| Sergei Ivanov is tired of building a Russian-Ukrainian plane The heads of the defense departments of Russia and Ukraine, who arrived in Baku for a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers of the CIS countries, actually buried the largest military-technical project that still connected the two states. On the eve of the official opening of the meeting, on Tuesday, Ukrainian Defense Minister Anatoly Gritsenko said that Russia was going to withdraw from joint work on the creation of the An-70 military transport aircraft. Yesterday, the head of the Russian Ministry of Defense, Sergei Ivanov, who chaired the ministerial meeting, promised that “a separate statement will be made on this topic.” He, however, did not hide the fact that he assesses the future of the An-70 very pessimistically. “This project is being carried out according to technical specifications drawn up in 1984, and there is no end in sight. We’ll see what happens next,” Interfax reports the words of the Russian minister from Baku.
Yesterday evening, Mr. Ivanov left Baku, but before arriving in Moscow the promised “separate statement” was not forthcoming. At the same time, earlier the leadership of the Russian Air Force, in particular the commander-in-chief of this branch of the armed forces, Vladimir Mikhailov himself, had repeatedly stated that the An-70 would not be accepted into service by the Russian army.
Anatoly Gritsenko believes that the further participation of the Russian side will be reduced to the “division” of the created developments and the settlement of mutual financial claims. “The exit will be formalized taking into account experts in order to resolve all issues related to intellectual property and financing of this project,” the Ukrainian minister said on Tuesday. “This will allow the Ukrainian side to independently finalize this aircraft.” Russian experts doubt that Ukraine will be able to “raise” the An-70 alone or attract new foreign partners. According to some estimates, up to 90% of the intellectual property created during the implementation of this project is assigned to Russian enterprises. However, the issue of financing work on the An-70 is quite confusing. In recent years, even before the “Orange Revolution,” Ukraine has repeatedly stated that Russia is not fulfilling its material obligations related to the project. In theory, this could result in intellectual property claims. However, the main problem of the plane is not who ultimately owns it, but who needs it. Apart from Ukraine itself, no country has yet expressed an unequivocal desire to purchase a new transport vehicle.
Meanwhile, back in 1999, the market prospects for the An-70 looked brilliant. The program to create the An-70 short take-off and landing operational-tactical military transport aircraft was regulated by two Russian-Ukrainian intergovernmental agreements (from 1993 and 1999). The government customers for the aircraft were the defense ministries of Russia and Ukraine. The volume of the Ukrainian government order was projected to be 65 aircraft, the Russian one - 164 units.
In addition, there were strong hopes for exporting the vehicle to third countries, due to the fact that just at this moment the European member states of NATO were preoccupied with creating their own rapid deployment forces, independent of the United States. To develop this market, a modification of the An-7X was proposed - adapting the aircraft to NATO standards. It was assumed that France, Germany and some other large countries of the North Atlantic Alliance could purchase several dozen of such machines. All hopes went to waste after in 2000, the Europeans chose to develop their own medium transport aircraft, the A400M, using the Airbus concern. The first flight of this aircraft is scheduled for 2008, and its serial production will begin in the same year. At the first stage of the program, seven European countries will purchase 180 A400M for their armed forces. Subsequently, European aircraft manufacturers are counting on additional orders, including from outside Europe.
After such success of the competing model, interest in the An-70 fell sharply, not only among the Western, but also among the Russian military. As luck would have it, around this time the plane clearly demonstrated its unsafety. In total, during the implementation of the An-70 program, only two copies of this machine were assembled for flight testing. The first of them crashed back in 1995 near Kiev due to a collision with another plane. The second (and the only one remaining now) crashed onto a snow-covered field near Omsk in 2001. The car was restored, but serious questions about its handling remained.
In addition, Russian pilots, under the leadership of Army General Mikhailov, began to actively emphasize that in terms of a number of key characteristics (take-off weight, mileage), the An-70 turned out to be “larger” than was promised and went beyond the class of medium-sized aircraft. And in the class of heavier transport vehicles, the Russian aviation industry has its own national favorites - various modernizations of the Il-76. Considering Ukraine’s desire to join NATO, this choice of the Russian military has not only economic, but also political and strategic reasons. By the way, our Ukrainian colleagues clearly understand this, and this does not add to their optimism.
