Red lines of Russia

The "Lightster Summit" in Kennbankport demonstrated one truth to the whole world: the "Cold War" continues. She hasn't gone anywhere. It has been conducted by Washington from the very moment when the young, sports, sober and adequate Putin replaced the half -dead Yeltsin in the Kremlin. Let no one be confused by friendly smiles and fishing - Churchill, Eisenhower, Kennedy, Nixon and Reagan, were no less friendly towards Soviet leaders. The fact that in the unleashing of the new Cold War is not Russia is guilty of, even American journalists write (see Steven Cohen's article in the American "Nation"). After September 11, 2001, the United States responded to the unconditional support of the United States by the Kremlin’s advance to the borders of Russia, the exit from the software agreement from 1972, the blockade of Kaliningrad, the export of “color revolutions” and the unprecedented bullying of Putin’s bloody regime in the Western media. The reserve of confidence between the parties is exhausted, and no lobsters in the foreseeable future will restore it.

The placement of elements of American missile defense in Eastern Europe is one of the stages of this "Cold War". Everyone understands that these elements are directed against Russia. No one has a doubt that Iran poses a threat. Moreover, Iran, first of all, poses a direct threat to Russia itself. This country seeks to become the leader of the Islamic world. Iran has almost everything for this: a convenient geographical position, human resources, historical traditions and a relatively high level of economic development.

Today, rocket science is the most dynamically developing industry in the Islamic Republic. The country's leadership sets itself the goal of creating by 2015 (i.e., no later than 7-8 years later), the most powerful missile arsenal in the region. At the same time, Tehran categorically refuses to recognize the international regime of control of missile technologies.

Already today, Iran has a single-stage Shevisab-3 liquid rockets with a flight range of up to 1,500 km, capable of impressing the entire territory of the South of Russia up to Rostov and Volgograd. Moreover, with a decrease in the payload, the range of "shusaba" will be at least 2000 km, which will make it possible to directly threaten Kursk, Voronezh and Saratov. It cannot be ruled out that tomorrow, in the case of the activation of Islamic extremism in the North Caucasus and in the Volga region, Iran will not feel like a "defender of Muslims from the infidels." Therefore, cooperation with Iran in the nuclear sphere is a game with matches.

Moreover, the West is quite capable of using Iran, along with the whole Islamic world, against Russia, which Zbignnev Brzezinsky dreams of today. This is not surprising. Already today, despite the words of President Bush about the global threat of Islamic fascism (under which the author of this article is ready to subscribe), the United States actively create “European Iran” in Kosovo, and the independence of this Islamic enclave in the very center of the Balkan powder cellar is a consensus between the Republicans and the Democrats. Let the pro -American position of Prisetina and Tirans are not embarrassed - Shah Iran was also the most pro -American state in the Middle East. For the time being.

Therefore, the installation of anti-throat in Poland does not save the world from the Islamic threat, especially since Russia, after successful tests of the Bulava-30, capable of changing the flight path, has all the possibilities of overcoming any pro. According to the chief researcher of the IMEMO RAS, Major of the reserve Vladimir Dvorkin, the flight of the Russian strategic missiles that can hold the US deterrence, pass away from the anti -missiles zone in Europe, especially since they are designed to defeat missiles on the midnight, rather than overclocking the flight. At the same time, the modern Russian missiles of the Bulava-30 class, the successful test of which has passed the other day, are equipped with so powerful means of counteracting the pro, which include many hundreds of false targets and interference stations, which even with favorable trajectories to defeat only one warhead is needed at least a dozen anti-throat. Nevertheless, there is a direct threat of American PRO for spacecraft on low and median orbits. Since these orbits are constant, which means that they are easily predictable, they are defenseless before the GBI missiles.

However, much more dangerous for Russia will be the placement of GBR (Ground Based Radar) in the Czech Republic, with which it will be possible to view at least the entire European territory of Russia up to the Urals and even Siberia. Russian cosmodrome Plesetsk and Kapustin Yar will fall into the zone of operation of the radar of the X-band (maximum range of 6700 km). The radar will be able to freely track the activities of Russian missile forces in Central Russia and in the Northern Fleet.

