Translated material
Without optimism
Shares from Sberbank's additional issue began trading on the RTS
Trading in shares of the additional issue of Sberbank in the amount of 2,586,948 pieces started on the RTS last Friday (they will begin on the MICEX today). At the end of the day, they lost half a percent (that is, they were trading no lower than the market) - the cost of one security decreased by $20, to $3,565. This is not the worst result, considering that in general, profit-taking and volume there were few purchases. But for the near future, market participants predict not the most successful dynamics for them, since, firstly, there is an excess supply, and secondly, an IPO of a competitor, VTB, is coming. However, fundamental indicators indicate the attractiveness of the paper in the future.As is known, on March 27, the supervisory board of Sberbank approved the results of the placement of shares, and on March 29, the results of the additional issue were registered by the Central Bank. The bank's shareholders bought 64% of the additional issue, paying 146.3 billion rubles. for 1.643 million shares. 99% of shareholders who decided to exercise their pre-emptive right to repurchase paid for their applications. As a result of the placement, the Central Bank's share in Sberbank's capital decreased from 64 to 60% of ordinary shares.
“On Friday, prices for Sberbank shares did not show any pronounced dynamics, trading volume was low,” says Konstantin Drachev, an analyst at Brokercreditservice. The trading volume on the security amounted to 713 thousand dollars versus 6.47 million dollars the day before.
In the near future, the dynamics of the blue chip banking sector will likely remain negative. “The 2.6 million shares of the additional issue released to the market will put pressure on Sberbank’s stock quotes,” notes Maxim Osadchiy, senior analyst at Antanta Capital. “After all, the demand was satisfied during the placement: those who wanted it had already purchased the bank’s shares, and the supply increased.” In other words, the market will need time to digest the increased number of shares. In addition, Sberbank shares may be negatively affected by the upcoming placement of VTB. According to the analyst, Sberbank's main competitor on the stock market could attract up to 170 billion rubles. and take over investors' funds.
However, Mr. Osadchiy points to a factor that in the future may have a positive impact on the dynamics of Sberbank shares. The bank's own capital, which amounted to $12 billion, as a result of the additional issue increased by $9 billion, that is, by 75%. And capitalization is only 13%. “Judging by the key banking indicator - the ratio of capitalization to equity capital, Sberbank is undervalued,” says Mr. Osadchiy. “In this case, this indicator is 3.7, while for Bank Vozrozhdenie, for example, it exceeds 6, although its investment attractiveness is significantly lower.”
According to the expert, in the near future, at least until the completion of the initial public offering of VTB shares, Sberbank shares may trade below the market, but in the future, in the absence of an external shock, they should rise.
Taking into account the latest data, Aton analysts predict the price of Sberbank’s common shares at $4,658 at the end of the year, and preferred shares at $69.86. That is, the growth potential is 28 and 29%, respectively. According to Mr. Osadchy's estimates, the fair value of an ordinary share of Sberbank is $4,200.