The night of horror

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What we have to date.

Russia demonstrates the willingness to fight. The Crimea is already a regular Russian army, although they deny it.
Ukraine demonstrates the willingness to fight. Smart people say that the Army of Ukraine is ineffective and will fall apart quickly. But there is a "right sector". Ukrainians, as it were to relate to them, are not Georgians (may the closest friend forgive me - well, historically they are not warriors. Not all of them to be). The traditions of partisan wars are in their blood. Suppose that half of the 400,000 Ukrainians hates Russia. This is 20 times more than in Chechens in 1994. Let them fight 3 times worse than those Chechens. In total, we will get combat losses almost 7 times more than in the first Chechen.
In the West, almost nothing is clear. It may be that, except for Obama inhabitation in Sochi, nothing will happen. Or maybe it so that the “peacekeepers” of NATO will appear in the Crimea today (the government of Ukraine has just sent an official invitation to them). The readiness of the West to fight (Obama came to power in the wake of dissatisfaction with the war in Iraq, and 2 of his closest minister, Kerry and Hagel, generally participants in the anti -war movement of the war in Vietnam. Their philosophy is simple - without extreme necessity, no extreme necessity does not climb anywhere). It is clear that Europe will not fight without the United States - there is nothing. It is clear that nobody will apply Yao - everyone wants to live even after a military defeat. And it is clear that in the case of a military clash of Russia and the West without Yao, Russia will last about a week, and most likely everything ends with Putin’s overthrow by its own environment so that the new government requests peace and can put everything on it. It is also not clear whether there will be sanctions. If desired, the West, with their help for a year without any war, will drive Russia into the Stone Age. But they may not be at all, or they can be non -muddy.

I have 3 options for the development of events.
The first has already described above - today the troops are landing from Russia and the USA. Military defeat of Russia, occupation is also possible. The only plus is that the war will end very quickly, and the country will be not the same person who has been crazy yesterday.
Second. Third. A transaction has already been concluded with the West that no one has yet known about. In the West, therefore, they are not very sprinkled with weapons, because they are in no hurry to die for Ukraine. Russian troops quickly occupy Eastern Ukraine. They do not go further, rightly anticipating the bloody bath, and NATO troops appear there, but do not enter into clashes. The regular Ukrainian army cannot and does not want to fight. But after a few months, Bandera begins a full partisan. A powerful stream of zinc coffins is established in the central regions of Russia. The punitive actions necessary for the fight against partisanism against the civilian population will outraged public opinion in the West will not leave the local governments of choice, even if they do not need war at all. There will be sanctions, there will be assistance to Ukraine with weapons and training of troops. The economy is already flying to hell (see the statistics of the last months). The sanctions will finish it very quickly. Do you even imagine how all Russian production is tied to Western sales markets? (I’ll keep silent about trading at all). The rapid return of poverty. There will be an arrest of a stab fund and Russian real estate abroad (do not believe? Saddam Hussein did not believe in 1990 either). The widespread dissatisfaction with the war and Putin, a hundred times an increase in the support of the West of the opposition (until now, the crumbs from the bar table were thrown from her only because Putin knew that the light did not meet with it with a wedge). The collapse of the regime is about a year later, again, most likely, by the palace coup. The country in ruins.
Third. Under the guarantees of Russia, the USA and the European Union, the Ukrainian government adopts laws on the wide autonomy of Russian -speaking regions and on the state status of the Russian language. Military anxiety is canceled. Yanukovych is forgotten forever. Ukraine becomes a country where hatred between the East and the West is already indefinitely and is only waiting for the moment to break out. The reputation of Russia as a potential incorporate for large military conflicts is also relentless (the United States has this, and they have nothing good from this). A sharp increase in Russophobia around the world. The head of Russia remains a man who, after the Olympics, clearly believed that he was knee -deep, and who would find where he would get involved yet.

It is not monstrous, you have to pray on the third option. He, I think, is the most likely.
It’s not long to wait.

* The material is mentioned by the organization of the right sector, whose activities are prohibited in the Russian Federation