The Russian president invited Washington to abandon the construction of the radar in the Czech Republic and use the Gabalinsky radar in Azerbaijan instead and even the Armavir radar under construction directly in Russia. Moreover, the proposals also relate to the placement of the X-band radars at these stations, which can be used both for high-precision tracking of the missile course, and for guidance of anti-throats to the target. These radars do not look into Russia and do not allow you to control its space, but they may well cover the huge area of ​​Islamic countries from Turkey to Pakistan, including such countries of the "Evil" as Iran and Syria. But it is precisely this circumstance - the lack of the opportunity to control objects on Russian territory - and does not suit the Americans. Already after the summit in Kennebankport, US Secretary of State Condoliza Rice said on the air of CNBC television company that, despite Russian proposals, the United States does not intend to refuse to place a radar in the Czech Republic. The fact that the deployment of Pro in Eastern Europe was directed directly against Russia, even such a famous liberal and a Westernik as Yegor Gaidar said in an interview with Echo of Moscow.

The situation with an adapted agreement on ordinary armed forces in Europe (DOVS) is even more absurd. Initially, this agreement was concluded in 1990, in the penultimate year of the existence of the USSR. The essence of the contract was to prevent the deployment of powerful military forces in the border countries of NATO and the Warsaw Treaty, which would be involved in armed conflicts. The limitation of the number of military in the region was provided, their deployment and transfer were regulated, general quotas for NATO and ATS weapons were allocated. Moreover, the “eastern group of countries” originally included the current members of NATO - Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Bulgaria and Romania, and then the former republics of the USSR: Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.

The new, "adapted" DOVS was concluded only in 1999 - during the summit in Istanbul. In the new version, border block quotas and restrictions were replaced by national and territorial quotas of maximum weapons. The contract regulated the number of conventional heavy weapons (aviation, tanks, artillery, armored personnel carriers, etc.), which the army of the subscription country may have in service, including the number of weapons that the army of another country can introduce into its territory. This agreement was signed by 30 European states, except for the three Baltic states and Slovenia (this means that any of the NATO groups can be placed in the territory of any of the Baltic countries).

Adapted to Dovs was ratified only by Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The rest of the participating states, including the United States and their NATO allies, linze the ratification of DOVS-2 with the fulfillment of obligations by Russia, separately (outside the DOVSA framework) assumed at the Istanbul summit regarding the withdrawal of their troops from the territory of Georgia and Moldova. In 1999, the incompetent Boris Yeltsin sat in the Kremlin, and oil prices were $ 18 per barrel. But this is not even the point.

In 1999, the president of Moldova was Peter Luchinsky - a former Soviet party -ocet, a master of backstage intrigue, who played "multi -vector" and abandoned the sharply anti -Russian course of Chisinau, and Yevgeny Primakov overshadowed the foreign policy of Russia. In 1997, the leaders of Moldova and Transnistria signed the Moscow Memorandum (it was also called the "Primakov Memorandum"), which provided for the normalization of relations between Chisinau and Tirapol on the basis of the joint construction of the "general state", and the Transnistribution provided the right to participate in the foreign policy of the "general state" and the right to independent economic activity. By 1999, more than 80 joint documents and declarations of various kinds were signed between the two sides of the conflict, the coordination of the memorandum on the final settlement of the conflict was intensively. In 2001, the President of Moldova became communist Vladimir Voronin (still receiving a Russian general pension), whom Moscow considered its protege for many years, exerting unprecedented pressure on Tiraspol - up to the desire to dump Igor Smirnov in the presidential election in December 2001. Until 2004, Russia diligently carried out Istanbul agreements: the entire 14th Russian army, 350 units of heavy weapons, all tanks, BMP, BTR, heavy artillery were withdrawn from Transnistria. 32 elane trains were taken out, another part was disposed of on the spot.

