Translated material
Gas issue
Israel doesn't know how to end Operation Cast Lead
On the 18th day of hostilities in the Gaza Strip, Israeli leaders are still debating whether to continue the IDF's Operation Cast Lead or move to the negotiation stage. The Israeli army command believes that in its current form the operation has exhausted itself: in order to continue to inflict damage on the infrastructure of the ruling Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) in the sector, it is necessary to expand the combat zone. And although there were reports last night that the Israelis were about to expand the ground operation by bringing in more reservist soldiers, the government faces a difficult dilemma: whether to begin this so-called third phase of the operation or whether it is time to move on to a diplomatic settlement phase.On Monday evening, the IDF press service reported that additional reservist units had been introduced into the Gaza Strip. However, according to Vremya Novostei, we are talking about military personnel who were called up at the very beginning of the operation. Their task is to assist the current group of Israeli army forces, and not to capture any objects in the sector.
The Israeli government's hesitation to continue the military operation can be explained by differences between members of the so-called “narrow security cabinet,” which includes Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni and Defense Minister Ehud Barak. In Israel, this “narrow cabinet” is also called the Russian word “troika” - based on the number of its participants. According to Haaretz, Barak and Livni are in favor of ending the operation, while Olmert insists on continuing it. The head of the Israeli Foreign Ministry points out that the continuation of the operation and, as a result, further casualties among the civilian population of the sector, where more than 900 people have already died, a third of whom are children, will damage the image of the country and, in general, the interests of Israel abroad.
Yesterday, the UN Human Rights Council, at a meeting in Geneva, adopted a resolution condemning Israeli actions that led to “massive violations of human rights” in the Palestinian Authority. 33 out of 47 members of the organization, including Russia, voted for the resolution. Canada opposed the document. 13 European countries, including Germany, France, Italy, Great Britain, Ukraine and others, abstained from voting. Israel and the United States are not members of this organization. In addition, the world's leading human rights organizations called on Israel to stop using phosphorus charges, which cause severe burns, during combat operations.
Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak believes that now is a favorable moment to begin peace negotiations with the participation of international mediators. Diplomatic activity in the region has begun to increase in recent days. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon is expected to visit the region. On Monday, German Foreign Minister Frank Walter Steinmeier arrived in Israel from Egypt. According to him, Berlin is ready to help the Egyptian authorities strengthen the border with the Gaza Strip and solve the problem of arms smuggling. The problem of underground tunnels dug under the so-called “Philadelphia corridor” (a narrow strip of land separating the Gaza Strip and Egypt) is Israel’s main complaint against Egypt.
The Israeli army draws attention to the fact that, despite massive airstrikes on weapons depots in the Gaza Strip, Palestinian militants continue to fire Grad and Qassam missiles at southern Israel. These attacks, according to Israel, indicate that Islamists are secretly replenishing their arsenals with contraband coming from the Sinai Peninsula. The head of the German Foreign Ministry Frank Walter Steinmeier noted that the main condition for establishing a truce between Israel and the Hamas movement should be the resolution of this issue.
French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner yesterday made a proposal to send international observers to the region. The Israelis, however, do not believe that international observers will be able to solve the problem of arms smuggling. “Only the control of the Israeli security services over the Philadelphia corridor will be able to prevent the transfer of weapons to Islamists,” Moshe Marzuk, an employee of the Israeli Institute for Combating Terrorism, noted in an interview with Vremya Novostey. -- The Islamists themselves are to blame for the humanitarian crisis that foreign media love to talk about. Every day, Israel ceases hostilities for several hours and opens its checkpoints to deliver food and medicine to the Gaza Strip. Often Islamists use these few hours of calm to shell Israeli cities.”
The lack of a clear idea of what will happen in the Gaza Strip after the Israeli army leaves its territory is another reason why the country's leadership cannot decide on its future actions. “What to do with Gaza?” - this is the question all members of the cabinet of ministers are asking themselves today. A war to the bitter end, that is, the complete destruction of the Hamas movement and its leaders, as proposed by the Israeli right, is fraught with serious consequences. After all, Israel is not going to stay in the Gaza Strip. However, the destruction of the Islamic Resistance Movement (Hamas), which currently controls this Palestinian territory, will lead to a power vacuum and resulting chaos.
“It would be preferable for us if power in the Gaza Strip were transferred to the more moderate Fatah movement (Palestine Liberation Movement - Ed. ). However, if this happens immediately after the end of the operation, the Fatah people will look like Israeli proxies in the eyes of the residents of the sector. And Israel itself will have the image of a state that has launched a military operation in order to displace the existing regime in the sector,” notes Moshe Marzuk.
Whatever the balance of power in the Gaza Strip after the end of Operation Cast Lead, the Israeli leadership has almost no time left to carry it out. The Israelis perceived US President-elect Barack Obama's statement about his readiness to take an active part in the Middle East process as a warning signal. The inauguration ceremony for the new president is scheduled for January 20. According to some Israeli analysts, if the operation does not stop before this date, then strong pressure will be put on Tel Aviv from Washington. To the accompaniment of guns, Barack Obama's tone will be much harsher.
In addition, in parallel with the conduct of hostilities, Israeli politicians are preparing for parliamentary elections scheduled for February 10. Yesterday, the country's Central Election Commission removed two Arab parties from the elections (Arabs make up more than a million of Israel's population of seven million), accusing them of "supporting terrorism." Deputies from these parties are now members of the Israeli parliament. One of them, the famous politician Ahmad Tibi, has already promised to appeal the decision to exclude Arab parties from the elections in Israel's highest judicial bodies. Recently, a deputy called on voters not to vote for the ruling Kadima party in the country, comparing the vote cast in its favor to “a bullet fired into the chest of a Palestinian child.”
While the Israeli government hesitates over its next steps, the army continues to strike Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip. At the same time, civilians continue to die. According to the latest data, as a result of the fighting, more than 900 Palestinians have already been killed (half of them are civilians), and 4 thousand people have been injured. On the Israeli side, losses were much smaller - 13 people and about 130 wounded.