Door to the future

Chavez is preparing for the next elections

A fiery critic of Washington and a supporter of rapprochement with Moscow, 54-year-old Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, who has been in power for ten years now, can now run for this post an unlimited number of times. This right was granted to him by his victory in the Sunday referendum, where, according to preliminary data, over 54% of voters voted for the corresponding amendment to the constitution. Observers from the UN, the Organization of American States and the South American common market Mercosur confirmed that the vote was "fair and free". Venezuelan opposition leaders said they would not challenge the results of the plebiscite. Of the 17 million voters in a country of 24 million, over 11 million took part in the referendum, that is, approximately 70%.

At a rally of his jubilant supporters, Chavez called the lifting of restrictions on the president's re-election "a great victory for truth and dignity." He promised to continue his course “towards building Bolivarian socialism”: “The doors to the future are wide open. There will be presidential elections in December 2012, and unless God decides otherwise, unless the people decide otherwise, your faithful soldier can already be considered a candidate. Long live the revolution!

“Goliath has won, but only now,” said Leopoldo Lopez, one of the leaders of the disparate opposition, which believes that the president’s victory was ensured by administrative resources. The results of the referendum may also be useful to Chavez’s political opponents, as they will lift restrictions on elections at all levels. In November 2008, the pro-presidential United Socialist Party of Venezuela lost to the opposition in regional elections in Caracas and several provinces.

After this, Chavez forced a change in the constitution, the previous version of which limited the powers of the president to two six-year terms. He was elected to a second term in December 2006 with an impressive 63% of the vote. But a year later, voters in a referendum rejected Chavez’s proposal for unlimited re-election.

Lieutenant Colonel Chavez entered politics in 1992 as the organizer of a failed putsch. Pardoned after two years in prison, he organized the leftist “Movement for the Fifth Republic” and legally took the presidency in 1999 under the slogans of “a just reconstruction of society” and “rejection of globalization imposed by the United States.” In 2000, Chavez won new presidential elections after parliament extended the term of office of the head of state from four to six years. In 2002, with the support of the army and the poor, he managed to repel an attempted military coup, and in 2004 he emerged victorious in a nationwide “confidence referendum.” The politician won the sympathy of the poor thanks to large-scale programs in the areas of health, education, food and housing. In 2005, the opposition boycotted the parliamentary elections, after which Chavez's supporters, who dominated the National Assembly, passed a law effectively introducing presidential rule in the country.

Yesterday Chavez promised to toughen the fight against two scourges of the country: crime and corruption. “His main headache is the global economic crisis, which can greatly damage his personal popularity. After all, Chavez lost the constitutional referendum in 2007, and that was the time of peak oil prices,” Vadim Teperman, director of the Center for Economic Research at the Institute of Latin America of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Vremya Novostey. He recalled that Venezuela is the world's fifth-largest exporter of oil and gas, so the fall in hydrocarbon prices affects its finances “in the most direct way.” In addition, the country has one of the highest inflation rates in all of Latin America - about 35% last year with a forecast of 40% this year.

According to VN’s interlocutor, Chavez “is trying to combat price increases through administrative measures and pressure on traders. But this gives the opposite result, especially since the country imports up to 80% of its food. Chavez's social policy options will inevitably decline. However, social programs, which currently account for up to 70% of budget expenditures, will be the last to be cut.” The expert noted that Chavez “will most likely abandon the ambitious project to build a transcontinental gas pipeline worth $20 billion.”

Alexander SAMOKHOTKIN