Revenge for revenge

The United States warned Israel about the impending missile strike from Iran in the next day. Is this the beginning of a new war?

Inevitable answer

U.S. President Joe Biden, during a press conference, said that Iran probably plans a blow to Israel in response to the killing of the Islamic Revolutionary Revolutionary Corps in Damascus. “They [Iran] threaten to deliver a significant blow to Israel in the near future,” said Biden. “As I said to the Prime Minister [Israel Benjamin] Netanyahu, our commitment to Israel’s safety from these threats from Iran and his proxies is unshakable.”

Many authoritative international media predict Iran’s ambulance on Israel. The Wall Street Journal writes that the attack on Israel from Iran “may be inevitable”. The interlocutors of Bloomberg are also talking about this.

Bloomberg sources suggest that the blow will be delivered by rockets or drones from the territory of Lebanon, where Hizball is operating. The targets will probably become military, not civilian objects, according to the United States. The attack may occur in the coming days, the interlocutors of the agency said.

On April 1, aviation struck one of the buildings of the Iranian Embassy in the Syrian Damascus. Not a single country took responsibility for this attack. As a result of the shelling, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Revolutionary Revolutionary (KSIR) department of Al-KudS, Brigadier General Mohammad Zhadi, General Mohammad Hadi Hadji Rakhimi, died.

On the night of April 4, the Supreme Leader of Iran Ayatollah Khamenei published threats in Hebrew: “With God's help, we will force the Zionists to repent of a crime associated with an attack on the Iranian consulate in Damascus.”

On April 10, Ayatollah Khamenei said that Israel “must be punished and punished” for an attack on the Iranian embassy in Syria. “When they attack the consulate, it is like they attacked our land,” Hameni said in his speech on the occasion of the end of the Muslims of the month of Ramadan. “The evil regime made a mistake and must be punished, and he will be punished.”

Netanyahu in response warned that the Israeli army "would act on a simple principle - to harm the one who causes it to us."

On April 11, The Wall Street Journal wrote that, according to the person familiar with the situation, Israel is preparing to be directed by Iran on the southern or northern part of the country in the next 24–48 hours. However, a source, informed by the Iranian leadership, said that although the attack plans are being discussed, the final decision has not yet been made.

Follow the ritual

“In the coming days, Iran can try to somehow observe the ritual of revenge for his generals,” says the Israeli military observer David Sharp, “New-Europe,”. - This is understandable and without warning Joe Biden. At the official point of view, promoted by Tehran, the blow was inflicted on the building of the Iranian embassy. That is, Generals Ksir died on Iranian land. This is an aggravating circumstance requiring a serious reaction from the Iranian authorities. ”

“The Israeli strike in Damascus was liquidated by generals and officers of the Xirir who led all the anti-Israeli activities in Syria and Lebanon for many years,” says the Israeli military expert David Gandelman, ”says New-Europe. - Iranian representatives in Syria, Israel eliminated before, but not so high -ranking. This is a clear signal to Iran that all games in the proxy will lead to not only dolls, but also Iranian puppeteers. ”

“It should be noted that Iran has long been promising terrible revenge for Israel,” the Security Expert, a former employee of the special services and police of Israel, Sergei Middal, recalls “New-Europe”. - So far, nothing serious came of this. Generals Ksir was liquidated on April 1. Almost two weeks have passed. But Iran did not strike. But not so long ago, Israel was eliminated on the border of Syria and Iraq, Colonel Ksir, who was responsible for the entire smuggling of drones. Recently, many high -ranking Xirir officers have been killed. They also promised to take revenge on them. We are waiting. "

Sergei Migdal says that it was the KSIR killed at the Iranian Embassy in Damascus Brigadier General Hassan Mahdaui (nickname Mohammad Zhadi) met with representatives of Yahya Sinvara (leader Hamas in the Gaza Strip) and took part in the development of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023. Israel has already destroyed many high -ranking leaders of Hamas. For example, on January 2, the deputy leader of the organization in Lebanon Salekh al-Aruri was liquidated.

According to David Handelman,

A multi -theatrical war with the participation of all the Right Police and Iran himself has been practiced for many years on the exercises of the AOI General Staff (Israeli Defense Army).

