Translated material
Far from the Motherland
Will the Kaliningrad region suffer from worsening relations between Russia and the West?
At the beginning of September, members of the defense committees of both chambers of the Russian parliament - the Federation Council and the State Duma - will arrive in Kaliningrad . Senators and deputies intend to discuss what to do in the Kaliningrad region in the current difficult geopolitical conditions. If for residents of, say, Bryansk or Tomsk, the deterioration of Russia’s relations with NATO and most EU countries is an abstract political matter, then for Kaliningrad residents it is a completely tangible reality.The westernmost region of the Russian Federation does not have land borders with Russia; it is surrounded by Lithuania and Poland - NATO countries. It is through Lithuanian territory that the railway line runs, connecting Kaliningrad with the “mainland” - Moscow and St. Petersburg. While the transit of Kaliningrad residents is carried out without problems, the Lithuanian authorities do not create obstacles. However, there is no guarantee that this situation will continue for long. After all, in the Lithuanian Sejm there are those who are not averse to “punishing” Russia for Georgia through Kaliningrad, by banning, for example, the transit of Russian military cargo. Deputy Chairman of the Sejm Foreign Affairs Committee Andrius Azubalis recently made a corresponding proposal. In his opinion, Russia should be considered an aggressor, Lithuania should not put up with this, and if so, it should block Russian military transit through Lithuanian territory. The idea of tightening the visa regime was also voiced. And deputy Laima Andrikienė spoke in favor of placing NATO bases on the territory of Lithuania (apparently, in addition to part of the American missile defense system, which should appear in Poland - three hundred kilometers from Kaliningrad).
Kaliningrad Governor Georgy Boos believes that the placement of such close military facilities is “an escalation of tension and the emergence of new militaristic centers that will create problems in Europe.” “Russia is part of Europe, and the Kaliningrad region is an outpost of Russia in Europe. Therefore, this will affect us, but it will also affect every European country,” Mr. Boos emphasized. At the same time, he believes that the emergence of new military facilities will not lead to the isolation of the Kaliningrad region.
However, questions may arise related to the implementation of investment projects conceived by the regional leadership. Such projects include, for example, the construction of a tourist and recreational zone on the territory of the Curonian Spit National Park, the development of a gambling zone on the shores of the Baltic Sea, and the creation of one of the largest yacht marinas in the Baltic in the port of Pionersky (a government residence is also being built there). But the idea of placing a nuclear power plant with a capacity of 2.4 million kilowatts in the region (the head of Rosatom, Sergei Kiriyenko, recently signed an order to begin construction, which is planned to be completed by 2015) looks very opportune. A nuclear power plant can not only guarantee to provide the region with heat and electricity, and in excess quantities, but will also act as a kind of guarantor of security, warning against excessive “hawkishness” in the Kaliningrad direction.
Chairman of the Regional Duma Committee on International Affairs Boris Batalin believes that the implementation of a number of important initiatives with the participation of the Kaliningrad region may be frozen for some time. In particular, we are talking about the liberalization of the visa regime for residents of the border areas of the westernmost region of the Russian Federation and its neighboring countries (Lithuania and Poland), negotiations are almost reaching the finish line. “Now, I do not rule out that the negotiations may stall or proceed extremely sluggishly. I still hope that common sense will prevail. I think that the cooling of relations will not particularly affect our border level - the so-called “public diplomacy” will operate,” Mr. Batalin believes.
But Nikolai Tulaev, a member of the Federation Council from the Kaliningrad Regional Duma, believes that neither side should be altruistic. “More recently, we actively discussed with our European partners exactly how to resolve the Kaliningrad visa issue. But now, after the South Ossetian events, it is obvious that the negotiation process will be long and difficult. All over the field the game can be played against us. And Kaliningrad, I do not rule out, will become one of the elements of pressure,” the senator believes.
If, as a result of such pressure, Lithuania nevertheless decides to limit Russian military transit, this will be at least an irresponsible step - this opinion was expressed by the head of the European Security Department of the Institute of Europe of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Dmitry Danilov, in a conversation with a Vremya Novostei correspondent. “Is the Lithuanian government capable of taking such measures? I don't know, it seems to me that probably not. Unless this is, so to speak, a decision that was made on the basis of behind-the-scenes informal consultations with its main NATO partners,” says Mr. Danilov. He points out that transit issues are regulated by international treaties, and these agreements cannot simply be ignored.
Director of the Institute of International Relations and Political Studies of Lithuania Raimundas Lopata found it difficult to answer unequivocally whether it is possible to limit military transit. “There are concerns about the complications that have arisen. Will the Kaliningrad “card” be played here? As far as I know, Russia's opinion on the visa-free regime has recently changed. Putin did not want it for the people of Kaliningrad, and now Russia is again in favor of it. However, in the current conditions, I think there will be no conversation,” the expert believes.
German political scientist Alexander Rahr (director of programs for Russia and CIS countries of the Council on Foreign Policy of the Federal Republic of Germany) has visited Kaliningrad more than once and is well aware of the difficulties that now face the westernmost region of the Russian Federation. He does not rule out that “Kaliningrad will have to painfully feel the countermeasures that the West will take to punish Russia.” “Lithuania can raise the transit issue, but I don’t think it will go far, and it will create difficulties for ordinary people when traveling from Kaliningrad to main Russia. But in the case of military transit, it’s possible,” Mr. Rahr does not rule it out.
The Russian Federation also conducted negotiations on Kaliningrad visa issues with Poland, also planning to establish benefits for residents of border areas. The topic of opening navigation on the Kaliningrad (Vistula) Lagoon stood apart - many yacht owners on both sides of the border are looking forward to this event, and full-fledged tourist routes are ready. But how soon will they start working?
Program Director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs Adam Eberhardt believes that it is too early to give up, but there is no point in having particularly bold hopes. “Although Russian-Polish relations are in a difficult position due to disagreements over the situation in Georgia and the American missile defense system, we can expect that channels of interaction on specific problems of our cooperation will not be closed. At the beginning of September we expect Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov to arrive in Warsaw. The agenda of the Polish-Russian dialogue, of course, includes the opening of the Kaliningrad Bay, as well as the prospects for visa benefits for residents of the region. But we shouldn’t expect a breakthrough,” this is the point of view of the Polish analyst.