The crisis helped

Gazprom sharply reduced its gas production and consumption forecast for the next five years

The economic crisis in Russia and the world hit Gazprom's pockets hard, but allowed it to postpone the crossing of Yamal. Deputy Chairman of the Board of the Concern Valery Golubev, on the sidelines of the forum “Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia in the 21st Century,” said that the planned volume of gas production of the concern in 2009 was approved at the level of 492 billion cubic meters. This is approximately 10.7% less than last year’s value and the worst figure in the entire history of Gazprom. Moreover, the official forecast turned out to be lower than the most pessimistic estimates that the monopoly's top managers gave in February during presentations to investors. Then the head of the department for strategic development, Vlada Rusakova, said that the production plan was being revised in the range of 510-550 billion cubic meters (the original version was 561 billion cubic meters).

According to Mr. Golubev, according to the adjusted gas balance until 2020, “a decrease in gas consumption and production at the level of 10% per year will continue in the next four to five years.” This means that Gazprom can, with a pure heart, slow down the pace of commissioning of the Bovanenkovskoye field in Yamal, which requires huge investments and unprecedented technical solutions. The deputy chairman of the concern's board said yesterday that it is still planned to start production at Bovanenkovo ​​in 2011. But at the same time, Gazprom no longer excludes the possibility of revising the stages of implementation of priority projects, including the Yamal one. That is, the volume of production from the Cenomanian deposits of the field will reach the projected 115 billion cubic meters not in 2014, as planned, but much later.

According to Gazprom, by 2015 the company plans to receive 75-115 billion cubic meters from Bovanenkovo, and by 2020 - 135-175 billion. The lower limit appeared quite recently, in the first half of March, when, according to According to Vremya Novostei, the head of the concern, Alexey Miller, signed the adjusted gas balance.

However, the start of gas supplies from Yamal may also be postponed, despite the assurances of Gazprom executives that the project will be implemented on schedule - this has already happened. True, in the conditions of the crisis and the reduction in consumption announced by the concern in the coming years, this is no longer so important. At the very least, it will be difficult to blame Gazprom for untimely commissioning of the field. Although there was a high probability of delays and gas shortages in 2011-2012, when the concern exhausted the resources to maintain gas production in Western Siberia through the commissioning of small fields in the Nadym-Purtaz region. It is known that production at Gazprom's giant fields (Medvezhye, Urengoyskoye and Yamburgskoye) annually falls by 20-25 billion cubic meters, and after 2010, according to Gazprom's plans, only the development of Yamal could maintain gas production at a level of over 560 billion cubic meters.

After the concern's management carried out a preventive “devaluation” of production plans for 2009 by 10% at once and announced that this trend would continue for the next five years, everyone will forget about the coming production crisis and gas shortages. And Gazprom will have several years to prepare for the crossing of Yamal. Whether the monopolist will be able to take advantage of this chance given the lack of financial resources or will postpone the project until better times will become clear after the company's investment program for 2010-2011 is changed.

As for other large projects, for example, the Shtokman project, Gazprom now talks about the timing of its commissioning, adding “not earlier.” According to official data from the company, the first phase, which provides for the production of 11.5 billion cubic meters of gas per year and its supply via the Teriberka-Volkhov gas pipeline to the Nord Stream, will be implemented “no earlier than 2013”, and the second (the first stage of the production plant LNG for 7.5 million tons) - “not earlier than 2014.”

Alexey GRIVACHS