In addition, joint exercises with the US Armed Forces were repeatedly conducted both on anti -aircraft and air defense, and on striking directly on Iran. The current statements by President Joe Biden about the US Security Security Security Safety, and the visit of the Central Commander (central command of the US Armed Forces), General Michael Kurilla in Israel, are also connected with the same: this, in addition to political declarations, is the clarification of positions, possible reclosures to the Iranian response and operational plans, both of the Island and joint. The further depends on what kind of answer Iran will choose and how effective it will be.

Iran’s answer

How can Iran answer? David Sharp has several options. All of them are quite unpleasant. This is a direct aggression of Iran from its territory against Israel. Or the attack by the hands of his proxy-“Hizballa”, Husitov, some of the pro-Iraq and Syria of the Iraqi and Syria on the military facilities of the IDF (Israeli Defense Army). Or, for example, a terrorist attack against Israeli citizens abroad, shelling and undermining of embassies and individual tourists. Depending on the seriousness of the damage caused, the Israeli impact of retaliation will follow. Of course, there is a significant risk of escalation in this.

In the expert environment, there is an opinion that Iran’s blow can be limited, will be applied to military targets and should not lead to an explosive escalation. At the same time, some action will occur in the near future. Iran is ready. Sources in intelligence and military analysts converge this. Perhaps in Tehran they expect the end of Muslim holidays.

“Not just for so many decades Iran has grown various proxies and proxy police throughout the Middle East. It is not to fight himself, ”says David Handelman. -In Tehran they remember the Iran-Iraq war well and would not want to involve Iran in a direct military clash. If the answer is to increase the attempts of terrorist attacks against Israeli and Jewish objects around the world and the qualitative and quantitative strengthening of the actions of “Hizballa” and the proactive police from the territory of Syria, Iraq and Yemen, this is one, and the direct blow from the territory of Israel will mean a change in the many years of paradigm of the Iranian strategy, and there are increasing chances of a direct war, which, in the principle Iran still tried to avoid with all his might. "

“Iran has something to attack Israel right from its territory,” emphasizes David Sharp. - This is primarily a significant number of ballistic and cruise missiles of different types of required range, which can reach Israel. Also, the Iranian army is armed with drones, such as Shakad-136, capable of reaching Israeli cities.

However, judging by numerous signs, Iran has something to lose. Tehran understands that a direct clash with Israel will lead to the fact that the Iranian army and industry will be inflicted total damage.

After all, there is a great chance that the United States will also come into conflict. No wonder the Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei in December called on his subordinates and supporters to restraint. "

“Iran, apparently, is not ready for an open large war with Israel,” says Sergey Migdal. - Today, Jerusalem has a lot of funds to solve the Iranian problem on their own. But we are talking about probable US intervention. Biden directly stated that the United States would support Israel in the event of Tiegran's aggression. No wonder the head of Centcom, General Michael Kurill, flew from Bahrain to Israel and immediately went to the underground bunker of the General Staff for the IDF. The United States has significant forces in the Middle East today. These are hundreds of bombers located on military bases and aircraft carriers, thousands of cruise missiles, ready to hit the positions of the Iran’s army, its industry, infrastructure, oil industry and other most important objects. In response, Iran may try to fire the US military. But Tehran understands how fast and bloody its end will be. ” In addition, in recent years, Iran has in every possible way to demonstrate its friendliness to the world community in the hope of lifting economic sanctions.

With other hands

True, according to Sergei Migdal, we can assume that Tehran will act with the hands of his satellites. This is called the "strategy of a thousand bites."

“Iran has enough puppets,” continues Sergey Migdal. “But they are all busy now.” Hamas and Islamic Jihad are already fighting in the gas sector. The Yemenskoy Husites have long declared war on Israel. So far, the merchant ships of other countries go. “Hizballa” conducts limited fighting in the north of Israel. The pro -war police and Iraq, also from time to time, are trying to launch rockets and drones through Israel. These are all the allies of Iran in this war. ”

David Sharp says that until recently, Iranian satellites attacked military bases of the United States in the Middle East. However, after three American soldiers died in Jordan, the United States responded with a painful blow and, apparently, threatened Iran at a culouire level. The attacks on the bases stopped.

Rockets and drones can launch militants of various Shiite police from the territory of Iraq and Syria. Husites can again attack some ship passing somewhere near the Persian Gulf. But it will not look like a straight revenge of Iran.

