Translated material
Nuclear PR
Neither Russia nor the West knows how to stop Iran
The statement by Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad that the country has begun enriching uranium, has entered the “club of nuclear powers” and is going to enrich uranium on an industrial scale in the future, seriously alarmed the other members of this club. The new demarche of Tehran, which categorically rejected demands to stop any work with uranium, is forcing the world community to think about retaliatory steps.Traditionally, the most restrained position was taken by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov. He said that he “would not rush to draw conclusions” about the news from Tehran, since passions are “too often inflamed” around its nuclear program. The minister expressed the conviction that “there is no forceful solution to the problem, and all countries agree with Russia on this.” “Iran knows our position, and I think it will take the right steps,” the head of Russian diplomacy emphasized.
At the same time, Moscow no longer hides its dissatisfaction with the actions of the Iranian authorities. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin yesterday called Tehran's actions "a step in the wrong direction" that contradicts "IAEA decisions and the statement of the Chairman of the UN Security Council." He expressed hope that Iran will “correctly perceive the concerns of the world community and take steps to implement IAEA documents in practice.” These decisions include a call for the suspension of all uranium enrichment activities, “including research.”
Yesterday, the EU High Representative for Common Foreign and Security Policy, Spaniard Javier Solana, assessed the situation in almost the same words yesterday. He called Iran's announcement of its ability to enrich uranium "a bad step in the wrong direction." The British Foreign Office restrainedly stated that Tehran “is not contributing to the solution of its nuclear problem.”
The US administration acted most harshly. "I believe that the Security Council will need to take note of this move by Iran and that it will be time for decisive steps to maintain confidence in the international community," said US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. The White House indicated that Tehran's refusal to comply with the decisions of the UN Security Council leads to the international isolation of Iran and its people. “We had hoped that the Iranian regime would pursue diplomacy rather than defiant behavior,” said US State Department spokesman Sean McCormack. “But he again chose the path of open disobedience instead of following the path of cooperation.”
The Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Muhammad ElBaradei, who is concluding a two-day visit to Iran today, has a dual mandate - from the IAEA and from the UN Security Council. On March 29, the Chairman of the Security Council gave Iran 30 days to return to the moratorium on all types of uranium enrichment work. If Tehran does not comply, sanctions could be imposed against it.
Russia and China have so far opposed such a move. Yesterday, China's permanent representative to the UN, Wang Guangya, again said that "attempts to solve the problem by military and economic methods will not give the desired results." At the end of April, ElBaradei is due to brief the UN Security Council on the results of his work. After this, Moscow and Beijing will inevitably face increased pressure from the West, primarily the United States, which considers it necessary to seriously punish Iran.
The Security Council still has time to develop an answer. The Iranians said they have a block of 164 centrifuges for uranium enrichment on an “industrial scale.” The uranium enriched by them supposedly contains 3.5% of the uranium-235 isotope and is suitable as fuel for nuclear power plants. But to fill nuclear warheads with highly enriched uranium, cascades of tens of thousands of centrifuges are required. Although the United States is confident that the Iranian underground plant in Natanz already has such an armada of centrifuges, nuclear experts claim that it will take more than one year to launch them. The Israeli General Staff says that the Iranians need at least three years to create a bomb.
Many diplomats and experts on Iran believe that President Ahmadinejad's statement can also be interpreted as preparing positions for returning to dialogue with the West. They say that Iran has already joined the “nuclear club,” because the president solemnly announced this. Consequently, Tehran can now make concessions without fear of “losing face” in front of a nationalist audience within the country.
The head of the Iran sector of the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Nina Mamedova, in an interview with Vremya Novostey, called Ahmadinejad’s speech a PR campaign. According to the expert, “the Iranians have now got what they wanted, they have confirmed their right to a peaceful atom - perhaps this will all end.” Since the launch of 164 centrifuges to supply uranium to the nuclear power plant being built in Bushehr with Russia’s participation “does not solve anything,” then “Iran’s return to Russia’s proposal to create a fuel joint venture on its territory is very likely.” Yesterday, the Iranian Embassy in Moscow confirmed that Tehran is not refusing this proposal.
Iran has not gone beyond the limits permitted by the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, and “the degree of uranium enrichment in Iran does not yet give reason to doubt the peaceful nature of its nuclear program,” Nina Mamedova emphasized. She expressed regret that Tehran is using the month given to it by the Security Council to increase work with uranium, and not to convince the world community of its peaceful goals. “If there is a threat of forceful pressure, then wise leadership should in every possible way avoid the possibility of its implementation,” concluded Nina Mamedova.