Housing is not affordable for young people - the result of the target program

The problem of increasing the birth rate is not just a demographic issue. The decline in the working-age population directly affects the economic situation in Tambov and the region as a whole. But in order to increase the birth rate, appropriate conditions are necessary for this, at least a young family must have a roof over their head and a decent income. Support for young families is, first of all, support for the most active part of the population; it is a direct investment in the development of the state.

Over the past decades, we have been hearing promises from the authorities to solve this problem. Back in 1999, while serving as Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin stated that: “the lack of housing for citizens causes “justified discontent in society,” while mortgages are precisely designed to make housing affordable for a significant part of Russians with average incomes.” He repeated these words more than once, and in 2004 he even stated that by 2010 conditions would be created so that a third of the country's citizens could purchase an apartment.

Head of the Administration of the Tambov Region O.I. Betin, in unison with Putin, said in 2005: “today the housing market is saturated, but not everyone can afford housing yet, so we need to develop a mortgage that will make buying apartments more affordable.” Enough time has passed, but mortgages have not become the panacea that could solve the problem of housing affordability in 13 years. Let's try to figure out why this happened.

Reducing costs by 10 times will not solve the problem of housing affordability

The “Affordable Housing for Youth” program has been operating for several years now. The program has undergone changes over time, but its main task remains unchanged - helping young families get their own housing. In essence, the idea is good and correct, the question is how to implement it. Over the 7 years of the program’s existence (2003-2010), the queue of program participants grew from 97 to 2046 families, but only a few actually received payments.

In 2007 - 2010, as part of the implementation of the city target program “Youth - Affordable Housing”, only 264 young families improved their living conditions. At the same time, we must understand that this is not a purchase of housing by the state. A young family receives only part of the funds, most often to make a down payment. Under current conditions, almost all credit organizations have established a minimum down payment of at least 20-30% of the cost of housing. That is, to buy a one-room apartment with a mortgage, you need to put down an average of 300 thousand rubles, for most families even this amount is significant, and you can’t do it without government support. In fact, even this support, with the right approach, although not radically, can reduce the severity of the problem. The main question is how much money is spent on the implementation of this project.

On March 29, 2011, by resolution of the Tambov city administration, the city target program “Youth - Affordable Housing” for 2011 - 2015 was approved.” The resolution established the volumes and sources of funding for the program, a total of 2 billion 612 million rubles for 5 years. Including funds from the budget of the city of Tambov - 157.34 million, funds from the federal budget - 392.41 million, funds from the budget of the Tambov region - 418.54 million, from the own and borrowed funds of young families - 1645.97 million rubles . According to the plan, during the period of the program, 2046 young families must improve their living conditions, for example in 2012 - 427 families.

But in December 2011, plans changed. If expenses for 2012 were initially planned at 510 million rubles, now they have been reduced 10 times to 55 million. That is, not 400 families, but 40 will improve their living conditions. There was a similar sharp reduction in 2013 and 2014 d. And the remaining of the planned funds were transferred to 2015. But in our conditions, in my opinion, this means a waiver of obligations and the actual curtailment of the program. I attribute this to two factors:

Firstly , the total expenditure portion of the program does not increase. But in these years until 2015, housing prices will rise significantly. For comparison, the price per 1 sq. m on the secondary housing market in 2005, the average in Russia was 22 thousand rubles, and already in 2010 it was 60 thousand rubles, that is, an increase of 3 times in 5 years.

Secondly , not everything is so simple with the budget. As you know, budget expenditures of the city of Tambov decreased by 1.5 billion rubles compared to last year, and the situation is similar with the regional budget. City treasury expenses for 2013 are projected to be 3 billion 102 million rubles, which is 7.1% lower than the 2012 forecast. And such negative dynamics will intensify due to the worsening economic situation. That is, I want to say that there is no 100% guarantee that in 2015 there will be significant funds for the implementation of this program, given the deficit of both the regional and local budgets.

It turns out that in the best case, taking into account inflation, not 2 thousand families will receive housing under the program, but 600-700; in the worst case, even fewer, since there simply won’t be enough money in the budget for this. Young families need an apartment now in 2012, not in three years.

Mortgage slavery

Let’s say a young family managed to receive a certain amount of funds from the program to make a down payment. I was taking out a mortgage loan to buy a two-room apartment for 1 million 500 thousand rubles. On average, mortgage rates range from 9% to 15% per annum. We took out a loan at 12% per annum for 30 years. The family must pay 12,343 rubles monthly. (this is without commissions and insurance contributions), before that we had already made an initial payment of 300 thousand rubles. (20% of the cost of housing). Therefore, the total income must be at least 40 thousand rubles. At the same time, cash income per resident of the region in 2011 averaged 14 thousand rubles. Now let’s calculate how much we will pay for a two-room apartment, taking into account the established interest and term. It turns out a tidy sum of 4 million 443 thousand rubles. We will overpay in interest alone by 3 million 243 thousand. For this money we can buy two more apartments.

Here is your panacea in the fight against the housing problem. It turns out that the family will work half their life, denying themselves everything, in order to pay off the mortgage loan. What if something happens? For example, if they fire you or one of the spouses becomes seriously ill, what should you do then, give up your housing? At the same time, you still remain in debt.

The policy of the current government in solving the problem of housing affordability for ordinary citizens not only failed, it was initially incorrect. You cannot lure your own citizens into debt security for the sake of enriching a narrow circle of people who represent the financial elite.

Families with low incomes should receive social housing free of charge at the expense of the state. The rest must be purchased on credit at a rate of no more than 5% per annum. And so, in the current conditions, this is a real robbery.