Translated material
Hariri won
Lebanese opposition triumphs
The Lebanese opposition, which achieved the withdrawal of Syrian troops from the country this spring, is celebrating its victory. And her political competitors have already admitted defeat in the parliamentary elections. The process of expression of will, which began on May 29, took place for the first time in the last three decades in the absence of the Syrian military in the country. The fourth and final phase of voting ended in northern Lebanon on Sunday.The Reform and Reconciliation bloc, led by 35-year-old Sunni Muslim Saad Hariri, won 72 seats in the 128-seat parliament. The winner's father, Rafik Hariri, a former prime minister, millionaire and opponent of the Syrian military presence, died on February 14 in Beirut as a result of a terrorist attack. This crime, of which the opposition accused Damascus and the pro-Syrian Lebanese authorities, provoked the so-called “Cedar Revolution”. Its slogans were the democratization of Lebanon and the establishment of “normal relations” with Syria. At the end of April, Damascus was forced to completely withdraw troops from Lebanon.
The election race was tight. In the first round on May 29 in Beirut, the Hariri bloc won. Then, in southern Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley, the Syrian-backed Shiite movements Hezbollah and Amal gained the upper hand. On June 12, victory in Mount Lebanon went to the 70-year-old Maronite Christian General Michel Aoun. The end was reached last weekend in Northern Lebanon, where Hariri received another 28 mandates.
The leader of the Broad United Front (BFU), Druze Walid Jumblatt, advised Hariri not to become prime minister as long as pro-Syrian President Emile Lahoud remains president. Chief researcher at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Georgy Mirsky, told Vremya Novostey that with Hariri’s victory, the Lebanese will experience big changes. The scientist told VN: “Those who now have a majority in parliament will never agree to coexist with Lahoud (his powers expire in November 2007 - Ed. ). The winners will try to break the anachronistic confessional system of distribution of power.” This system requires that the president of Lebanon be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite Muslim.
Michel Aoun, ex-prime minister and ex-commander-in-chief, leader of the Reform and Transformation electoral bloc, accusing his opponents of bribing votes, nevertheless promised that his supporters in parliament would become a civilized opposition. Aun is a controversial figure. At the final stage of the civil war in 1990, he opposed the Syrians and was defeated by them, after which he spent 14 years in exile. But he has many enemies both in the current anti-Syrian bloc and in the pro-Syrian one. The general advocates the disarmament of the Shiite organization Hezbollah. But such an attempt would end in new blood, since this movement is very well organized.
The president of the Russian-Arab Dialogue scientific center, Professor Anatoly Yegorin, believes that “the victorious opposition should not show off.” “The bloody civil war of 1975-1990 is fresh in everyone’s memory. No one won it,” the scientist reminded VN. “I think the status quo will be respected in terms of assigning key positions to leading religious groups. The opposition, of course, will be in euphoria for two or three weeks, but this will pass. After all, there is no escape from the neighborhood with Syria, which maintains serious political and economic positions in Lebanon. And bringing the confrontation to the extreme is not beneficial to anyone. elections will be the formation of a coalition government."
Professor Mirsky shares a similar opinion. “I don’t believe that there will be a new civil war in Lebanon. The aggressive energy in this country seems to have fizzled out,” the scientist noted. “The Lebanese are a pragmatic people. If Hariri sees that without Aoun it will be difficult for him to achieve his goal, he will make a deal with him. After all, there are no serious ideological contradictions between the rivals.” However, it will be most difficult for Hariri to come to an agreement with the radicals from the Hezbollah movement, which, together with Amal, owns 35 parliamentary seats.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said that these elections were held “in a fair democratic atmosphere” and thus “an important step was taken towards strengthening independence, sovereignty and democratic institutions in Lebanon.” Particularly noted was Syria's implementation of its obligations under UN Security Council Resolution 1559, adopted last fall and requiring Damascus to curtail its military presence in Lebanon.