistible that the topic begins to seep through the sealant of power. In the spring, the word "capitalization" surfaced in the stream of consciousness of the prime minister. At the end of June, the first official report from the energy front about the deplorable state of our value was given by Chubais. Then Stepashin made the myth of the malicious roots of the problem and the possibility of the method of "strategic audit" to strictly indicate the market for the preferences of its assessments. And in the fall, the density of the idea in the air exceeded the MPC: the director of the pilot wholesale-generating company proclaimed its strategic line cost management .

The market is not capable of systematic "underestimation". The beggarly value of Russian corporations reflects the extreme inefficiency of the entire system of property institutions , in particular, the inability to deliberately manage the value of assets. But the cost of the company is an objective indicator of the quality and density of the entire system of its social relations , including contracts with suppliers and consumers, insurance companies and personnel agencies, repairmen and designers, energy, transport, communication companies, state and public regulators. The management of the company is the first step to managing a system of property relations, which together constitute "invisible assets".

If over the foundation of production funds and resources that we still have, to build a modern institutional superstructure instead of the dilapidated Soviet, the country's market capitalization will increase tens of times. The economic superpower will return to the world map and will rightfully take a place in the top three.

The current Russia is an unconditional anti -leader #1: This is the world's largest reserve of poorly lying resources and non -capitalized funds. If you recalculate their potential weight, even by European, but by medium -sided standards of efficiency (we manage to lag behind Brazil), a gross product that is not received annually in the Russian Federation will amount to an astronomical amount of more than five and a half trillions (thousands of billions) of dollars.

Here is the main question of modernity, not for us alone - for the world. Who will act as a subject of recapitalization of Russian wealth, and which of the three basic scenarios will be carried out?

1. With the most unfavorable event for us, foreign owners will be directly determined by the capitalization of Russian natural resources, and aging production funds engaged in the development and processing of these resources are simply thrown into a landfill. Roughly speaking, the Siberian deposits will remain in place, but other units and mining technologies will be used (not by us) for their development; New hydroelectric power stations with Siemens and Ge turbines are mounted into the updated body: this is a scenario for the collapse of the 90s to a full-fledged national catastrophe. This is a reservation country for natives living on political correct deductions from the colonization of the forests, fields and rivers underestimated by them.

2. The second script looks more optimistic. Foreign investors could invest in the recapitalization of our production funds, ensuring their planned repairs and modernizations. But, as already mentioned, this task is not so much production as institutional: in order to get funds for modernization, you must first raise the cost of funds to the level of modern standards. In this situation, our share as the title holders of "iron" will fall to units of percent in the total value of modernized corporations. Those who capitalize property are appropriating it. The result is not fundamentally different from the previous option.

3. The scenario, to which we are obliged to strive, is an urgent rise in the capitalization of the country in a way in which both natural reserves and the main production funds will remain in our property. To do this, it is necessary to approve up the modernized Russian assets as an indestructible intermediary between our natural resources and the world market. This means, in particular, that external investors will receive a guaranteed opportunity to take a share from an increase in the value of assets , but at the same time they should not receive a share in the basic property, nor admission to management . Modern methods of property management and financial technologies allow this to achieve this.

The topic of property management, which my colleagues and I had to study since the beginning of the 80s, is the bottom, although not endless 3 . But the time for methodological discussions has gone. In addition, there was no social space for them. The academic community has no idea about the subject. Owners, managers and experts who fell victim to the "education system" do not own an elementary culture of thinking. And the overwhelming part of the Russian "public", devoid of property as such, is interested in it only in terms of expropriation.

It's time not to discuss - to act. Knowledge should be embodied in managerial tools. The arguments in the dispute will become practical results.

The time has come to launch test programs for recapitalization on the scale of individual Russian regions and industries.

How is the task set? Due to the application of modern methods of property management, standards and technologies of project activities, to ensure the rapid increase in the value of Russian assets, the generation of a new flow of investment in the economy, concentration and management of this stream. Here we can rely on a conceptual reserve created by managers and system workers of the country in the second half of the 20th century, on the latest Western models and institutional management methods, and the experience of the last fifteen years, acquired by the young generation of Russian management property, is unique in its complexity.

Under what conditions will investment come to the management program? The project to increase the capitalization of a particular asset is investmently attractive if the ratio of the expected added value to the risk value is higher than the average market level. Investors will come to where they will be presented with a stream of projects presented at the level of modern standards, so that you can check and make sure that each of them really has a design content, there is a competent team of the project, there is a clear schedule for the receipts of the required funds and their return, there are plausible assessments of profit and risks.

The investment attracting program is logically divided into three stages. Below is said mainly about the first, the second and third are indicated contour.

Theoretically, each stage of the program, being implemented in full, can increase the flow of investments in the region or industry by an order of magnitude. Given the short terms of the program and the early phases of the development of the described approach, it is more realistic to assume that each of the three stages is able to ensure an increase in investment by an average of 2-4 times. Thus, the implementation of the program can lead to the fact that the influx of investment in five years will grow by about an order of magnitude. This is a real task, but its solution will require the maximum concentration of will, faith and knowledge.

The first stage is associated with the mobilization of the resource of entrepreneurial projects. Including venture, i.e. New business ideas at an early stage of implementation and therefore risky. And on the other hand (especially in our conditions), projects to involve assets in the circulation and recapitalization of assets that were created under the Soviet government and can still work, but stand idle due to the lack of demand, the disappearance of suppliers or under the pressure of imports. These projects require restoration, reconstruction of torn chains of production added or the formation of new ones.

