Brown on horseback

UK elections could take place in October

Gordon Brown still does not agree to be a “lame” prime minister, who received the residence on Downing Street not as a result of the elections, but at the behest of the resigned Tony Blair. The head of the British government gave a secret order to his comrades in the ruling Labor Party to begin raising funds to prepare for early parliamentary elections. The Times newspaper, citing informed sources in the Labor camp, reported that the vote could take place as early as October. Labor Party vice-chairman Martin Salter confirmed that “the party has been notified of early elections, which could take place as early as the autumn of this year.”

The last elections in Great Britain were held in May 2005, and they were also early. Tony Blair, seeing the declining popularity of his party and discord in the Conservative camp, called them together to avoid defeat in the next election. Thus, in 2005, Labor received a new five-year mandate from the British. But in June of this year, Blair resigned as party leader, leaving the post of prime minister. Nevertheless, Labor remained in power, and in order to become prime minister, Brown only needed to secure the party's support.

Experts argued whether the new prime minister would dare to announce early elections (and win a new five-year mandate) or whether he would “rework” the current term. Apparently, Brown was inspired by the super-successful start to his reign. In the weeks before Blair left, Labor was trailing the Conservatives in the polls. According to a poll taken two weeks ago, Labor was literally ahead of its rivals. Their rating reached 40% with 33% support among the Conservatives and 19% among the Liberal Democrats. Labor has not had such an advantage since September 2005, when Blair rallied the British after the terrorist attacks in London.

According to The Times, Labor hopes that rumors of early elections will complicate the situation of Conservative leader David Cameron, who is under constant attack from his own associates. In addition, the prospect of an election in October should help Labor quickly raise funds and strengthen discipline within its ranks. According to the newspaper, the Labor Party has already begun private negotiations with its main donors and bankers. According to party functionaries, Gordon Brown will rely on donations from small private donors and rank-and-file trade union members; he will not rely on a few wealthy entrepreneurs or trade union leaders.

Although the Labor Party is already saddled with a £25m debt, the newspaper believes money will not be its main problem. The main difficulties may arise in recruiting experienced staff with political experience. Last year, Labor had to reduce its workforce from 291 to 158 due to financial problems. Now, because of the elections, their number is to be doubled. In addition, Labor will have to replace the standard system of nominating candidates for parliament with an accelerated procedure, simplify the scheme for developing and all-party approval of a policy, and develop a new procedure for approving the party's election manifesto. This entire huge amount of work must be completed by October.

Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, head of the Center for British Studies, Alexei Gromyko, believes that The Times is somewhat rushing the prime minister. Previously it was planned to hold general elections in 2008 or 2009, only recently in the UK they began to cautiously hint about the possibility of holding early elections this fall. “It is likely that Brown will ultimately choose the option of holding elections in the spring of 2008. He has very little time to review and approve new general election rules by October. Gordon Brown is known as a very cautious person, and hasty early elections could do more harm to Labor than help the party strengthen its position,” Mr. Gromyko said.

Victor VOLODIN