| The main mouthpiece of Kandahar fled abroad Rumors of a split in the Taliban movement, which have been circulating throughout the week, have gained momentum. As the Vremya Novostei newspaper learned from several independent sources, Taliban Foreign Minister Mullah Wakil Mutawakil left Afghanistan, is in the United Arab Emirates (presumably in Dubai) and does not intend to return. This was indirectly confirmed by yesterday's The New York Times, which reported that Mutawakil was on a secret visit to Pakistan, where he negotiated the extradition of Osama Bin Laden. Since there is currently no other way out of Afghanistan except through Pakistan, it is quite possible that he came to the UAE from there.
Mutawakil is the only representative of the Taliban leadership who is well known in the world, a kind of “face” and “mouthpiece” of the Taliban. The head of the Foreign Ministry is considered moderate; it is him and others like him that the Americans consider the “sane” wing of the Taliban, with which they could cooperate after the elimination of the supreme leader Mullah Omar and Bin Laden. The entry of the “moderate” Taliban into the future government of Afghanistan was discussed yesterday by US Secretary of State Colin Powell and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf (see the material “The path to Kabul lies through Kashmir”) and allegedly agreed that this is necessary. If Mutawakil makes the “right choice,” he could claim one of the first roles in the future leadership.
Mutawakil's escape could be a major victory for the United States. After all, the campaign has entered its most delicate stage. All major targets that can be hit from the air appear to have been hit. The next stage should be a ground offensive - either by the Americans or their allied Northern Alliance. It is dangerous to attack on your own - there may be large casualties, but you don’t want to let the Alliance go ahead. The Americans doubt the fighting efficiency of the Mujahideen, and their rise to power will not lead to the end of the civil war.
The lack of combat operations on the ground fronts is more than compensated for by the propaganda attack. Day after day, the world media reports two “sensations” - the military leader of the Northern Alliance, General Dostum, took the northern capital of Mazar-i-Sharif, and American special forces have already landed in Afghanistan.
Dostum's units do not fight on the outskirts of Mazar-i-Sharif and are not even in the immediate vicinity of the city. Abdul Rashid Dostum himself told the Vremya Novostei newspaper about this yesterday by telephone. The general is, according to him, in the area of the city of Daray-Sufa in the province of Samangan, at least 70 km from Mazar-i-Sharif. It is not difficult to guess why “high-ranking diplomats” at the Afghan embassy in Dushanbe are reporting that Dostum is about to take the city. Diplomats are engaged in PR, proving that “the fighting spirit of the Taliban has been completely broken.” At the same time, wittingly or unwittingly, they discredit their own leader. A few more of these unfounded promises and no one will trust the Afghan northerners at all. They also need to convince the United States that they are able to carry out a ground operation.
The interests of the United States and the Northern Alliance today coincide in one thing: to overthrow the regime of Mullah Omar. Then the goals diverge. The Americans are aware that giving power to the northerners in Kabul means provoking a new confrontation. So they are trying to split the Taliban and attract moderates. And the maximum that the Northern Alliance will be allowed to do is return control over the northern provinces.
It is not only the Mujahideen who are waging a propaganda war. Reports circulated yesterday about the landing of American paratroopers in Kandahar have not yet been confirmed by independent sources. This does not mean that there will be no landing at all. However, the United States is waiting for more favorable conditions - both military and political. As one of the Arabs, who fought with Bin Laden against the Soviet invasion but left Afghanistan after the overthrow of Najibullah, told the Vremya Novostey newspaper, so far Muslims in other countries have no reason to actively support Osama and the Taliban. Real jihad, he said, can only be declared in the event of foreign occupation, like 20 years ago. Then Islamic theologians in many countries issued religious decrees calling for a fight against the invaders. Today there is no foreign invasion of Afghanistan yet, which means there is no reason to go to fight. If the Americans land, the situation will change.
Washington certainly understands this. So the option with the fugitive Mutawakil and the coalition government suits him much more than military action on land. It is worth remembering, by the way, that in all the campaigns of the last decade in which the American military participated (Iraq, Haiti, Kosovo), they managed to achieve results, avoiding ground intervention at the last moment. Arkady DUBNOV, Elena SUPONINA, Fyodor LUKYANOV |
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