Anniversary of protests

Exactly six months have passed since the parliamentary elections were held, that is, from the moment when it suddenly seemed to us that the country had become completely different - adult, conscious, protesting. What do we have as a bottom line after the snow has melted and the stormy spring waters have flowed down the drain?
Firstly, the scale of the protests has decreased sharply. On the one hand, it is unlikely to drop to the level of the old “Strategy-31” actions, but on the other hand, leadership in the protest, apparently, in the fall will once again become the lot of a small number of passionate people who are ready to pay large fines and regularly serve time behind bars. Only instead of the old fighters Limonov and Alekseeva, a new generation will come to the fore - Navalny, Udaltsov, Yashin.
Secondly, public support for Putin has risen again, according to FOM sociologists. However, it does not reach the peak values ​​that were before the 2008 crisis. However, we can state the following: if Putin seriously “sank” in the wake of growing economic difficulties, then in the wave of growing mass protest in the capitals he began to gain weight again.
Thirdly, the Putin-Medvedev political reform, which is usually spoken of as the main achievement of the protests, is so far increasingly acquiring clear signs of a bluff. In any case, gubernatorial elections with serious filters established by legislators are not elections at all. Perhaps something similar will happen with the liberalization of political parties. Oppositionists will be registered, but then faced with such difficulties in raising money, accessing television and organizing rallies (the latter is already taking place) that the voter from Nizhny Tagil will remain in the opinion that Nemtsov and Ryzhkov have all the attributes of the devil, while Putin and Medvedev are characterized by angelic purity.
So what actually happened during these six months? Did we dream about freedom or did some changes in society really take place? To answer these questions, we must finally abandon the extremely widespread idea in intellectual circles that Russia is approximately the same as our immediate environment.
In the circles of those people who want not only stellate sturgeon with horseradish, but also a constitution, terrible melancholy reigned last fall. The cynicism of the imperious “Putin-Medvedev” castling was so undisguised that it began to openly attack the sense of self-respect. And since the people concentrated in these circles are, for the most part, successful and have long since earned a ton of money from sturgeon and horseradish, the desire for a constitution turned out to be especially strong.
The mood was completely different in those circles in which, in addition to stellate sturgeon, beer, football and other attributes of a pleasant pastime are considered the true value. These people don't care about the constitution. And the castling only amused them. No matter how large the number of those who go to rallies is, the number of those who sit with a can of beer in front of a television screen is incomparably greater.
Some “thinkers” in December abandoned the thesis that the protest would continue to move across the country for a long time at the pace gained immediately after the elections and would cover the majority of citizens. Alas, there is nothing further from reality than this thesis, since its authors judge Russia by their immediate environment, not understanding how different life and different motivations exist in different regions, social strata, professional groups, etc.
This is not just a matter of misunderstanding. The life of the capital's intellectuals during these six months became so much brighter and more interesting that they inevitably wanted to deceive themselves in their dreams of future changes. But life in Nizhny Tagil did not become any brighter as a result of the Moscow protests. The guys and girls from a distant factory understand that they will only have beer and stellate sturgeon when Putin redistributes the proceeds from the sale of energy resources to finance military orders. So why on earth should Nizhny Tagil join in the protest at the cost of its beer?
Now, if the “horseradish party” is left without horseradish, without beer and even without bread, not to mention stellate sturgeon, then their brain activity will go completely differently. It will quickly turn into protest activity.
All this ultimately depends on the scale of the economic crisis that is quickly sweeping Europe. To receive support in such non-market sectors as the military-industrial complex, army, police, education and even culture, one must have income from high oil prices. Without these incomes, Putin will not have a high rating.

Dmitry TRAVIN