| Quotes returned to $50 per barrel Oil prices continue to surprise the market. Contrary to analysts' forecasts, the cost of raw materials, having reached a historical high of $58 per barrel two weeks ago, did not continue to grow, as analysts predicted, but began to fall. Yesterday morning on the New York Stock Exchange, a barrel of oil cost less than $50, although it then rose to $50.9. Interestingly, on the London Stock Exchange, where the price of raw materials is traditionally lower than in New York, oil futures contracts for June cost $51.3 per barrel, losing 30 cents. Experts note that the reason for such fluctuations was an increase in reserves of oil and petroleum products in consuming countries, a decrease in the activity of speculators, as well as emerging forecasts about a possible slowdown in global economic growth. And winter is already over everywhere. At the same time, analysts continue to insist that oil will soon break records again.
As noted by the head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, Evgeny Suvorov, according to a report from the US Department of Energy, oil reserves in the United States increased over the week by 3.6 million - to 320.7 million barrels, and oil product reserves, which experts did not expect, increased by 800 thousand - up to 213 million barrels. “Literally a week ago, the speculative premium was $5-7 per barrel,” says the expert, “but then large investment funds began to actively sell futures contracts, and quotes went down.” In addition, OPEC President Ahmed Fahd al-Sabah said yesterday that the cartel will increase oil production in May by 500 thousand barrels per day, and in the second half of the year by another 800 thousand.
Argus agency analyst Natalya Bortsova notes that “until recently, traders were afraid of the possibility of a shortage of oil and petroleum products on the market, and this gave rise to a bullish play.” However, the second quarter traditionally sees a drop in demand. In addition, experts are beginning to talk about a possible slowdown in global economic growth, although for now these are only preliminary forecasts. At the same time, Ms. Bortsova emphasizes that a “completely atypical situation” has developed on the market when prices for WTI oil, which is traded on the New York exchange, are lower than for Brent, sold in London. “As a rule, oil contracts in America are more expensive than in Europe. After all, the United States is an importer of raw materials, and the difference in prices for standard varieties should justify transportation across the Atlantic, the expert explains. “The current situation is explained by large-scale oil supplies to the United States from Canada through the pipeline system, the capacity of which has recently been increased.”
According to an Argus analyst, such a price ratio is unfavorable for Russia, since “the possibility of supplying excess volumes of oil from the European market to the United States is closed” (Russia, as is known, exports raw materials mainly to Europe). True, there is no oversupply of raw materials in Europe yet. “Recently, there has been good demand from European refiners; in addition, OPEC countries are not increasing supplies to Europe, sending additional volumes of raw materials to Asia. So China saved the situation,” says Ms. Bortsova.
At the same time, it is not yet possible to talk about a long-term drop in prices for raw materials, since the summer increase in consumption of petroleum products (and this is not only gasoline, but also fuel oil for power plants, because in the summer, firstly, energy consumption increases due to the operation of air conditioners, and -secondly, it is necessary to create reserves of raw materials) will again create the preconditions for bullish play. Denis REBROV |
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