Where will NATO get it?

Now in Eurasia there are three power blocks that have taken on the difficult task of maintaining its safety. This is the North Atlantic Alliance, the Shanghai organization of cooperation and the organization of the collective security agreement. The most influential organization is NATO. But now she was faced with the "Growth Crisis". On November 27-28, the NATO summit will be held in Riga, which will lead to the restructuring of the organization and put priorities in its activities.

The difficulties of the military bloc was spoke back in September at the seminar of leading European and American experts in the North Atlantic Alliance. After a meeting of experts of the discussion about the current state of NATO ("crisis" or "turning point" development) continued.

There were more supporters of the pessimistic gaze. The theme of the crisis outweighs thoughts about the future strategy. Indeed, if we evaluate the activities of the military bloc in recent years, we will see that the desire to expand to the east outweighs the obligations to resolve conflicts. At the moment, NATO forces are involved in seven operations: in Afghanistan, Bosnia, the support of the African Union in Darfur, in the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Iraq, in Kosovo and the Mediterranean. So far, the block cannot boast of his successes in the above operations.

On the contrary, according to the estimates of Russian experts, after the start of NATO operation, drug production increased in Afghanistan, on which the Alliance actually closes his eyes. Instead of solving the problem of traffic, NATO focused its efforts to advance east. But this movement erodes the possibilities of stable development of the organization, creating additional problems, and also reduces the effectiveness of this institution of international stability. Therefore, it is not surprising that not all of the 26 countries - NATO participants adhere to an alliance expansion plan. It is necessary to deal with already set tasks, and not look for new ones.

It can be noted that an understanding of the need to reform NATO, until trust in it has completely fallen, is still in Europe. Jacques Shirak at the Forum of the French ambassadors in August 2006 stated that "attempts to involve an alliance in non -united missions, ill -conceived partnerships, technical enterprises or an insufficiently prepared expansion can only distort NATO goals."

And Alexander RAR, director of the programs of Russia and the CIS countries of the Kerberian Center (Germany), speaking in Moscow last Friday at the NATO and Safety in Eurasia conference, called on participants to think about the possibility of a Shanghai cooperation organization (SCO) to stabilize the situation in Afghanistan, because the EU capabilities are exhausted. The German political scientist also said that "without the support of Moscow, a military alliance will not be able to successfully achieve its new strategic goals," including the fight against international terrorism, control over non -proliferation of nuclear weapons, stabilizing the situation in the Middle East and the end of the war in Iraq and Afghanistan. From the point of view of the RARA, Russia and NATO need each other.

Thus, it can be stated that in Europe there are opponents of the expansion of the military bloc. However, there is no consensus on the issue of dialogue with Russia. Moscow was not invited to the summit in Riga.

The position of Russia is known in advance, so the USA - perhaps the only country interested in expanding NATO - calculated its participation in the summit. The task is to convince the EU of advancement to the east. The interests of the American power to create restraining systems by the growing power of China and Russia are clearly traced in this matter. Also, specially in front of the summit in Riga, November 17, the US Senate unanimously adopted a bill on the support of the entry of Georgia, Albania, Croatia and Macedonia in NATO, thus, clearly demonstrating its position. The bill, called the "Act of 2006 on the consolidation of freedom in NATO", also says that the United States is ready to support Ukraine’s entry into the Alliance if the Ukrainian side wishes this. But the question of Ukraine’s entry into the alliance from the agenda was removed. Experts associate this fact with protests against NATO teachings in Crimea and the formation of the Yanukovych government.

Despite the lack of an invitation to Riga, Moscow developed a position on this issue and is ready to declare it an international community. According to Andrei Kokoshin, chairman of the State Duma Committee on CIS Affairs, Russia is most worried about two aspects in NATO activities. The inefficiency of the operation of the North Atlantic Bloc in Afghanistan and the "unjustified and very harmful expansion of the alliance to the east." The deputy notes that the close cooperation of Georgia and NATO caused a slowdown in the settlement of situations around Abkhazia and South Ossetia. By the way, the Georgian side refused to sign a document on the rejection of hostilities in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The promotion of the Georgian "Party of War" almost led Russia and Georgia to the possibility of hostilities. Thus, Kokoshin concludes, NATO has turned into a factor, destabilizing the situation in many regions.

Also on the eve of the summit, Moscow activated the activities of the CIS and CSTO. On November 23, 2006, a meeting of the Council of Ministers of Defense of States - members of the organization on collective security was held in Belarus. The issues of further improvement of the military component were considered, in particular, the defense ministers approved a number of documents regarding the management systems and means of the collective security system. Thus, Russia showed that it will impede the advance of NATO east.

What position will the EU and its country will defend the near future. According to experts, in the Latvian capital, the leaders of the military bloc will demonstrate their unity and optimism to the public. However, behind closed doors there will be an extremely serious conversation about the need for an urgent reform of this bulky military organization. Participants and results of operations in Afghanistan, Macedonia and Iraq will discuss.

The intrigue of the summit is the question of whether NATO will refuse the thinking of the Cold War and whether Russia will begin to perceive Russia not as an enemy, but as a strategic ally and partner.

As for the possible invitation to the Alliance of Georgia and Ukraine, the opinions of experts diverge. Gleb Pavlovsky believes that this will not happen in Riga, at least there will be no official invitation. Meanwhile, Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS countries Vladimir Zharikhin thinks that some movement towards Georgia will be demonstrated in Riga. "

In the meantime, only NATO Secretary General JAP de Hoop Scheffer called to preserve the alliance doors open to the former republics of the USSR. “I don’t understand why Russia or any other country should be worried when democracy is strengthened near their borders,” he said in an interview published on Friday The International Herald Tribune newspaper. <...> The expansion of NATO turns into precisely this: more stability and greater democracy. "But it is unlikely that even in case of decisions to continue expansion to the east, it will continue at the same pace. This is evidenced by the need to digest new participating countries.