Translated material
Doubts away
Belarus will sign documents on the creation of a customs union
Today, the presidents of Russia, Kazakhstan and Belarus intend to sign documents on the creation of a trilateral customs union. By yesterday evening there was virtually no doubt left that this would really happen. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko (pictured) called the upcoming signing “a historical event that we have been working towards for quite a long time, but purposefully.” But his recent critical statements suggested that Minsk may refuse to participate in the customs union.The creation of a customs union of Moscow, Astana and Minsk was the main topic of the meeting of the integration committee of the Eurasian Economic Community held yesterday in the Belarusian capital (EurAsEC includes Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, Tajikistan, with Armenia, Moldova and Ukraine as observers). EurAsEC Secretary General Tair Mansurov expressed hope that the removal of barriers between Kazakhstan, Russia and Belarus “will allow each country to increase its GDP by almost 15% by 2015, which totals about $400 billion.”
Mr. Mansurov also spoke about the documents that the leaders of the three countries intend to sign today: “We are talking about a single customs tariff within the customs union from January 1, 2010 and the signing of an agreement on the entry into force of the customs code from July 2010.” However, yesterday it remained unknown how the controversial issues between Russia and Belarus were resolved. Experts found it difficult to talk about how a single customs tariff would begin to operate in a month.
For Minsk, one of the most painful issues is the unification of import duties on cars. Belarus does not want to raise it to the Russian level, since it does not produce passenger cars and receives significant budget revenues from taxes on their imports. The other day, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev emphasized that he would insist on the unification of this duty. According to experts, Minsk could concede on this issue only in exchange for favorable terms for energy supplies, including the abolition of duties on Russian oil supplies to Belarus.
In November, Alexander Lukashenko twice publicly expressed doubt about the need for Belarus to participate in the customs union. He was concerned about “whether Belarusian economic and foreign policy interests are sufficiently protected and fully taken into account.” Belarusian experts disagree on the reasons that prompted Mr. Lukashenko to agree to participate in the trilateral customs union.
“The fact that Minsk is likely to sign documents on a customs union does not mean that it is actually going to create it. The history of recent years shows that many treaties signed in a solemn atmosphere subsequently slowly died. There is no reason to say that this time it will be different,” Yaroslav Romanchuk, head of the Mises Research Center, suggested in a conversation with Vremya Novostey. The expert believes that it is “unprofitable for Belarus to enter into a customs union with Kazakhstan and Russia, where a high level of trade protectionism remains. It is best to create a free trade area with all neighboring countries, including EU member states.”
Belarusian political scientist and former member of parliament Olga Abramova, in an interview with VN, suggested that the mediation of Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev played a role in making the final decision: “Perhaps he brought the Belarusian leader some proposals that were impossible to refuse.” Mr. Nazarbayev's visit to Belarus began on Wednesday, November 25, and he signed an economic cooperation plan for 2010-2011 with Alexander Lukashenko. In the near future, Minsk and Astana want to implement about 30 joint projects totaling $3 billion.
In the presence of journalists, Mr. Nazarbayev said: “The customs union will remove difficulties in exporting through Russia between Belarus and Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan is ready to export its products that you need, including energy raw materials.” After the rise in price of Russian energy resources since 2007, Minsk is seeking to diversify its sources of oil supplies and is undoubtedly interested in cooperation with Astana in this area.
True, experts doubt that the terms of supplies from Kazakhstan will be profitable. “The main question is whether Kazakhstan is ready to supply oil to Belarus, like Russia, at a preferential price? Due to the need to transport over long distances, Kazakh oil will in any case be more expensive than Russian oil,” Irina Tochitskaya, deputy head of the research center of the Belarusian Institute of Privatization and Management, told VN.
It is noteworthy that Alexander Lukashenko is already showing concern for expanding the customs union. “I am sure that Kyrgyzstan will join us, there is such a statement, experts are working, there is enormous interest,” he said yesterday during a meeting in Minsk with the President of Kyrgyzstan Kurmanbek Bakiyev. To this the guest replied: “We are ready to join the customs union, but we are members of the WTO, and there are certain conditions there that our experts are working on.” Nevertheless, according to Mr. Bakiyev, his country's entry into the customs union is “a matter of time.”