It is necessary to sequentially scanning specific areas of economic activity and competitive selection of projects, primarily in need of an investment resource and ready to use it correctly.

Here are two approaches that outwardly seem opposite. The first is systematic support on the competitive basis of independent projects of small and medium -sized entrepreneurs. The second is the restructuring of large production and even clusters of production with underestimated assets based on the concept of "internal entrepreneurship". A large enterprise, whose assets are used inefficiently, turns itself into a business incubator: provides the right to manage elements and components of its own resources to entrepreneurial teams formed from the most advanced employees. The task of the team is to increase the efficiency of using this resource or asset, to earn on this and acquire entrepreneurial competence. And the task of the management of the enterprise as a whole is the centralized support of activities and the optimization of the interaction of such commands.

Regardless of the difference in the starting points, the final product of the first stage of the program will be a conveyor from which investment entrepreneurial projects that have passed competitive selection and the necessary refinement go. All these projects should be presented in a single standard, in the external contour as compatible with existing standards of investment projects and IT products of the Western model. Such a product is in violent demand among investors.

An organization that managed the program can provide external investors for buying balanced packages in the form of shares in a set of standardized entrepreneurial projects. At the same time, for each project, precisely due to the standard of its form, it is easy to obtain the most complete information as to how it is arranged, including forecasts of profitability, risk assessment, an audit of the state of assets. The package should be balanced from the point of view of ensuring that the average risk of heterogeneous projects is significantly lower than for each of the projects, and the average yield is higher than the market.

The result of the first stage is the creation of several centers in the region or industry that form the flows of entrepreneurial projects. The decisive role will play the quality of design standards used in the program. In the absence of the standard, the program cannot be launched from the very beginning. A separate entrepreneurial project, firstly, is most often not large enough to interest external investors. Secondly, as a unique one, it requires unrealistic expenditures of time for trial with its risks, prospects and copyright troubles. It is this situation that we have now.

At the second stage, the center of attention is transferred to the corporate floor - to companies, agencies, funds that at the first stage ensured the search for entrepreneurial projects, competitive selection, standardization, and the formation of packages. Now we are talking about the securitization of the corporate centers themselves to attract investment. By this time, they should develop a business story, turn from competitive commissions and designers of project databases in a corporation that manage entrepreneurial project flows. Then, on the basis of accumulated information, it will be possible to talk about the growth parameters of the cost of these flows management centers. They will release their securities with certain plausible amounts of average profitability. Such centers can be attached to the regions (municipal or district support center for small and medium -sized enterprises), large enterprises (the Center for Restructuring of the Defense Enterprise based on the Methodology of “Internal Entrepreneurship”), may have the character of industry, cluster (corporate center for ensuring entrepreneurial projects in the field of energy, transport or communications).

Finally, at the third stage, it becomes possible to master such a resource as strategic analysis and forecasting of the development of economic activity. At the same time, investors will focus not so much on the current profitability of existing corporate centers, but on forecasting demand, development plans, a technological re -equipment program for a particular cluster. Investors will be invited to invest, say, in the transfer of a group of enterprises related to energy, into energy -saving technologies, or in the development of the transport program, due to the fact that the growth of commodity flows is predicted or already begins through the region. One way or another, the foresight of various trends, assessing the growth of demand or the idea of ​​a technical re-equipment that meets an innovative breakthrough will turn into a specific three-five-year forecast, where it is the maximum demand for investment (and hence the growth of their profitability). The program is built on the third floor, which will already work in the energy sector of correctly predicted trends.

At the first stage, when there is no investment yet, the strategy in itself is quite useless. After the implementation of the first and second stage, the investment flow was launched and sent to corporate channels. Only then can a strategy turn from a document that has scientific and journalistic significance, into a specific guide-book, a direct guide to action for strategic investors. It aims the streams of investment energy in the nodes and poles of priority growth.

The standard management program for five groups of participants.

1. Specific regional or sectoral owners and asset managers who are ready to undertake and are able to develop, but need investments for their projects.

2. Investors of all types, ready to invest in securities, the increase in the cost of which steadily ahead of the dynamics of the market and is provided by the real increase in asset capitalization.

3. The leadership of the region or industry, its units and services, which create the opportunity for the implementation of the program, provide it with certain guarantees, preferences, infrastructure, etc.

4. Entrepreneurial associations and other subjects of civil society, ensuring transparency of the program, monitoring and monitoring its implementation, social support.

5. A management company that provides a competency resource and a system of management standards, which is able to launch the program as mass and clone projects and teams of entrepreneurs.

The triggered discussion about who and what should double us, and whether in two, was irrevocably dried up. From the sites of popular publications and weekly meetings, it is time to evacuate it from humanitarian reasons. And to solve managerial problems, there is an instance known since the first five -year periods: a permanent production meeting . The incident, by the way, is spelled out at the place of work, and not reasoning about it.

The launch of a Soviet machine gun with a landing module for a long time was inhibited due to endless discussion about whether the surface of the moon is hard or soft. The craving sides did not want to take responsibility. Then Sergey Korolev wrote on a clean sheet:

"The Moon Firm."

Put the date and signed.

Notes:

1 "Expert" # 37, October 4-10, 2004, p. 97.

2 And this is according to the optimistic estimates of Chubais. There are more pessimistic. For example, according to the “Vedomosti” capitalization “Kolenergo”, attributed to a unit of power, 41 times lower than the neighbors from the Finnish company Fortum.

3 Отошлю читателей, интересующихся историей вопроса, к материалам 83-85 гг., опубликованным в книге "После коммунизма" (М., 1989), остальных - к циклу статей в "Эксперте" # 44, 47, 48 за 2004 г.