| Sociologists have decided only on the leader and outsiders of the Moscow elections Research by sociologists conducted on the eve of the Moscow City Duma elections can only reassure United Russia, which is leading by a large margin. According to polls, Rodina could confidently overcome the ten percent barrier and take second place after the party in power, but the question of its participation in the election campaign is now within the competence of the Supreme Court of Russia. The entry into the capital's parliament of Yabloko, the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and the Liberal Democratic Party, whose rating is balancing on the verge of 10%, today largely depends on the activity of voters. The remaining parties, according to analysts, have no chance at all of getting their representatives into the Moscow Legislative Assembly.
As Dmitry Polikanov, director for international and public relations of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion, explained to a Vremya Novostey correspondent, there is no doubt only that the elections will take place. According to the results of a survey conducted by VTsIOM, the projected turnout for the elections will be about 40-45% of the list of voters. As before, the party in power can boast of the most disciplined electorate: according to the survey, 40-45% of those Muscovites who still make it to the polling stations on Sunday are ready to cast their votes for United Russia.
However, if everything is more or less clear with United Russia, then the prospects for the other major parties for VTsIOM sociologists remain vague. According to polls by this sociological center, second place is shared by Rodina, the Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, for which 10% of active voters are ready to vote. However, today Mr. Polikanov was careful not to guarantee the presence of deputies from these parties in the capital’s parliament, citing a statistical error. In addition, according to him, whether these parties pass the ten percent threshold will largely depend on how they use the last week before the vote. As for the United Democrats, VTsIOM analysts do not see them at all in the future Duma, predicting Yabloko 7% of the vote.
Levada Center analysts also offered their vision of the electoral situation on the eve of the Moscow City Duma elections. In a survey conducted in the midst of the election campaign, sociologists tried to simulate voting by asking a thousand Muscovites to fill out an analogue of a ballot. Commenting on the results of the Vremya Novostei poll, Levada Center representative Oleg Savelyev said that with a turnout predicted at 40%, United Russia will gain 43% of the votes. Rodina confidently holds second place with 15%. Levada Center specialists also have no doubt that the united democrats will overcome the ten percent threshold: Yabloko is in third place with 14% of the vote. Questions arise only regarding the LDPR and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, which received 10% each during the survey.
As for such outsiders of the electoral race as the Party of Life, the Party of Social Justice, “People’s Will”, “Free Russia” and the “Greens”, sociologists from VTsIOM and the Levada Center agree that they can count on passing the ten percent threshold they don't have to.
However, as Mr. Savelyev explained, the upcoming elections may bring many surprises. According to him, about 22% of Muscovites who will go to the polls have not yet fully decided on their political preferences. When making a forecast, the votes of undecided voters are distributed proportionally among parties, but a strong campaign by one party or the withdrawal of another can seriously change the balance of power. For example, if “Rodina” is nevertheless removed from the elections by a court decision, then, according to Mr. Savelyev, the Communists and Liberal Democrats will receive additional votes, ensuring that they are guaranteed to overcome the entry barrier.
Ratings of parties according to VTsIOM with a turnout of 40-45% of the list of voters| "United Russia" | 40--45% | | "Motherland" | 10% | | LDPR | 10% | | Communist Party of the Russian Federation | 10% | | "Apple" | 7% | | PCa | 7% | | "Greens" | 3% | | Social Justice Party | 3% | | "People's Will" | 2% | | "Free Russia" | 2% |
All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion. The survey was conducted on an initiative basis at the expense of VTsIOM on October 8-9 and 29-30, November 12-13, 2005. 1000 people were interviewed using a door-to-door survey using a sample representative of the Moscow population over 18 years of age. The statistical error does not exceed 3.1%.
Ratings of parties according to the Levada Center with a turnout of 40% of the list of voters| "United Russia" | 43% | | "Motherland" | 15% | | "Apple" | 14% | | LDPR | 10% | | Communist Party of the Russian Federation | 10% | | PCa | 4% | | "Free Russia" | 2% | | "Greens" | 1% | | Social Justice Party | 1% | | "People's Will" | less than 1% |
Levada Center. A representative blitz survey of 1000 Muscovites during the period from November 19 to November 25, 2005. The survey was conducted on an initiative basis using our own funds. The statistical error does not exceed 4.5%. Alexander GUDKOV
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