Doesn't burn in fire

Political scientists do not believe that power in Russia will change

Another attempt to outline the contours of Russia's development for the near future, including the period after the 2012 presidential elections, was made at a conference of political science experts organized by the National Business Forums agency. The collective Nostradamus gathered to, as the meeting organizers explained, “to analyze what we will all be breathing, draw conclusions, and then take action towards making the air cleaner.” In the meantime, the air leaves much to be desired, it is appropriate to talk about the prospects for Russian politics and the economy for the next couple of years while wearing a gas mask. For this or some other creative purpose, each guest of the discussion received a gas mask, and its name was “Project: Atmospheres.” It is assumed that this is not a one-time event, but the beginning of a long and, perhaps, even useful brainstorming session for Russian society with the participation of analysts holding different views on the situation in the country and the path of its development.

As one would expect, perhaps the main topic of the speeches was the fires that struck Russia this summer. Things got to the point where political scientists proposed viewing this natural disaster as a direct challenge to the authorities. And the main thesis of the discussion was voiced at the very beginning of the meeting, which was moderated by the project moderator, author and presenter of the “25th Hour” program on the TV Center channel, Ilya Kolosov. Moscow State University professor Alexander Buzgalin declared the slogan of modernization, formally adopted by the Russian authorities, obsolete. According to Mr. Buzgalin, it was suitable for the twentieth century, and now it is time to experience post-modernization development. The professor does not believe in the innovative development of Russia, since “too little funds are allocated for education”; the government has focused on supporting the financial system. Mr. Buzgalin's forecast for the future is moderately optimistic: unstable economic growth with the threat of crisis at any moment.

Deputy Director of the Institute of CIS Countries Vladimir Zharikhin did not make such statements, but he forced his comrades in the analytical workshop to think about the path of development of the country using the example of the near abroad. “We worked on different models. Many said that we need freedom of speech, freedom of assembly, parliament should be a place for discussion, and there will be happiness. Here you go, Ukraine. “Everything is there, but there is no happiness,” the political scientist was stunned. It turns out that the paths to happiness are generally inscrutable, no matter how hard you try. “Others said that the liberals are tired, a tough hand is needed, state management of the economy is needed,” the researcher continued his shock analysis. - Please, Belarus. There is no happiness either. The opinion is often heard that the curse of Russia is high oil and gas prices, and as soon as they collapse, innovative development will begin. But in Belarus and Ukraine there is no oil and gas. Have they started to develop along an innovative path? No. So we can't find the real problem."

Numerous attempts to one way or another integrate summer fires into the public palette were systematized by the General Director of the Agency for Political and Economic Communications, Dmitry Orlov. He believes that fires and unclean air are not a verdict on the authorities, the tandem, the established system, but a challenge that must be answered. An effective solution to the problems of fire victims, the construction of new houses for them with high quality and on time is important today as a moment of truth, a test of the regime’s professional suitability.

“Can’t the government build 3 thousand wooden houses?” - the political scientist asked a rhetorical question. Putin remains the leader of hope even in the ashes. “I think that the new Putin, who is emerging before our eyes - with the solution to the problems of fire victims, will look even more advantageous - a completely in demand new image of power,” Mr. Orlov believes. According to the political scientist, attitudes towards the ruling tandem are gradually improving, as recent sociological surveys show. But to strengthen this trend, the government must take certain measures.

And she will accept them, leaving no chance for the opposition. Of course, in the upcoming presidential and parliamentary elections, increased prices may worsen the electoral picture for the authorities, but most likely they will be suppressed through anti-monopoly measures. And in vain the opposition is pinning its hopes on the middle strata: if every fifth of the dissatisfied comes to the polls, which would be a good result, then only 1% will win. This is the prediction of political scientist Orlov. “I think the conservative forecast will be realized,” he said. - We will not see open conflicts within the government either in the parliamentary or presidential elections. There will be a struggle between political groups, but behind the scenes. Competition between parliamentary parties will increase. The picture we see will be preserved and reproduced quite accurately.”

Ksenia VERETENNIKOVA