Translated material
Blackmail with elements of bluff
Not every missile will fly from Pyongyang to Alaska
The DPRK's menacing statement about possible missile launches towards the United States is nothing more than a bluff, says Major General Vladimir Dvorkin, adviser to the PIR Center. To create a weapon, in particular a missile with a range of 7 thousand km, which the DPRK claims to have, it is necessary to carry out a full cycle of tests - about ten launches. The North Koreans have not conducted a single test of their Taepodong-2.The DPRK's nuclear program can also be classified as hypothetical. To create a full-fledged nuclear warhead, you need at least one explosion, which cannot be concealed. Today, North Korea, according to Mr. Dvorkin, has nothing - neither a launch vehicle nor a nuclear warhead. The existing unfinished missiles simply will not reach the target. North Korea touts the launch of the Taepodong-1 missile as an achievement. But, according to experts, the launch of this missile, which flew through Japanese territory and fell in the Pacific Ocean, was most likely an emergency. However, even in the event of full-fledged tests, North Korea is unlikely to decide to launch a missile towards California or Alaska. The retaliatory blow from the United States will be terrifying. Moreover, it will be applied even if Korean missiles do not reach Hawaii or Alaska.
At the same time, the American strike on Korea will not necessarily be nuclear. If Pyongyang successfully launches a long-range missile and there is convincing evidence that the DPRK has nuclear weapons, the United States will most likely take preventive action without any discussion. Today, America is able to use conventional high-precision weapons to smash to pieces all the DPRK launchers and their manufacturing plants.
Leading researcher at IMEMO RAS, Major General Vladimir Belous, believes that the North Koreans are characterized by “light blackmail with elements of bluff.” North Korea has twice withdrawn from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. According to him, those who are really moving towards creating nuclear weapons usually do not advertise it. South Africa made the weapon in secret, India conducted its first test in 1974, and admitted the presence of nuclear weapons only 24 years later. Pakistan, although everyone knows about the presence of an atomic bomb in its arsenal, has also never admitted to creating nuclear weapons.
And the KDPR, Mr. Belous believes, is doing everything to gain political and economic dividends through nuclear hype. A practically isolated country is using bluff to achieve recognition of itself as a full-fledged state - after all, most countries in the world still do not have diplomatic relations with it. In 1994, North Korea agreed to suspend work on nuclear weapons in exchange for the United States, South Korea and Japan building two powerful light water reactors and supplying the country with 500 thousand tons of oil and fuel oil free of charge. This was a success for North Korean diplomacy. It is quite possible that Pyongyang is counting on the same success today. However, judging by the bellicose statements of Japan and the United States, instead of new free aid, the DPRK may get a full-fledged war. And Pyongyang cannot expect success in it.