| Yulia Tymoshenko is trying to be friends with Moscow against Viktor Yushchenko The Russian Prosecutor General's Office unexpectedly announced yesterday that former Prime Minister of Ukraine Yulia Tymoshenko no longer faces Russian prison - her international search has been stopped, and the arrest warrant issued at one time has been cancelled. “This decision was made by investigators of the Main Military Prosecutor’s Office (GVP) of Russia due to the fact that last weekend she voluntarily came to the Prosecutor General’s Office and gave explanations necessary for the investigation,” the Prosecutor General’s Office said. Moreover, according to a representative of this department, a verbal agreement was reached with Ms. Tymoshenko that “she will continue to voluntarily appear at the GVP to carry out the necessary investigative actions.”
Such an unexpected, swift and mysterious visit of Mrs. Tymoshenko to Moscow (no one suspected her presence here before the statement of the Prosecutor General’s Office) immediately caused a wave of rumors and speculation about why and how she did it and who she actually met here . However, none of the officials in Moscow dared to speak on this topic yesterday.
Sources in the Prosecutor General's Office explained to Vremya Novostei that Ms. Tymoshenko arrived in Moscow on the night of September 25. From the airport, she allegedly immediately went to the “main” building of the Prosecutor General’s Office on Bolshaya Dmitrovka, 15a, and not at all to the Main Prosecutor’s Office, which, in fact, is dealing with the “Tymoshenko case.” It was there, according to the source, that GVP investigator Vadim Yalovitsky and several of his colleagues were waiting for her. The interrogation, according to this information, lasted only a couple of hours, after which the former Prime Minister of Ukraine immediately left Russia. Lawyer Vladimir Zherebenkov, who represents Ms. Tymoshenko’s interests in Russia, also declined to comment on this matter, confirming only that “the charges against my trustee have not been dropped yet, but we will work on it.”
However, unofficial information immediately appeared that Yulia Tymoshenko in Moscow communicated not only with investigators, but also with one of the Kremlin officials. In Kyiv itself, by the way, Tymoshenko’s visit to Moscow was regarded as an attempt to reconcile with the Kremlin and achieve its support in the 2006 parliamentary elections. During her premiership, Tymoshenko took a critical position regarding the creation of a Common Economic Space with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Now she is making it clear that her bloc may take a pro-Russian position in the 2006 parliamentary elections.
In Russia, Ms. Tymoshenko is accused of “organizing the giving of bribes to Russian officers” in the old scandalous case of the disappearance of more than $300 million that belonged to the Russian Ministry of Defense. By the way, there have been no accused for a long time - some were cleared of suspicion, while others were acquitted. According to the GVP, in 1996, Ukraine and Russia agreed on a procedure for repaying the independent debt for supplied Russian gas. The Ukrainian debt at that time amounted to $450 million. After the signing of a multilateral agreement with the participation of Gazprom, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Defense, the government of the Russian Federation, as well as the government of Ukraine, the company Unified Energy Systems of Ukraine (UESU), whose president was then Yulia Tymoshenko , was supposed to supply rolled metal, building materials and furniture to the Russian military for the amount of the debt. However, over 3 years, the Russian Ministry of Defense received goods worth a little more than $130 million from the Ukrainian side.
In 2000, the GVP opened a criminal case. Its main defendant was the chief financier of the Ministry of Defense, Colonel General Georgy Oleinik. Although many Russian and Ukrainian officials signed that ill-fated agreement, including those of much higher rank than Mr. Oleinik, it was he, according to the GVP, who became the main culprit for the loss of money. At first the court found him guilty of abuse of power, but then, however, acquitted him. Along the way, two more defendants appeared in the case - former employees of the Central Directorate of Material Resources and Foreign Economic Relations of the Ministry of Defense, Colonels Alexander Izgagin and Boris Churilov.
They were accused of the fact that when processing goods that were nevertheless received by the Russian Ministry of Defense under this agreement, they, for bribes of 5.5 thousand and 500 dollars, “deliberately inflated the cost of construction materials supplied by the Ukrainian side to the Ministry of Defense, as a result of which damage was caused to Russia for 98 million dollars.” It was Yulia Tymoshenko who organized the transfer of these bribes, as the GVP decided. However, at first there were no special complaints about her. Moreover, in 2003, the court concluded that the colonels did not have sufficient knowledge of economics and pricing and did everything in their power to ensure that contract prices met the conditions imposed. At the same time, the court considered that the officers carried out the orders of the higher command and complied with the requirements of the law. And he acquitted Izgagin and Churilov of abuse of power and of accepting bribes. Thus, the fact of the transfer of bribes seemed to be refuted.
