| Russian banks set a record for foreign currency imports into the country The dollarization of the economy, the end of which the Central Bank declared more than a year ago, has again become a reality. According to the Central Bank, in July banks imported into the country the maximum amount of dollars since 1997 - 2.9 billion. This is almost twice as much as a month earlier and four times more than a year ago. Citizens set their own record by purchasing almost $3.3 billion worth of currencies from banks. Analysts believe that if the Bank of Russia, as before, restrains the strengthening of the ruble, the population’s reorientation toward dollar assets will continue at least until the end of the year.
In June last year, the head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, said that Russia “is at the beginning of the process of de-dollarization of the economy”: the share of foreign currency liabilities in banks’ balance sheets for the first time dropped below the pre-crisis level of June 1998 (29.4%), and the volumes of foreign currency imported and exported by banks were almost caught up. At the same time, he stated, “the population increasingly prefers to keep their money savings in rubles,” and the demand for them has increased significantly. However, as it turns out, this trend did not last throughout the year. Since the end of last April, the Central Bank began to prevent the growth of the ruble exchange rate, and the dollar overcame the 29 ruble mark for the first time in several months, as a result of which citizens again gave preference to the currency. The summer crisis of confidence in banks only deepened the people's love for dollar savings, and it is not surprising that it was in July that the process of “reverse dollarization” of economic relations manifested itself especially clearly.
In July, the volume of currency imported into the country by authorized banks amounted to $3.43 billion (in June - $1.72 billion), including US currency worth $2.9 billion (in June - 1. 5 billion). The export of foreign currency amounted to only $126 million (119 million was directly in dollars). “It is obvious that the demand for currency increased sharply in the summer,” says Troika Dialog economist Anton Struchenevsky, “and, judging by a number of signs, this process continues now.” This may be evidenced by a decrease in the monetary base in a narrow definition (cash in circulation plus required reserves on ruble bank accounts). “The monetary base is decreasing due to ruble deposits, and most likely this money is partially used to buy dollars and open foreign currency deposits,” Mr. Struchenevsky believes. According to the Central Bank, in July the balance of foreign currency purchases and sales became the lowest in recent years. And if last year citizens sold more foreign currency, then according to the results of this year, economists say, a “net purchase” is expected.
According to experts, the preferences of economic entities (primarily bankers and their clients - individuals) are unlikely to change by the end of the year. “I don’t think that the Central Bank will change its policy without a significant reason,” says an expert at one of the economic institutes, “especially if international markets remain stable and the dollar exchange rate does not deviate significantly from the level of 1.21-1.22 dollars. for a euro." Thus, the dollar (supported by the monetary authorities) will most likely maintain its current position at the level of 29.2 rubles, which means that the population will have no reason to change their preferences.
In addition, as evidenced by the calculations published yesterday by the Center for International Economic Research "BDO Unicon", in August it was dollar deposits in banks that brought their owners the greatest real income (from 0.31% to 0.59%), which was facilitated by the nominal strengthening of the dollar against the ruble by 0 .49%. At the same time, the real profitability of deposits in euros amounted to 0.09--0.37%, and of ruble deposits, only deposits for a period of more than three months showed real profitability (0.07--0.34%). One-month deposits turned out to be unprofitable (-0.06%). Yuri VERETENNIKOV |
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