A deadly impasse

Meduza’s combat map shows the latest developments around Avdiivka and the Dnipro

Like our earlier reports on the combat situation in Ukraine, this article takes stock of the recent developments in the battlefield based on open-source information. Meduza has condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine from the very start, and our detailed military analyses are part of our commitment to objective reporting on a war we firmly oppose.

Our map is based exclusively on open-source photos and videos, most of them posted by eyewitnesses on social media. We collect available evidence and determine its geolocation markers, adding only the photos and videos that clear this process. Meduza doesn’t try to track the conflict in real time; the data reflected on the map are typically at least 48 hours old.

Key updates

What we knew as of 5 p.m. Moscow time (2 p.m. GMT, 9 a.m. EDT) on November 7, 2023

The ongoing conversation between Ukraine and the West about the nature of the “deadlock” in which Russia and Ukraine are stuck, according to Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi, has unfolded amid an operational lull on all fronts.

The Russian army, having expended a large amount of equipment in its previous assaults near Avdiivka and Kupyansk, is likely marshaling forces for a resumed offensive. At the same time, the Ukrainian command has continued its operations on the bridgeheads on the Dnipro River’s left bank and in the forested areas near the village of Robotyne in the Zaporizhzhia region with little success. These developments confirm Zaluzhnyi’s words: neither side has yet figured out how to break through its opponent’s artillery-heavy defenses.

Avdiivka

After the initial weeks of the Russian offensive, the goal of which was to surround the AFU’s fortified positions around Avdiivka, Russia’s troops scaled back the intensity of their attacks on Ukraine’s positions. They likely concluded the initial phase of the offensive by late October, though more slowly and with more losses than they had planned.

On its northern flank, the Russian army reached the Avdiivka–Pokrovsk railway and the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant, while on the southern flank, it came up against the AFU’s defense line near the villages of Sieverne and Tonenke. Due to the losses it incurred there, Russia’s command lacks the strength to immediately break through and complete its encirclement.

On the AFU’s northern flank, where the situation was especially dire, Ukraine’s command sent reserves from the 47th mechanized brigade that were previously stationed near Robotyne. The brigade’s armored and tank units launched a counterattack near the village of Stepove and the Avdiivka Coke and Chemical Plant. This ended similarly to the earlier attacks by the Russian army: Ukraine’s armored groups lost tanks and infantry fighting vehicles from artillery fire, anti-tank mines, and missile systems.

The Russian command is likely accumulating forces and ammunition for a new attempt to surround the AFU’s Avdiivka grouping. Ostensibly, this would only require a final push — Russia’s northern and southern groups only need to cover a few kilometers in order to merge. However, a similar situation arose near Bakhmut in the spring, and Russia never managed to complete the encirclement.

The eastern bank of the Dnipro River

This fall, the AFU have managed to build several bridgeheads on the Russian-controlled eastern bank of the Dnipro River. They were repeatedly obstructed from advancing further by the marshy Konka River, a left tributary of the Dnipro, but finally managed to cross it near the village of Krynky with the help of naval infantry and special forces troops.

By the beginning of November, the AFU controlled a significant part of Krynky on the Konka’s eastern bank as well as surrounding forest areas. They managed to transfer several hundred marines with light weapons to the bridgehead. These forces are supported from the western bank by artillery fire and drone operators.

Any further progress by the AFU in this direction has been impeded by Russian artillery and drones. Ukraine’s artillery doesn’t have the range necessary to suppress the enemy in its rear positions.

Meduza is careful in working with data, but mistakes are still possible, and perhaps even inevitable. If you spot one, please let us know by sending an email to reports@meduza.io. Thank you!