However, on September 13, 2004 - in the midst of the presidential election campaign in Ukraine - the Russian prosecutor's office issued a decision to bring Yulia Tymoshenko as a defendant for organizing the giving of repeated bribes through an intermediary to officials of the Ministry of Defense. On September 21, 2004, Ms. Tymoshenko did not appear when summoned to the Prosecutor General's Office. And on September 23, the GVP appealed to the Moscow Garrison Court with a demand to take her into custody and put her on the international wanted list. However, in April of this year, in connection with the decision of the General Secretariat of Interpol, all data on Yulia Tymoshenko, who took the post of Prime Minister of Ukraine, was removed from the search information systems. But, despite the fact that the Interpol base is a single base for all countries, the GVP continued to investigate the case and was going to handcuff Tymoshenko when crossing the Russian border.
Yesterday both the Prosecutor General's Office and the Main Prosecutor's Office spoke about the surprise of Ms. Tymoshenko's arrival. “But the criminal case still exists. I believe that there is no point in prosecuting my trustee for a crime that did not happen. After all, the court acquitted the officials of the Ministry of Defense, recognizing that there was no bribe. Therefore, I hope that all persecution against Ms. Tymoshenko, whose interests I represent in Moscow, will be stopped in the near future,” said Mr. Zherebenkov.
Meanwhile, Ms. Tymoshenko's real political situation is much worse than she is trying to present publicly. “After her recent resignation and refusal to sign a memorandum on political consolidation with President Viktor Yushchenko, the ex-prime minister turned out to be a political outcast, pushed out of the upper stratum of elites,” Vadim Karasev, head of the Ukrainian Institute of Global Strategies, commented on the situation to Vremya Novostey. On the eve of the elections, Tymoshenko’s “channels of access to the business elite and the electorate are blocked,” and “the return to the “high society” of Ukraine lies exclusively through the Kremlin.”
Moscow, naturally, has not yet given any answer. The Kremlin fears that Yulia Tymoshenko’s support “would have a negative impact on Russian-Ukrainian relations after the appointment of the president’s protege Yuri Yekhanurov as prime minister,” explains Mr. Karasev. Yanukovych, who recently signed a memorandum of political support with Yushchenko, “has sharply increased his role in Ukrainian politics” and is now “beneficial for Russia, which is interested in stable political marriages,” says Vremya Novostey’s interlocutor.
At the same time, “forces positioning themselves as allies of the Kremlin are persuading with maximum benefit to use the Tymoshenko factor as an anti-presidential opposition in the conditions of the crisis of Viktor Yushchenko’s team,” Ukrainian political scientist Andrei Ermolaev told Vremya Novostei. Against the backdrop of Yushchenko’s traditional opponents , - the communists, the Social Democratic bloc and the Party of Regions of Ukraine - Tymoshenko has a number of advantages: the image of an alternative and more consistent leader of the “orange” revolution than the president. This guarantees her significant support from the protest electorate.
“Unlike the 2004 presidential elections, the Kremlin is unlikely to act as straightforwardly,” Secretary of the Rada Committee on National Security and Defense, deputy Georgy Manchulenko, told Vremya Novostey. “Most likely, bets will be placed on different political forces.” “The Russians will try to play to aggravate political intrigue so that no force in Ukraine receives a controlling stake to influence Ukrainian politics,” says political scientist Vadim Karasev.
The Kremlin’s harsh attitude towards Tymoshenko will most likely be replaced by her “instrumental” use during the 2006 parliamentary election campaign,” believes political scientist Andrei Ermolaev. However, “it will be assigned a purely technological role.” The ex-prime minister herself consoles herself with the thought of outwitting the Kremlin.
With the resignation of Tymoshenko, there is a reconciliation between the new (from Yushchenko’s circle) and the old (from the circle of ex-President Kuchma) political elites. At the end of last week, one of the leaders of the Donetsk clan, Rinat Akhmetov, who fled the country in July due to charges of attempted murder, returned to Donetsk for two days. “Donetsk “influence groups” will feel safe after Tymoshenko’s removal,” Mr. Karasev believes.
The chief editor of the Ukrainian magazine "Political Thought" Vladimir Polokhalo called "Vremya Novostey" the formation of Yekhanurov's government "the result of a separate pact between Yushchenko and Yanukovych on the latter's terms." “Many positions in the government will now become payment for bills of exchange from Yanukovych, with whom power was shared. As proteges of the Donetsk elite, these officials will focus on the ex-prime minister also on the eve of the parliamentary elections,” believes Mr. Polokhalo. “Subsequently, this will make it possible for Yanukovych to apply for the post of prime minister after the parliamentary elections and constitutional reform planned for January 1, 2006.”
This forecast was confirmed by Vadim Karasev. “I would not rule out that after the parliamentary elections the option of Prime Minister Yanukovych - President Yushchenko - Speaker Lytvyn will be implemented. This triumvirate guarantees stability in Ukraine for several years. Reforms will be implemented to the extent that they do not affect the interests of large financial and industrial groups, Mr. Karasev believes. “The window for radical reforms that break the economic system that has developed over the last ten years has slammed shut with Tymoshenko’s resignation from the post of prime minister.” Svetlana STEPANENKO, Kyiv, Ekaterina KARACHEVA |
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