“Perhaps a further aggravation of the conflict with Hizballa,” continues David Sharp. - But in this case, the solution depends on Israel. The chances of the military resolution of the Hizballa issue are growing every week. Hizballa has a huge missile potential today. It is possible that terrorists have more missiles than the leading armies of the world. However, it seems that a significant escalation is not needed by Hizballa itself. The war with Israel will lead to catastrophic consequences for both terrorists and the entire Shiite community and other citizens of Lebanon. Moreover, the “Hizballa” first began a new round of conflict, firing at Israel on October 8, 2023 and continuing his attacks to this day. Another escalation is possible if one of the parties causes the other very significant damage and the victims will have to give a decent answer. Any other option will be recognized as a demonstration of weakness and invitation to repeated blows. This situation of the exacerbation that has gone out of control is possible at any time. ”

Sergei Migdal is sure that it was Iran who stopped Hizball, who, after the attack on October 7, was eager to support Hamas with all his might. Our interlocutor is convinced that Tehran prohibits terrorists from the Southern Lebanon Firing of the depths of Israel, limiting himself only to the border zone. At the same time, over the six months of the war, only a few Israeli soldiers and more than three hundred militants died in the conflict zone in the north of the country. Among them are the commander of the Hizballa special forces Radwan Ali Ahmed Hasin. This causes dissatisfaction with ordinary members of the organization.

Israel has already bombed the Khizballa missile warehouses in many parts of Lebanon, including the north-east of the country. At the same time, heavy missiles of a large radius of action are often destroyed. But terrorists do not use such types of weapons now, apparently afraid of the response of Israel.

According to Sergei Migdal, Hizballa, which has become a political movement in Lebanon, should take into account the interests of the country's inhabitants. It is clear that the war will destroy seaports, airports and other most important infrastructure of Lebanon, and so in a state of devastation. The beginning of a large conflict with a high probability will lead to the beginning of a new round of civil war in Lebanon. Indeed, today various “folk police” of Christians, Druzov and other religions and nationalities are actively armed.

At the same time, according to David Sharp, a thoughtful massive blow of Israel on Hizball in Lebanon is also possible. Here you need to monitor the mobilization of the military in Israel. It can occur on the eve of the beginning of hostilities. For a successful attack on Hizball in South Livan, a combination of good weather and a relatively calm situation in the gas sector is required, in a common opinion. These factors have come together today. In the case of an agreement on the ceasefire in the gas sector, forces will be freed that can be used in the operation against the Hizballa.

Terrorist attacks abroad

The organization of the attack in the third country in relation to the embassy or Israeli citizens, according to David Sharp, is possible. In 1992, the Israeli embassy was blown up in Buenos Aires. Not so long ago, terrorists have hunted Jewish tourists in various countries of the world. In 2012, in Burgas (Bulgaria), as a result of the explosion of the bus, six terrorist were killed and 32 civilians were injured, among whom were many Israeli tourists. But it takes time to prepare such an attack. Probably months. It is necessary to collect and prepare a group, get everything necessary, including explosives and weapons.

“Exploring the Israeli embassy in one of the countries of the world is a very difficult task,” says Sergey Migdal. - Such terrorist attacks are prepared for months or years. It turned out to be successful to carry out such a terrorist attack only in Argentina - a country with the highest corruption and a low level of security. ”

The beginning of the end

“Speaking about the gas sector, you need to understand that the time has come. Ramadan and the holidays end, ”remarks David Sharp. - A transaction for the exchange of hostages can confuse plans for an offensive on RAFA. To start the operation, knowing that it will have to be interrupted in a long -term truce is not the most successful option. Israel cannot accept the most important requirement of terrorists - a complete stop of hostilities. But Hamas eventually requires guarantees for a complete ceasefire for an indefinite period. ”

David Sharp lists other requirements of Hamas: six weeks of a truce to start, the release of 800–900 prisoners from Israeli prisons in exchange for 40 hostages, 100 of which have lifelong sentences for the murder of the Israelis, the withdrawal of the troops for the troops from the enclave, including the abandonment of the corridor cutting between the central and northern parts. The Israeli observer suggests that it is possible to free all Palestinian terrorists from Israeli prisons in exchange for all Israeli prison. Including those who participated in the massacre on October 7.

