Translated material
Amber Stream
Poland wants to increase transit of Russian gas
Warsaw is going to offer Russia a gas pipeline route alternative to Nord Stream. In anticipation of the visit to Moscow of the new Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, scheduled for February 8, local experts, commissioned by the government, assessed the cost of an overland gas pipeline from Russia to Germany across the territories of Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia and Poland. According to the influential Polish newspaper Dziennik, such a gas pipeline, based on the calculation results, turned out to be approximately two times cheaper than the Nord Stream pipeline along the bottom of the Baltic Sea. Allegedly, Mr. Tusk has already secured the consent of the governments of other countries - potential transit countries. The Baltic states are ready to join the project and pay part of its cost, and also, as members of the European Union, eliminate the risk of problems with transit, unlike Ukraine and Belarus.It is expected that Mr. Tusk will come to the Russian capital with these tempting calculations. However, he has no chance of convincing the Russian side to abandon the sea route. At one time, it was Gazprom that rejected the construction of the Amber gas pipeline through the Baltic countries, as well as the construction of the second Yamal-Europe branch (through Belarus and Poland) in favor of a transit-free option along the bottom of the Baltic. Moreover, Gazprom regularly has contradictions regarding the operating conditions of the Polish section of the first branch of the Yamal-Europe pipeline, even leading to litigation and public conflicts.
Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski spoke about his intention to revive the conversation about the Amber project last week, just after a working trip to Moscow to prepare for Mr. Tusk’s visit. He, in particular, promised that the prime minister would go to Russia, “armed with solid information” on this project, and hinted that Amber seemed to the Polish side to be the cheapest and most profitable alternative to Nord Stream. Gazprom declined to comment.
Representative of the Nord Stream company (which will build and manage Nord Stream), Irina Vasilyeva, told Vremya Novostey that, based on many years of research, the gas export route to Western Europe along the bottom of the Baltic Sea was “recognized as optimal from the point of view of technical feasibility, environmental safety and cost-effectiveness " “Of course, economic feasibility also played an important role in choosing the route. So, in the future, after the development of the Shtokman field, Nord Stream will become the shortest route for transporting gas from the world’s richest field to Europe,” she added, noting that the EU provides unequivocal support for the project.
The previous government of Poland, which openly conflicted with Moscow, also tried to lobby the Amber project in Brussels and even, together with its Baltic colleagues, sent a letter to the European Commission asking for money to be allocated for pre-project studies (primarily cost assessment).
According to official documents from the Nord Stream company, laying two Nord Stream lines with a capacity of 55 billion cubic meters will cost “over 5 billion euros.” The company plans to release more accurate data after completing the project's environmental impact assessment (EIA), as well as tenders for pipe laying and logistics services for pipe preparation. But according to expert forecasts, the cost of the first line of Nord Stream will be at least 3 billion euros.
However, even a two-fold cost savings (which already seems unobvious due to the need to negotiate the purchase of land from private owners along almost the entire length of the onshore gas pipeline) is unlikely to force Vladimir Putin to abandon one of his favorite brainchildren. After all, the successful implementation of the Nord Stream project, in addition to providing additional export opportunities and increasing the reliability of supplies, may force all transit countries to pursue a more balanced and cautious policy towards Russia.