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Yuri Felshtinsky: On the scenarios of the closed Politburo of Moscow for Ukraine

Update: 11-06-2015 (20:46)

From the site "Kasparov.ru".

! Spelling and stylistics of the author are preserved

The Russian-American historian Yuri Felstinsky, the author of the book “FSB explodes Russia,” written by him in co-authorship with the ex-colonel of the KGB of the Russian Federation, Alexander Litvinenko, poisoned in London Polonia in 2006. The book talks about the causes and organizers of a series of terrorist attacks - explosions of residential buildings in Russia in 1999 and the roles of the FSB in these explosions. Not so long ago, Felshtinsky wrote about Ukraine. In particular, in Kyiv, his work “Third World: Battle for Ukraine” was published, prepared in collaboration with the Kharkov historian Mikhail Stanhev.

In an interview with the NV, Felsteinsky had long left Russia in the United States about who makes decisions in Moscow, what Putin is afraid of and what scenario was invented in the Kremlin for Ukraine

- What could be the new Kremlin scenario regarding Donbass instead of the closed project "Novorossia"?

- No one said that the New Russia project is closed. Yes, it was originally planned to be completed in September 2014. But Russian troops in eastern Ukraine stalled. I do not want to say that they stalled only because of the confrontation of Ukrainians or only because of the discontent of the civilized world by Russian aggression in Ukraine. The reasons why the Russian troops concentrated on the Russian-Ukrainian border have not passed into a general offensive are unknown. I think they are still unknown.

Of course, no one tells about the plans of the Kremlin. But from time to time a certain information comes. Recently, I was a participant in the Radio Liberty radio program, and my interlocutor was the director of the Moscow Center of Carnegie Dmitry Train, an officer of the GRU, sent by the Main Intelligence Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Federation for this quite good position, allowing him to travel around the world under the cover of “Xiva” of the director of the American-Moscow structure. So, the training was absolutely openly said that Putin’s task is to force Ukrainians and NATO to agree that the demarcation line should take place where the “separatists” draw it, and that Kyiv should negotiate with “separatists”.

At the same time, training recalled the presence of atomic weapons in Russia, they say, it is not necessary to pretend that it can never be used, and that Putin’s intentions are extremely peaceful; And, they say, if not Putin, the war would have flared up in the entire region. What exactly did the training in mind by the "region" did not have time to clarify (the transfer time came to an end, and they did not give me a word). But it turned out on training that during the occupation of Crimea and Eastern Ukraine it was time for Putin to give the Nobel Prize of the world.

So the Kremlin minimum program regarding the Donbass is voiced: to hold the Donbass for the "separatists", insisting on Kiev’s recognition of the “separatists” by the legal government of the occupied territories; continue to escalate the situation in the regions of military operations, capturing new and new areas; to achieve the actual recognition of a special independent status of territories occupied by Russia.

- Is the program similar to the Transnistrian script?

-Yes, conditionally this minimum program can be called the Transnistrian option for Ukraine, with the only amendment that Russia is not going to stop military operations in eastern Ukraine. According to the Russian side (and "separatists"), this is impossible to do due to the confrontation of the Ukrainian government; According to the Ukrainian army, this is impossible to do, because the "separatists" constantly conduct military operations and grab new pieces of territories. But, one way or another, reconciliation is not expected and will not.

From the point of view of the Kremlin, this constant bloodletting achieves the impossibility of reforms in Ukraine, without which Ukraine cannot enter the EU; At the same time, the presence of hostilities excludes the possibility of Ukraine’s entry into NATO. In the domestic Russian market, Putin successfully uses a military conflict with Ukraine for the next reversal of the country into the Soviet past. So Putin, of course, does not consider his Ukrainian policy to fail.

Well, in general, he receives an unheard of charge of pleasure from the fact that he will go down in history not by the president set by the oligarchs, but to the villain who seized power in Russia on the instructions of the KGB-FSB. After all, we do not understand this, but for Putin this is the main thing. He did not come from Russia to create from Russia in 2000. He came to ensure that the whole world began to be afraid of Russia again, as the USSR was once afraid of. Because for Putin to be afraid and respected is the same thing, according to the old Russian proverb: it is afraid - it means respecting.

-What then is the maximum program?

- The capture of Ukraine, the seizure of Belarus, the capture of the Baltic states, the restoration of the Soviet Union. Do we have evidence that this program is implemented as far as possible? There is: the introduction of the Soviet anthem as the anthem of Russia, the renaming of the Russian news agency in TASS (telegraph agency of the Soviet Union), the capture of Crimea, the invasion of Ukraine.

