| The Agency for Political Forecasts has seated future deputies in seats The National Agency for Political Forecasts (NAPP) conducted a study to try to answer the question of what the Duma 2003 will be like. The agency analyzed data from the largest sociological centers (FOM, VTsIOM, VTsIOM-A, ARPI/ROMIR), as well as its own expert surveys, and came to the conclusion that the party in power most likely will not receive a constitutional majority in parliament. 230-250 mandates - this is what United Russia can count on, together with single-mandate deputies and representatives of other parties, including the Liberal Democratic Party, who gravitate towards it, say NAPP analysts. The Communist Party of the Russian Federation, together with its sympathizers, can gain 108-123 mandates, the Union of Right Forces and Yabloko will each take approximately 22-25 seats in the Duma. The penetration of the Rodina bloc into parliament on the list still raises serious doubts among analysts, although they do not rule it out.
NAPP experts conducted their research based on the average predicted turnout - 59%. In addition, a certain coefficient of discipline among fans of different political forces was calculated. For the Communist Party of the Russian Federation it is 0.9. This means that 90% of people who in polls declared their readiness to vote for the Communist Party will not give up their intentions on December 7. NAPP placed Yabloko in second place in terms of the discipline of the electorate with a score of 0.8. United Russia, SPS and LDPR have a result of 0.7. However, according to the head of NAPP Mark Urnov, errors are acceptable in assessing the discipline of the LDPR, since “some Zhirinovites are sometimes embarrassed to say that they are Zhirinovites.”
Mark Urnov called the results of the primaries held a week ago by VTsIOM interesting, but not representative - due to the heterogeneity of the population in Russia. The organizers of the “training elections” took as a basis cities whose socio-demographic profile corresponded to the Russian average. However, the political scientist argues that the population of medium-sized cities in their electoral behavior is very different from residents of villages or, say, residents of republics, who are strongly dependent in their sympathies on republican leaders. “To take a set of medium-sized cities and claim that all of Russia will vote this way is at least bold,” says Urnov. - This choice explains such a furious gap between the Communist Party of the Russian Federation and United Russia. After all, if there are anywhere to find United Russia lovers, it’s in medium-sized cities, and communist lovers – in the countryside.”
Speaking about the jump in the rating of the party in power, the head of the NAPP noted that it is in no way connected with the success of the election campaign. “Until August, there was a conflict between two groups in the presidential administration. The People's Party - a project of competitors of the former head of the Kremlin administration Alexander Voloshin - had the goal of undermining United Russia. But by August, United Russia was perceived as the only candidate. The people realized that this is the party of our beloved president,” Urnov explained.
NAPP also provided an expert assessment of the strength and purity of the election campaigns of different parties. The campaigns of United Russia and the Liberal Democratic Party turned out to be the most powerful. They are the dirtiest. Experts called the SPS campaign “polluted” (due to the Yabloko action without Yavlinsky). Next - in order of increasing purity - are the bloc of the Party of the Revival of Russia and the Party of Life, the bloc "Motherland" and the People's Party. And the most crystal clear were “Yabloko” and the Communist Party of the Russian Federation. Ksenia VERETENNIKOVA |
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