However, in November 2003, geopolitical realities in the region changed dramatically. Under the pressure of the West and the nationalist opposition, Prosriysky, President of Moldova refused to sign the memorandum para) about the final settlement of the conflict by all parties. Having sharply changed the geopolitical guidelines, Voronin's regime moved to the full -scale blockade of Transnistria. Relations between the parties to the conflict fell to the level of 1992, the political process stalled, the withdrawal of Russian weapons was suspended. However, today the countries of the West - as a condition for the ratification of the adapted DOVS - are required not only to withdraw the remnants of weapons and 900 military personnel who protect them, but also to replace 500 Russian peacekeepers with the "international peacekeeping contingent" under the auspices of the OSCE (we all remember how such "international peacekeepers" parted before the troops of the Croatian Army, attacking the Serbian army. Krai in 1995). In other words, Moscow require completely revising the agreement on the principles of the peaceful settlement of the conflict, signed by the presidents of Russia and Moldova on July 21, 1992.

At the emergency conference of the Dovs participants, held in Vienna on June 12, the performance of the head of the Russian delegation Anatoly Antonov was perhaps the most sharp of the speeches of domestic diplomats over the past twenty years. In particular, he stated: “Russia all these years at the cost of considerable efforts and victims did everything possible, and sometimes impossible to fulfill the contract. We carried out the most significant among all member states of the reduction of ordinary weapons, we observe the discriminatory and not corresponding to our interests the flank restrictions that prevent the movement of troops in our own territory. More Forces from neighboring states and how did our partners answer this?

At this summit, Russia put forward a number of conditions for restoring the viability of the Dovs: the return of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia to the contractual field; lowering the permitted levels of the armament of NATO countries in exchange for two waves of expansion; making a political decision for the abolition of flank restrictions in Russia; Ratification by all countries of the agreement on the adaptation of Dovs no later than July 1, 2008. The suspension of the contract, according to Antonov, is for Russia "not by itself, but the last argument in the struggle to restore its viability." Russia, as the Russian diplomat noted, "will no longer fulfill an outdated contract to the detriment of its own security."

In order, according to, according to the liberal journalist Elena Tregubova, who fled to the West, “return Putin to the framework of a civilized game,” the West applies to Russia “the principle of a whip and a lobster”: summits without ties in a wound at the same time around the surroundings around the perimeter of the sanitary cordon. They try to persuade Russia to concessions on fundamental issues: the signing of the energy charter, atomic cooperation with Tehran, the independence of Kosovo and the surrender of self -predicted republics. On certain issues, you will have to go to concessions. In particular, cooperation with Iran and North Korea in the nuclear sector must be curtailed, and the sooner this is done, the better and safer for Russia. However, Moscow has “red lines”, which it has no right to retreat for a millimeter.

The first such red line is the question of Kosovo. In the 90s, Russia, being unable to protect the Serbs, became an involuntary accomplice of the genocide of the Serbian people. This was especially pronounced in the shameful and criminal mission of Chernomyrdin in 1999, which bowed Slobodan Milosevich to agree to unconditional surrender. According to the UN Security Council resolution? 1244, NATO troops remain in Kosovo on the terms of the territorial integrity of the Union Republic of Yugoslavia, while the autonomous land of Kosovo is recognized as an integral part of the Republic of Serbia. After the collapse of Yugoslavia Kosovo, initiated by the West, is 15% of the remaining territory of Serbia. Over the past eight years before the eyes of NATO “peacekeepers”, the insolent Albanians systematically carried out ethnic cleaning of the region from the Serbs: they cut out, expelled, robbed and erased entire Serbian villages, raped women, burned churches and monasteries, turning some of them into ruins, some into a mosque. Today in Kosovo - this sacred region not only for every Serb, but also for every Orthodox - Serbs remain no more than 10%. If in 1999, 40 thousand Serbs lived in Provincial - the administrative center of Kosovo, now there are no more than 200 people living in constant fear and humiliation, at the Zimmi position ("infidels" in Islam). The Serbs again, like 300 years ago, with indestructible faith and hope look at Moscow. In the West, the Serbs promise immediate membership in the European Union and NATO, as soon as they agree to the independence of Kosovo. But this is another Euro -Atlantic lie, and the Serbs are well aware of this - they are quite taught by the bitter experience of the Deyton agreements, resolutions #1244 and promises of “money rain” in exchange for the issuance of Milosevich in The Hague. If Moscow once again passes the Serbs and votes in the UN Security Council for recognition of Kosovo, I apologize for the high -pairing words, but the story will not forgive it for it.

