Translated material
Moderate optimists
The government has identified economic development scenarios for the next three years
On Monday, the almost full cabinet of ministers spent the day at the White House - first, at the government presidium they discussed the trade law and the forecast for socio-economic development for 2010-2012, and then at a meeting on economic issues they considered the draft budget for next year. The main result can be called the approval of a moderately optimistic forecast for the country's development for the next three years: the government did not rely on rising oil prices , but at the same time it will not take unnecessarily tough measures to contain the budget deficit, so as not to deprive the economy of incentives for growth.When announcing the agenda of the presidium meeting, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin once again drew attention to the trade law. The head of the cabinet recalled that three weeks ago he gave instructions to complete the development of a bill on trade regulation as soon as possible: “Of course, this law alone will not solve the problem of pricing that is justified from an economic point of view and fair from a social point of view. But the adoption of this law is a move in the right, necessary direction. Our goal is to build balanced, civilized relations along the entire chain from production to the counter and, first of all, to restore order in such a sensitive area as food trade.”
According to Mr. Putin, order will come when it is possible to eradicate the practice of discrimination against producers, and payment for delivered products will be received on time. The prime minister also spoke disapprovingly of the system of bonuses - “extortions,” as he defined them, “without payment of which even high-quality and in-demand goods today have no chance of appearing on the shelves of large retail chains.”
But the prime minister did not promise an easy life for producers either. They “will have to learn to meet the most stringent product quality requirements, increase the efficiency of their production, and reduce costs.” With regard to antimonopoly regulation and determining the market share, above which a company is considered a monopolist, Vladimir Putin took an intermediate position, not too harsh in relation to traders (it was proposed to establish very strict maximum market shares), but left the right of control to the state: “ If we do not include the relevant rules of antimonopoly regulation in this law, I agree that we should take this into account in another law, on competition, but this must be done anyway.”
Immediately after the closed part of the presidium, First Deputy Prime Minister and chief lobbyist for the trade law Viktor Zubkov said that “literally today or tomorrow it (the bill - Ed. ) will be adjusted and sent to the State Duma within two days.” The First Deputy Prime Minister noted that the proposed bill does not contain a rule regulating the establishment of markups by trade enterprises.
According to the head of the Federal Antimonopoly Service, Igor Artemyev, the fine for violating the trade law will range from 500 thousand to 1 million rubles. At the same time, the FAS will have the right to issue orders to violators to stop unfair practices within three months if such practices seem discriminatory to the service. Moreover, the head of the service promised, even if it is not directly stated in the law.
At the briefing after the government presidium, it was mainly about the forecast of socio-economic development for 2010-2012, which was presented by the Ministry of Economic Development. The head of the department, Elvira Nabiullina, said that the government approved all three development scenarios for the next three years, choosing as the main moderately optimistic one - economic recovery due to the continuation of investment programs of natural monopolies and government support for domestic demand. In this case, GDP growth will be 1% in 2010, 2.6% in 2011 and 3.8% in 2012. Yesterday, the Presidium approved a reduction in the investment program of the country's main natural monopoly, Gazprom. In 2010, instead of 920 billion rubles. only 775 billion will be spent on the development of the company. Moreover, a considerable burden for the implementation of the already reduced program will fall on consumers: as the prime minister said, production in the first half of the year fell by more than 20%, and one of the compensating measures will be an increase in gas tariffs for industrial consumers in the future year by 15% (the corresponding decision was approved yesterday at a meeting of the presidium). Ms. Nabiullina reported that an increase in tariffs in the electric power industry was also approved - by 5% for regulated tariffs (on a free market, as experts expect, the price will increase much more) and an indexation of tariffs for freight rail transportation in 2010 by 9.4% (prior to this, proposals not to increase them were considered).
However, the government still does not give up hope for help from higher powers: the Ministry of Economic Development proposed an additional oil scenario, designated in a press release as “a revival in the economy, driven by rising oil prices and a more intense recovery in the global economy.” The third, conservative scenario assumes the most stringent measures to reduce the budget deficit - to 5.5% next year, which, according to government economists, will somewhat slow down the economic recovery (GDP growth of 1.1% in 2010, 1.5 % - in 2011, 3.2% - in 2012). Therefore, the Cabinet of Ministers is set on a budget deficit of 6.5% of GDP in 2010, 4% in 2011, 3% in 2012. This is considered a moderately optimistic scenario.
At a meeting on economic issues, the prime minister once again tried to justify the government's optimism, albeit moderate. “There is every reason to expect that during 2010 the engine of our economy will begin to gradually gain momentum,” Mr. Putin said. “Of course, it would be reckless to name an exact time frame for overcoming the crisis, but today we are already observing, although very timid, positive trends in certain sectors and are feeling the impact of the implementation of anti-crisis measures.”
The Prime Minister once again recalled that the crisis should provide an incentive to increase labor productivity, reduce the energy intensity of production, expand the output of innovative products - “and thereby (Russia must. - Ed. ) use the chance to emerge from the crisis with a renewed economy" . The head of government drew the attention of the responsible departments, primarily the Ministry of Economic Development and the Ministry of Finance, that the development forecast “is based precisely on these premises, and the future budget must contain tools for solving the assigned tasks.”