Georgy Manchulenko, Secretary of the Committee on National Security and Defense of the Rada of the fourth convocation (2002-2006), told Vremya Novostey yesterday: “The current completely predictable situation is the result of the short-sightedness of the previous Ukrainian government - the leadership of the Ministry of Defense, the Ministry of Industrial Policy and the ASTC. . Antonov. Ukraine, based on foreign policy guidelines, immediately needed to look for partners to complete the project in the West. It is not serious to count on full cooperation with Russia while claiming full membership in NATO. At the same time, there is no point in being offended by NATO for its indifference to the project, given that Ukraine has been trumpeting at every corner about attracting the Russian Federation to cooperation. I don’t think that the future of the An-70 is finished. It is necessary to look for serious partners outside of Ukraine, while developing the project with public funds. The An-70 is ahead of its Western counterparts in terms of technical solutions and will be relevant for 15-20 years.”
Alexander Kiva, Deputy General Designer of ASTC named after. Antonov, where the An-70 was designed, believes: “We need to strive to resume cooperation with Russia, although we don’t really believe in it. After all, we are not the initiators of the break, and the ball is not in our half of the field. Russia's decision is not a surprise to us, since the Russians have been cool towards the project for several years. In particular, the Russian side never fulfilled its contractual obligations to finance the project in the amount of more than $48 million.”
“The Russian solution has many components,” says Mr. Kiva. — Some experts say that the reason for the gap is Russians’ dissatisfaction with Ukraine’s Euro-Atlantic policy. Others believe that the Russian Federation’s withdrawal from the project is a consequence of the rapprochement of the Russians with large European concerns that are lobbying for their aircraft, the A400. And as you know, you have to pay for any cooperation. At the same time, our Russian partners are losing a lot. Firstly, they invested enormous amounts of money in the An-70. Secondly, the supply of equipment and defense systems from the Russian Federation has actually been put an end to - 70% of the An-70 should have been equipped by Russians. The future of the An-70 project depends not so much on ASTC. Antonov, how much from our state, which finances the main work. Of course, using the aircraft only in the Ukrainian army does not have much prospects. Therefore, emphasis will be placed on expanding international cooperation. The An-70 meets the requirements of the world's leading countries, which are striving to increase the mobility of their armies. Therefore, either in the form of a program as a whole, or in the form of separate areas, our concern will use developments on the An-70. From a technical point of view, these Russian-Ukrainian solutions can be considered outstanding, since they have no analogues in any country in the world.”
Today the An-70 has only two more or less real customers. The Czech Republic agreed to accept three such aircraft in payment of the Russian debt (however, in parallel, the Czech Republic also allows another option for settling the debt - with payment by helicopters). And the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine in 2001 placed a starting order for five aircraft. Of course, it makes no sense to launch mass production for eight cars. If there are no new mass orders, then these first ones will remain unfulfilled.
In Russia, the news that the authorities are inclined to abandon the An-70 project did not come as a surprise to industry professionals. The tone of their comments, however, differed markedly. Representatives of the old technical guard would prefer to see continued cooperation with Ukraine. “About $4 billion has been invested in the creation of the An-70 aircraft since Soviet times. By withdrawing from the project, Russia is actually donating these funds to Ukraine. At the same time, Russia will be able to create an aircraft of this class in twenty years, again spending billions of dollars,” he said yesterday Interfax-AVN test pilot Alexander Akimenkov.
At the same time, State Duma deputy and businessman Alexander Lebedev told Vremya Novostey that since the An-70 project was carried out by “two bureaucracies - Russian and Ukrainian,” nothing good could come of it initially. Mr. Lebedev now considers the only problem important from the point of view of Russian interests to be the need to “deal with the opaque financial relations that have developed around the An-70.” As for the prospects for the Ukrainians themselves to continue this work, Mr. Lebedev philosophically remarked: “I can only wish them success.” At the same time, he is confident in the possibility of continuing other Russian-Ukrainian aircraft construction projects based on the principle of market feasibility. In his opinion, the project of organizing the simultaneous production of the An-148 regional airliner in Russia and Ukraine still has a future, despite the difficult political relations between the two countries. In Ukraine, there are also voices for steps towards Russia in the aircraft manufacturing sector.
Georgy Kryuchkov, chairman of the committee on national security and defense of the fourth convocation of the Rada (2002-2006), said yesterday that Russia's decision causes him "bewilderment and concern." He admitted: “Of course, it is problematic for Ukraine to independently complete the project, especially in the current difficult economic conditions. I think the complications with the completion of the project are caused by Ukraine’s harsh statements regarding NATO membership.” At the same time, the politician believes: “Ukraine needs to make compromises with the Russians and resolve the situation, since in the West they are not waiting for our plane and are very jealous of competitors in the aircraft industry.” Mikhail KUKUSHKIN, Svetlana STEPANENKO, Kyiv |
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