Translated material
Baby boom estimate
The first demographic policy program was born in Russia
Next week, the government will begin to formulate a plan for the preparation of bills to improve the demographic situation in the country, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov said the other day. According to him, first of all, we are talking about changes regarding child care benefits, payment for preschool services and other measures that the president spoke about in his recent annual address to the Federal Assembly.Meanwhile, the public organization “Business Russia” has already prepared a National Program for the Demographic Development of Russia. Its implementation will cost 560 billion rubles. per year. For comparison, the state currently spends about 50 billion on all child benefits. The proposed amount of funding is approximately 2% of GDP, this is the average European standard. However, it will not be possible to get by with a little bloodshed in this matter. As Valery Elizarov, head of the Center for the Study of Population Problems at Moscow State University, said, small amounts only discredit demographic policy and create the impression that money cannot help in this matter.
As one of the authors of the program, president of the Aton investment group Evgeniy Yuryev, said, it’s time to stop choosing what is better - raising the birth rate or reducing the death rate. We need to do both, and in addition, pursue a conscious migration policy. Every year Russia loses 700-800 thousand people. Therefore, the authors of the report believe, it is necessary to increase the birth rate by 200-300 thousand, reduce the mortality rate by the same amount, and the remaining niche will be easily filled by Russian-speaking citizens from the CIS.
The authors of the program propose a very diverse set of measures that should make Russian families want to have two or three children. It includes the 250 thousand rubles announced by the president. for the second and each subsequent child, and an increase in the rate of the standard tax deduction for children, and solving housing problems at public expense. In addition, the authors of the program believe that it is necessary to form in society “moral values and attitudes towards creating a complete, legally married family with two or more children.”
About 340 billion rubles should be spent on increasing the desire to be fruitful and multiply. from the budget, and in addition, 81 billion rubles. lost income. The direction “Improving health and reducing mortality” will cost less - 114 billion rubles. from the budget and 2 billion lost revenues. This money will be used to finance measures to reduce mortality from injuries and poisonings, reduce road injuries, as well as measures to promote a healthy lifestyle for the population.
But the section “Improving Migration Policy” will cost only 20 billion rubles. Although here, the authors admit, lies a huge number of difficulties. “The task of preserving Russians and preventing interethnic conflicts contradicts short-term economic interests,” admits Mr. Yuryev. A typical example is the Far East. Employers prefer to deal with Chinese people who are willing to work a lot for little money and who do not suffer from the well-known Russian vice of drunkenness. But because of them, Russian citizens remain unemployed. “Russia should only allow into its territory those who will not upset the balance,” the authors of the report believe. But how to achieve this, taking into account practically transparent borders, is still unclear.
The authors propose to create a special category of “permanent residents of Russia” - those who are citizens by birth or received it at least 15 years ago. They should receive special support measures. In addition, special status should be extended to specific subjects of the federation with the most unfavorable demographic situation.
However, business must also make its contribution. It is necessary to influence both by personal example (Mr. Yuryev, for example, has five children) and by creating a favorable environment at his own enterprises. “All my workers know that after maternity leave they will be welcomed back with open arms,” Alena Nikolaeva, deputy chairman of Business Russia, shared her experience.