Summer, which is just beginning, historically the most dangerous period for the start of land operations. So June-September is the period during which we should expect the beginning of Russia's full-scale attack on Ukraine. Whether it will happen - depends on a number of factors, and almost all of them are beyond our knowledge, since literally a few people decide the fate of Russia and Ukraine in Moscow, all - immigrants from the KGB. What is the "Politburo" at its closed meeting will decide is unknown.

- Will the Kremlin try to capture more territories now in order to strengthen its negotiation position and achieve the conclusion of third Minsk agreements?

- The problem is that the Kremlin does not need Minsk agreements at all. Minsk agreements for Putin is a military trick for regrouping forces and rethinking the situation. They are compiled so that Russia does not take any obligations on them. All obligations are assumed by "separatists", Kyiv and even Europe - but not Russia. The interpretation of the Minsk agreements can be any - any of the parties. It is absolutely impossible to figure out who violated what was violated, the “separatists” do not bear responsibility to anyone.

The most striking example is a downed Malaysian plane. Take the most “simple” option that he was shot down by “separatists”. And what? Does the world community have any tools for influencing these separatists? No, there is no such tool. Tomorrow, "separatists" can bring down another 10 aircraft, and nothing will change in this regard: it is impossible to punish the "separatists".

- If so, what terms of the contract will arrange Putin?

- Putin has the logic of a bandit and a kagbeshnik, which is the same. I do not want to say that the KGB officer and the bandit are the same thing, but their logic is exactly the same. Putin does not negotiate. He takes as much as he is allowed to take. They will allow the whole world to take - take the whole world. They will not allow you to take anything - he will be surprised and retreat.

For decades, the American government was only engaged in the fact that it established relations with the Soviet - with Lenin, Stalin, Khrushchev, Brezhnev. Constantly the establishment of relations went. But it turned out that it was necessary not to establish relationships, but adequately respond to the danger emanating from the strategic enemy. And as soon as Reagan formulated this strategic danger, calling the USSR the "Empire of Evil", it became clear that it was necessary to resist, and not to establish a relationship once again. And the Soviet Union could not stand the confrontation and fell apart.

Now, alas, we are stepping on the same rake. The American government (in the broad sense of the word - I do not mean the Obama administration) once again trying to establish relations with Putin, not realizing that Putin and Russia until March 2014 and after March 2014 are different people and the country.

Now you need not to establish relationships, thinking about how to surrender Crimea and Eastern Ukraine so that both Putin is peaceful and to leave Eastern Europe independent. Now the time has come to withstand the newly rising old strategic enemy - the former USSR, present -day Russia, and in this way to achieve peace, more precisely - the taming of Putin and maintaining the integrity and independence of Eastern Europe. Most likely, as a result of this confrontation, the Russian Federation, as once the Soviet Union, will collapse and decay into several independent states, and Russia, in the end, will become just Russia.

- How do you evaluate Russia's chances to cancel or weaken sanctions?

- I do not consider the sanctions serious. The latest episodes have shown that Russia is ready to go for further aggravation and sanctions, in fact, is not afraid. The sanctions are terrible for the country, which is part of the world market, since any sanctions hit the exchange, on currency, and the government, elected people (and in a normal country, the government as a result quietly resigned). And in Russia, the government is not elected, it does not answer the people and the voter, it does not plan to resign, and Putin sincerely does not care how much the Russian Exchange and the Russian market will fall as a result of sanctions. Actually, both this and the other falls before our eyes, and we see how Putin does not give a damn about it and how his rest is lying, that the fall of the national currency is “profitable”.

So no one will weaken the sanctions, no one will cancel them, and if we survive the summer, Russia will be torn between the “neither peace nor war”, and Ukrainians will die hundreds or thousands, and we will not recognize Russian losses, since they have just been classified by a special government order.

Putin belongs to the type of statesmen who experience physical pleasure from the fact that somewhere, following his orders, people are dying. At the same time, he respects himself very much for not being afraid to give orders to kill people. He began this from the Second Chechen War, then in Georgia, in 2008, continued. Now here is Ukraine ...

- If Putin decides on a new escalation in the Donbass with the large -scale participation of Russian troops, can public discontent pose a threat to its regime?

- Putin is a dictator. The people surrounding him, the people who control Russia, is an ordinary junta. These people are not afraid of the public, since the public does not have tools for influencing the Kremlin. Simply speaking, these people are only afraid of strength. And the public does not have strength. In Russia, no one has forces at all, except for the FSB, which controls Russia.

This was Putin’s initial plan: to create a system in which in the Russian Federation no one other than the FSB will have power: neither the Duma, nor the government, nor the army (the army in Russia never had power), nor the political parties, nor the wealthy businessmen (former oligarchs), nor at the public, nor at the press, nor at the Supreme Court. The power in Russia is only for the FSB, part of which Putin is all his junta. Outside Russia, Europe and America have power. Actually, they pose a threat to Putin's regime.