The second red line is Russia's peacekeeping operation in Transnistria. You can argue whether to recognize or not recognize Moscow for a de facto for almost 17 years of the republic, 97% of the population of which at the referendum on September 17, 2006 voted for joining the Russian Federation, where more than 100 thousand citizens of Russia live and where the consular department of the Russian Federation is a kilometer queue for Russian citizenship. You can come up with thousands of reasons for non -recognition of the PMR - and the lack of a common border (why are Abkhazia and South Ossetia then do not recognize?), And the reluctance to create a precedent for Russian autonomy (and what excuse will be invented when Kosovo will be recognized as the United States and their satellites in a separate order?), And the desire to return Chisinau to its orbit (once again?). However, the only thing that Russia cannot and does not have moral right to agree is reformatting a peacekeeping operation on the Dniester.

On June 19 of this year, the 15th anniversary of the Bender tragedy was the 15th anniversary, when during the operation of the National Army of Moldova the Trojan Hover, more than 489 residents of Transnistria were killed (of which 132 civilians, including women and children), 87 people were missing, 1242 people were injured, 40 of them later died of wounds. This bloody massacre was stopped by the heroic actions of the Transnistrian militias and the forces of the 14th Russian army. When on July 24, in accordance with agreements concluded three days earlier between Yeltsin and Snegur, Russian peacekeepers entered the line of separation of troops, the Transnistrians met them with tears and flowers. Since then - for 15 years - blood does not pour in Transnistria, explosions do not rattle, snipers do not sit on the roofs of high -rise buildings. The peacekeeping operation in Transnistria is the most successful in the world over the past 15 years.

Today, Chisinau is more and more sliding in the situation of the early 90s, when in the capital of Moldova in transport in Russian they spoke only in a whisper. The last election of the mayor of Chisinau, the victory on which the radical Romanian nationalist Dorin Kirtoaca (in detail in my article “The Team of the Doomed”) won was excessive confirmation of this. Статьи, как в официальной, так и в официозной прессе Молдовы, говорят в унисон: новая "военная операция" в "восточных районах Республики Молдова" неизбежна. О своих настроениях не стесняясь говорят вслух на заседаниях члены Объединенной контрольной комиссии от Молдовы. В частности, член ОКК от Молдовы Ион Ляху открыто заявил командующему российского миротворческого контингента Анатолию Звереву: "Для вас главное - чтобы не лилась кровь, а для нас - восстановить законность в регионе". Другой член ОКК - не просто рядовой член или оппозиционный политик, а замминистра внутренних дел Республики Молдова Сергей Головач выразился еще более откровенно: "Благодаря вашим миротворцам до сих пор существует так называемая ПМР".

Российские политики и эксперты государственнического направления очень часто рассуждают, как изменились в лучшую сторону позиции России и самоуважение ее граждан по сравнению с 90-ми годами. Однако именно в годы правления Путина были ликвидированы российские базы в Лурдесе и Камрани, была затоплена станция "Мир", о чем постоянно упоминают оппозиционеры. Если Россия под давлением Запада откажется от принципов соглашений, подписанных Борисом Ельциным в 1992 году (о том, что Россия "готова рассмотреть" это предложение США, заявил в Вене заместитель главы делегации российского МИД Михаил Ульянов), у оппозиции будет еще один повод обрушиться с уничтожающей критикой на Кремль. Нельзя давать им такую возможность ни перед выборами, ни после них. Я уже не говорю о том, что день ухода российских миротворцев из Приднестровья (вошедшего в состав Российской Империи в 1791 году по итогам Ясского договора, где Российская армия присутствует начиная с середины XVIII века и где население хочет видеть свою республику только частью России) станет одним из самых черных дней в отечественной истории.

Нет ничего страшнее и преступнее той ситуации, когда политики и дипломаты без единого выстрела уступают на переговорах то, за что заплачено кровью. Международные саммиты - такое же поле битвы, как плацдармы на открытой местности. Дипломаты, отправляясь на переговоры, должны помнить, что они сражаются за Родину, что за их спиной - Россия с ее тысячелетней историей. И российское гражданское общество должно им в этом помочь.