Without mutual assistance

The European Central Bank refused to support the US Federal Reserve

The reluctance of the European Central Bank to lower interest rates and thereby support the US Federal Reserve's actions to stimulate the economy was the main reason why the stock market continued to fall yesterday. Disappointed investors began to sell shares , although in the morning they, on the contrary, had been buying securities, believing that the time had come for the market to recover after a serious drop at the beginning of the week. As a result, the Russian RTS index lost almost another 4%, falling to 1890.88 points, the MICEX index fell by 4.03%, to 1570.9 points. A temporary change in trend has emerged in the foreign exchange market: the dollar adjusted against the ruble, falling in price by 15 kopecks, to 24.66 rubles.

On Wednesday morning, market participants decided that it was time to reverse the bearish trend and start buying shares. In Asia, securities in the banking and transport sectors began an active upward movement. Hong Kong managed to recoup an eight percent decline on Tuesday. The Hang Seng Index added 10.72% at the end of yesterday's session to 24,090.17 points. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 2.06% to 12,829.06 points, and China's CSI 300 rose 4.65% to 4,975.11 points. European stock markets also opened higher in the major indices, trying to win back Tuesday's fall. However, later, against the background of the absence of significant supporting factors, the shares began to fall in price again. Investors were not pleased with the statement of the head of the European Central Bank, Jean-Claude Trichet: “The European Central Bank still views the fight against inflation as a priority and will not reduce the eurozone refinancing rate, despite the threat of recession and the fact that the Fed has sharply reduced the key and discount rates ", he said. In addition, the Bank of England also left its rate unchanged, despite the slowdown in UK economic growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

An additional negative role was played by statistics that the growth of the eurozone services sector in January slowed to its lowest level in 4.5 years, that is, stronger than analysts expected. As a result, the pan-European FTSEurofirst 300 index fell by 0.48%, the British FTSE 100 index lost 0.43%, the German DAX - 1.02%, the French CAC 40 - 0.35%.

“The speech of the head of the ECB was a turning point in yesterday’s trading in Russia,” notes Stanislav Savinov, an analyst at the Antanta-Pioglobal Investment Group. Before this, “against the background of the recovery of quotes on the commodity markets, the RTS index in the first hours rushed to conquer the 2000 points left at the beginning of the week, but it was not possible to strengthen above this level,” he said. Unfulfilled expectations that the ECB would follow the example of its American counterparts, coupled with falling prices for “black gold” and the publication of financial reports of American companies, forced the majority of trading participants to look down again. The leaders of the fall were shares of RAO UES, which collapsed by 5.02%. Shares of Norilsk Nickel fell in price by 3.81%, Surgutneftegaz - by 3.66%, LUKOIL - by 2.87%, Sberbank - by 1.08%. Gazprom shares looked better than the market and rose in price by 0.85%.

The US stock market began trading for the sixth day in a row with the main indices falling. This time, Apple Inc.'s weak forecast added fuel to the fire. The computer maker said its fiscal second-quarter profit would be below analysts' expectations. As a result, at the beginning of trading, the NASDAQ technology sector index lost 2.45%, to 2236.11 points, and the Dow Jones index fell 1.84%, to 11751.38 points.

"The Fed's bold 0.75% rate cut was intended to quell fears of a US economic recession," said NBC analyst John Schoen. “However, the long-term effect of this action may be limited.” In his opinion, the housing crisis is still far from its lowest point. And when he will achieve it is still unclear. However, market participants do not rule out that on January 30, at its meeting, the Fed will again lower the rate, which could have a more significant impact on the stock market.

Yesterday, the dollar fell for the first time in recent days against the euro and ruble. The weighted average rate fell by 15.25 kopecks. compared to the result of previous trading and amounted to 24,669 rubles. On the international market, the dollar fell from a high of 1.436 dollars per euro to 1.468. However, according to Alexei Trifonov, a financial analyst at Forex Club, the potential for a decline in the euro against the dollar in the coming weeks will remain, although stabilization of the main currency pair in the range of 1.44-1.46 dollars per euro is also possible.

Nikolay KOCHELYAGIN