According to Sergey Midal, on Thursday morning on April 11, the next raid of Israeli defense forces began in the central part of the gas sector.

Probably, the troops will cut the enclave into several separate sites. Also, the objectives of the operation can be cities-the camps of refugees Deir El-Balah and Nusirat.

It was in Nusirate that the third Hamas number in the Gaza sector Marvan Issa was destroyed, four concrete bombs were dropped on the bunker of the Israeli Air Force.

But the main goal for the IDF, according to our interlocutors, remains the city of Rafach, located near the border with Egypt. There, refugees who left the northern and central parts of the enclave accumulated there today. Their number can reach 1.5 million people together with local residents. Israel coordinates with the Americans the construction of a special pier, according to which, to the new refugee camp located in the coastal zone, the supply of humanitarian goods and food will take place. After that, it will be possible to start the assault on Rafakh. Sergei Migdal is sure that Yahya Sryvar and the leader of the military wing Hamas in the Gaza sector Muhammad Def will not surrender and on the eve of the close capture they can blow themselves up with the hostages.

“Regarding the situation in Gaza, now a fork,” says David Gandelman. -If the current round of negotiations on hostages leads to an agreement, this means a ceasefire for a month to be discussed for a month and a half, and the main stumbling block now is that Hamas still insists on constant, and not on a temporary end of fire, to which Israel does not agree. Временное прекращение огня, разумеется, отодвигает дальнейшие боевые действия. Если договориться не получится, то на повестке дня Рафах с его четырьмя батальонами ХАМАС и Нусират и Дейр-эль-Балах с еще двумя. Основное направление — Рафах, без разгрома ХАМАС там нельзя говорить о достижении поставленной цели свержения власти ХАМАС в Газе и ликвидации его военных возможностей. Пока ориентировочно готовность к операции в Рафахе в мае. Ведется подготовка эвакуации оттуда беженцев, в том числе в оставленный армией район Хан-Юнеса, министерство обороны Израиля закупает дополнительные палатки для создания там новых палаточных лагерей беженцев. Но Рафах — вопрос в основном политический, а не военный, США по-прежнему давят и предлагают ограничиться там мелкими точечными рейдами вместо полномасштабной операции, и на эту тему не прекращаются консультации. Но помимо этого, многое зависит также от развития событий на иранском направлении, при некоторых вариантах мы будем смотреть уже не на Газу, а в другие стороны».

На Израиль оказывается крайне брутальное давление со стороны США, подтверждает Давид Шарп. Союзники всеми силами пытаются предотвратить операцию в Рафахе. В этом их интересы совпадают с желаниями ХАМАС. Вопрос: хватит ли у израильских властей воли, чтобы сопротивляться давлению Соединенных Штатов и сделать необходимый шаг по наступлению на Рафах?

Террористы видят, что гуманитарной помощи, пищи и прочих товаров населению сектора хватает. Им выгодно тянуть время, выдвигать новые условия и ждать капитуляции Израиля.

«Я уверен, что общевойсковая операция на территории сектора Газа должна быть доведена до конца, — заявляет Давид Шарп. — Без взятия под контроль Рафаха и лагерей беженцев Нусират и Дейр-эль-Балах в центральной части анклава нельзя будет говорить о полном демонтаже организованной структуры ХАМАС в регионе. Это первый этап, необходимый для победы. За ним последуют месяцы постепенного снижения потенциала террористов в этих местах. В дальнейшем его придется удерживать на приемлемом низком уровне, как это сейчас происходит в Иудее и Самарии».

«После 7 октября Израиль не чувствует себя в рамках каких-либо ограничений, — заявляет Сергей Мигдаль. — Даже прямые указания США о прекращении огня в секторе Газа остаются неисполненными. Проявляя тактическую гибкость, израильские власти, насколько это можно судить, не собираются отказываться от основной идеи полного уничтожения структуры ХАМАС в регионе. ХАМАС готов идти на сделку, если в ней будет учтено требование о постоянном прекращении огня. Израиль фактически ответил, что готов прекратить войну, но для этого ХАМАС должен полностью капитулировать. У премьер-министра Израиля Биньямина Нетаньяху два пути: покончить с властью террористов или уйти на покой».