| Its pulse is determined by the US economy Although the first full-fledged working week on the stock markets this year began with a slight increase in quotations, no one has yet undertaken to predict the long-term prospects. As before, what traders miss most is “stability in the world.” The Russian market has long been dependent on Western money. And it is simply impossible to predict the course of events in the world's main markets. The situation in the United States seems to be improving, although few believe that almost continuous 10-year growth can cost the American economy so easily. At the same time, there are clear signs of depression in Japan. In the meantime, the position of Western investors remains neutrally negative, and the whole game is being played mainly by domestic players and with Russian money.
Meanwhile, things in the Russian economy have, perhaps, never been as good as they are now, but there are global factors against the influx of capital into our market. “Our fundamentals are good, and our market has potential, but it may be realized in the second quarter, when it becomes clear whether the United States will face a “soft” or “hard” landing,” said Derick Perlin, director of the equity operations department at IFC Bank. .
If events in the United States take on a dramatic character, then Russia will not receive any money - this is obvious to everyone. But if everything goes more or less calmly, then Russia has a chance. This is evidenced by the fact that the analytical products of almost all major investment companies in the world contain advice to increase investments in emerging markets, and Russia appears in all such lists. Apparently, emerging markets will begin to take away from Internet companies (interest in which is gradually decreasing) their “legitimate” niche of more risky, but potentially profitable investments.
There is one more gratifying consideration for Russian exchanges. “Statistics show that when the leading market loses its position somewhat, other markets become more independent, and fundamental factors begin to play a greater role in them. This is our hope,” says Steven Dashevsky, chief equity analyst at Aton.
According to a number of market participants, these hopes will primarily be associated with the bond market. “He will be the most promising this year. This shows the success of last year’s issues, and we expect further growth in this market segment,” says Alexey Gomin, head of the stock market operations department at Guta Bank. “Many stocks now carry the risk of corporate restructuring, so we can expect that bonds will be more attractive to investors, and only then they can switch to stocks,” says Derick Perlin. Nikolay KUZNETSOV |
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