Nuclear kamikaze

Musharraf compared to Arafat

The prospect of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan has the whole world closely watching news from Kashmir. Nothing encouraging is happening there. Moreover, Pakistan's new ambassador to the UN, Munir Akram, "delighted" the international community yesterday with the announcement that Islamabad no longer considered itself bound by its previous promise not to be the first to use nuclear weapons. "India should not have a license to kill with conventional weapons while our hands are tied in other ways of self-defense," he explained. At the same time, Mr. Akram listed options for events that his country would interpret as aggression on the part of India. This list included not only a border crossing by ground forces or an air strike, but also vaguely defined attempts at “economic strangulation” of Pakistan.

Meanwhile, another Islamic militant attacked a police station yesterday and killed four police officers, after which they were shot dead. Pakistani and Indian militaries are firing mortars and artillery at each other with increasing fury. Over the past day, 28 people became victims of shelling, most of them civilians. The chief minister of the Indian state of Jammu and Kashmir, Farooq Abdullah, said harshly that “if cross-border terrorism and mortar attacks do not stop, nothing can prevent a major conflict between India and Pakistan.” So if there were a new major terrorist attack on Indian territory with large casualties, the fingers frantically clenched on the nuclear buttons may tremble.

It is precisely this development of events that the West fears most. US State Department spokesman Richard Boucher said that “irresponsible elements” could provoke hostilities even against the wishes of the leaders of India and Pakistan.

Western mediators who have frequented the region are urging Pakistani leader Musharraf to take at least some convincing steps to suppress the actions of Islamic terrorists fighting against Indian rule over Kashmir. British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw proposed that Islamabad place a mobile contingent of 300 international observers on the “line of control” in Kashmir, who would record from helicopters the facts of infiltration of militants from Pakistan into India. However, Delhi is opposed to excessive internationalization of the conflict; moreover, the Kashmiri Mujahideen are unlikely to openly expose themselves to observers. It would be a different matter if Musharraf could back up his correct words about condemning terrorism with actions. In this case, it would be much easier for the mediators to convince Delhi to reduce military tensions. However, the long-awaited practical measures remain elusive, and frustrated analysts are increasingly comparing Musharraf with Arafat - both of them cannot stop the terror unleashed by their subordinates without mortally risking their own political position.

Indian military analysts console themselves with the fact that in the event of a nuclear war, India will still survive, but Pakistan will simply be wiped off the face of the earth (about forty years ago, similar thoughts occurred to Mao Zedong, who believed in the triumph of socialism after the defeat of the West in a nuclear conflict) . Infamous writer Salman Rushdie, in an article in The New York Times, asked himself and his readers: “Is it really possible for Pakistan to strap a nuclear weapon to its stomach, walk into a crowded bazaar (that is India) and turn itself into the biggest suicide bomber in history? » Although, according to Rushdie, Musharraf is not made of the stuff that martyrs are made of, Pakistan's nuclear weapons may well fall into the hands of those who value martyrdom more than life. However, Indian experts scoff at such warnings and argue that Pakistan's arsenals are under strict control of the United States, which will never allow Islamabad to carry out nuclear jihad.

Pakistan loudly declares that the confrontation with India is forcing it to withdraw troops from the areas bordering Afghanistan, thereby weakening support for the US anti-terrorism operation against the underdogs from the Taliban and al-Qaeda. Indian Defense Minister George Fernandes countered the complaints by saying there were between 2,000 and 3,000 al-Qaeda members holed up in the Pakistani part of Kashmir, waiting for the snow to melt before infiltrating into India. In other words, the Pakistani army, if desired, will be able to continue the fight against international terrorists even near the borders of India. Pakistani intelligence services also admit that Islamic extremists driven out of Afghanistan have already scattered throughout the country and settled in major cities. They are credited with organizing the recent attacks on foreigners.

Meanwhile, The USA Today newspaper reports that the United States has already prepared a plan for the evacuation of 60 thousand Americans from India and Pakistan. Washington hastened to declare that there is such a plan, but no measures for its implementation have yet been provided. And in Moscow they are preparing for a further deterioration of the situation. As Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Losyukov said yesterday, the Russian side “keeps under control the issue of evacuating employees of institutions in India and Pakistan.” “The Russian ambassadors reported that evacuation measures have been prepared, but for now we do not intend to take extensive measures,” the diplomat explained.

Alexander LOMANOV