Translated material
Two months before the WTO?
As is known, Moscow has not yet overcome four obstacles in its negotiations with Washington on accession to the WTO: it has not achieved any effect in the fight against counterfeit products, does not intend to abandon protectionist policies in agriculture and aviation, and also categorically objects to the admission of direct branches of foreign banks. It was the issue of banks that seemed to be the most difficult recently - here Russia’s position was unambiguous, as President Vladimir Putin publicly stated. However, according to unofficial data (and there will be no official data until the negotiations are completed), Russian negotiators have already begun to discuss with the Americans the possibility of opening branches of foreign banks on certain preferential terms - for example, in ten years.
Alexander Shokhin believes that at the current stage of negotiations, “the issue of admitting direct branches of banks is a matter of trade on other points, and not a fundamental problem.” All American banks that want to work in Russia are working there now, he notes. The head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs believes that solutions to controversial issues have already been found, and the time has come for a political decision: “There are two opinions in the US political elite. First, the issue will be resolved within two months. Secondly, the American side will delay this issue until the G8 summit in St. Petersburg, so that Russia does not feel like a full member of the international trading community.”
However, if this is really the only problem, then, most likely, it was Russia that had to make concessions. According to Mr. Shokhin himself, David Sampson confirmed the US’s readiness to move faster towards a WTO agreement, but emphasized that for the agreement to be ratified by Congress, it must meet the “gold standard” that the US has established in similar trade negotiations. And the issue of bank branches, although not a standard of the WTO itself for joining the organization, is included in the American “gold standard”. None of the countries that have joined the WTO in recent years have been able to convince the United States. However, an informed American expert notes in a conversation with a Vremya Novostey correspondent, few of them had, like Russia, ambitions to preserve the national banking system. China at one time also agreed to the US conditions, but subsequently “took revenge” by complicating banking regulations. “However, your negotiators can be understood. After all, American legislation does not provide for the operation of branches of foreign banks in the United States. They don’t pay attention to this only because our banking system is the most powerful in the world,” our interlocutor admits.
The American expert, like Mr. Shokhin, believes that the time has come for political decisions. However, unlike the head of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, he does not think that the whole point is the White House’s desire to keep Russia out of the international trading community. “The internal political situation of the Republicans is such that it would be extremely difficult for Bush now to take steps towards Russia. Moreover, if such steps may be perceived by business or politicians as some deviation from national interests, he says. - Of course, the protocol between Russia and the United States will eventually be signed, but now is a very bad moment for Bush. If he does this now, it will only be to quickly survive criticism on this matter."