Translated material
American pipelayer
Stephen Mann is “digging the ground” for the Trans-Caspian Sea
Russia's energetic actions to implement two pipeline gas projects designed to satisfy the growing needs of the markets of Central and Southern Europe - the Caspian and South Stream - do not confuse Western lobbyists of the competing Trans-Caspian project . A funny coincidence was typical evidence of this. On February 28, the same day when in the Kremlin, when signing an agreement on Hungary’s accession to the South Stream, Vladimir Putin, hinting at the Trans-Caspian Sea, ridiculed its designers (“If someone wants to dig into the ground and bury iron in the form of pipes, please , we don’t object”), in Ashgabat, President of Turkmenistan Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov received the US State Department’s Coordinator for European and Eurasian Energy Affairs, Stephen Mann, for the second time in recent weeks . And two days later, on the other side, in Baku, the American veteran of Caspian diplomacy was received by the President of Azerbaijan, Ilham Aliyev.In both capitals, the agenda of Mr. Mann's negotiations was practically the same - combining the interests of exporting and transit countries of Central Asian and Azerbaijani gas, its buyers, as well as creditors for the construction of the future Trans-Caspian gas pipeline . It should stretch from the Turkmen coast of the Caspian Sea along the bottom of the sea, through Azerbaijan to Turkey, where it is expected to connect with the Nabucco gas pipeline going to Southern and Central Europe. The political and economic meaning of both Trans-Caspian and Nabucco is to build a transit corridor bypassing Russia.
The stage of negotiations on the Trans-Caspian Sea in Baku has already advanced quite far. The leadership of Azerbaijan is playing openly and does not hide its direct interest in the project. On February 29, the winner of the tender for the preparation of a feasibility study for the Trans-Caspian gas pipeline was announced there. It was Kellog Brown & Root (KBR). As Day.az reports with reference to the press service of the State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR), KBR has created an alliance with Granherne.
Moreover, “trans-Caspian” negotiations between Baku and Astana are progressing successfully. SOCAR President Rovnag Abdullayev announced on Saturday plans to create a joint venture with the Kazakh Kazmunaigas in the near future. “We will jointly build terminals in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan, and we will also carry out these operations using Kazakh and Azerbaijani vessels,” Day.az agency quotes Mr. Abdullayev. “At the moment, experts from Kazakhstan are here and work is underway on this issue.”
But the main trans-Caspian “direction of attack” in the negotiations of American lobbyists points to Turkmenistan. Only filling it with Turkmen gas can make this project meaningful. Ashgabat plays its own game, which is not at all as transparent and unambiguous as Baku. Deputy Prime Minister of Azerbaijan Abid Sharifov, for example, in an interview with the Japanese newspaper Nihon Kezai on February 29, directly says: “The United States and many European countries support projects for obtaining alternative sources of natural gas bypassing Russia, and one of such projects is gas delivery via to the bottom of the Caspian Sea from Turkmenistan - supported by Azerbaijan.” At the same time, official reports about the meeting between Stephen Mann and the President of Turkmenistan only vaguely spoke of the latter’s desire “thanks to the energy projects being promoted today, to put the country’s rich resource potential at the service of the entire world community.” And the State Department coordinator in response emphasized “the enormous interest of leading American companies in establishing long-term partnerships in Turkmenistan.”
According to Vremya Novostey's information from informed diplomatic sources in the Caspian region close to the negotiations being conducted by Stephen Mann, his efforts in Ashgabat at the current stage are focused on drawing the Turkmen leadership into a specific dialogue on the construction of the Trans-Caspian. Washington’s problem is that Ashgabat still does not want to deviate from its principled position taken back in Niyazov’s times: selling gas on the Turkmen border without any additional obligations to end consumers. Moreover, Ashgabat does not even want to participate in the consortium for the construction of the pipeline in any capacity.
At this stage, proposals are being voiced to create a transnational consortium, established by authorized representatives of various states, and a construction operator as part of a group of Western companies. The approach of the Turkmen leadership to these ideas has so far been very cautious and will be formulated more specifically only after the creation of these structures. And not before this, they make it clear in Ashgabat, concrete negotiations on the Trans-Caspian Sea can begin, at least from the Turkmen side. Thus, the new leadership of Turkmenistan, not experienced in the big geopolitics of world powers that have clashed among themselves for control over energy resources, is trying to protect itself from the risks associated with the construction and operation of the future pipeline, pitting Ashgabat head-on with Moscow .
Therefore, during the current negotiations, as Vremya Novostei sources indicate, the Turkmen side is primarily seeking to obtain guarantees of stable gas purchases and payment for the supplied volumes. In addition, Ashgabat raises the question of Western guarantees for the construction and financing of large gas storage facilities and gas pipelines to the country’s borders on Turkmen territory. The lack of such infrastructure today is perhaps the main limiting factor in the diversification of Turkmen gas export routes. At the same time, the Turkmen authorities do not allow the possibility of privatization of mining and transport infrastructure within the country.
Both American and European partners, according to Vremya Novostei, are at the current stage quite satisfied with this position of Ashgabat. The main thing that the negotiators, in particular Stephen Mann, are trying to achieve today is to force their Turkmen counterparts to give obligations that will make the process of building the Trans-Caspian irreversible. Among other mandatory conditions for Western partners is to be allowed to conduct an audit of Turkmenistan’s gas reserves and its results, as well as to monitor the process of construction of transport and production infrastructure within Turkmenistan. Negotiators from Washington are aware that these latest demands are the most painful for the Turkmen leadership, which to the last resists everything that will allow them to “open up” the country. But they also understand well that in the end Ashgabat will be forced to do this if it wants to get a reliable buyer for its gas, willing to pay prices for it close to world prices (currently Gazprom pays $130 per thousand cubic meters for Turkmen gas and supplies it to Ukraine for $179.5).
The most piquant topic of the current round of Mr. Mann's shuttle diplomacy is the discussion of possibilities to circumvent the ban imposed by the European Parliament on trade relations between the European Union and Turkmenistan due to human rights violations in this country. Therefore, instead of concluding any “protocol of intent” between Ashgabat and Brussels on the construction of the Trans-Caspian, the option of step-by-step bilateral actions is being discussed. The beginning could be the conclusion of an agreement between Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan, then, for example, Kazakhstan will join it, then Turkey - and this chain will actually become an organized core on which everything that will formalize bilateral and multilateral agreements in the form of a transnational consortium is strung.
The Turkish links of this scheme are already being discussed. According to Vremya Novostey, Stephen Mann brought proposals to Ashgabat on specific options for gas pipeline routes across Turkey and the construction of gas storage facilities there. They must ensure, on the one hand, uninterrupted gas supplies to Europe, and on the other, continuous gas extraction not only from Turkmenistan, but also from Kazakhstan and, possibly, Uzbekistan.
During his current trip, Steven Mann will also visit Ankara, and then return to Ashgabat and Baku and most likely Astana.