Translated material
"Sorry for the bad manners"
Sergei Ivanov wants to see peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh
Yesterday in Baku, at a meeting of the Council of Defense Ministers (CMD) of the CIS, the main directions and activities for the implementation of the concept of military cooperation of the CIS member states until 2010 were approved. Another specific decision concerns the extension of the powers of the current commander of the collective peacekeeping forces in the zone of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict, Major General Sergei Cheban, for six months. Summing up the results of the CFR meeting, Russian Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Defense Sergei Ivanov called it “another concrete step towards expanding military cooperation and deepening relations of trust and mutual understanding between the Commonwealth states.”In the absence of Armenian military personnel in Baku, whom the Azerbaijani side did not invite to participate in the work of the CFR , since it considers them persona non grata, and Armenia itself an “occupier country,” the statement of the Russian Minister of Defense about “deepening trust and mutual understanding” looks rather strange . Especially against the backdrop of the fact that Azerbaijani Defense Minister Safar Abiyev directly at the meeting called on his colleagues to “recognize Armenia as an aggressor.”
However, in Baku, Sergei Ivanov made more interesting statements. “As for Nagorno-Karabakh,” the minister said, “I do not rule out that in the foreseeable future peacekeeping forces may appear there to guarantee the implementation of all political agreements that will be reached sooner or later.” “The situation, neither this nor that, excuse the bad manners, cannot continue indefinitely,” added Mr. Ivanov. The mention of Nagorno-Karabakh apparently requires clarification, since we can talk about sending peacekeepers only to the zone of the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict, that is, to the territories of Azerbaijan occupied by Armenia around Karabakh.
However, observers noticed something else. Sergei Ivanov’s statement was made in Baku on the same day when the heads of the military departments of the GUAM organization of Azerbaijan and Ukraine, Safar Abiev and Anatoly Gritsenko, discussed the creation of a joint peacekeeping unit there. Obviously, such an idea is unlikely to find understanding in Moscow if its initiators want to offer the services of Guam peacekeepers to resolve the Karabakh conflict.
In this regard, another Baku statement by the Russian Minister of Defense sounded characteristically, even if not directly related to the conflict. “Peace, security and law and order in the Caspian Sea must be ensured by the states themselves that have access to this lake.” These words became Moscow’s commentary on conversations about Washington’s plans to locate an American radar station in the Caspian Sea. Although, as Mr. Ivanov diplomatically noted, he himself “does not know about such plans.”
On June 5, a new meeting of the presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev, is due to take place in Bucharest under the auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group. But Moscow is probably already concerned that even if Baku and Yerevan reach a compromise in resolving the conflict, not everyone will agree to the participation of the Russian military as part of the peacekeeping contingent in the conflict zone (most likely, under the UN flag).
An official representative of the Azerbaijani Foreign Ministry yesterday called Sergei Ivanov’s statement on the deployment of a peacekeeping contingent “balanced,” since it indicates Russia’s interest in the Karabakh settlement. Ex-President of Azerbaijan Ayaz Mutalibov also called this statement “positive”. In an interview with Ekho Moskvy, he “did not rule out the possibility that Russia would become the peacekeeping party that would satisfy both Armenia and Azerbaijan.”
Official Yerevan has not yet received a reaction to the news from Baku. However, the famous Armenian political scientist, rector of the Caucasus Institute of Media Alexander Iskanderyan, in a conversation with Vremya Novostey, was skeptical about Sergei Ivanov’s words regarding the prospects of bringing peacekeepers into the region and, moreover, his confidence that the situation around Karabakh “cannot continue indefinitely.” “Not at all,” says Mr. Iskanderyan, “the current status quo may just be very long-lasting. In any case, before parliamentary elections are held in Armenia in 2007 and presidential elections in 2008, none of the serious politicians in Yerevan will risk a compromise with Baku.” Moreover, the political scientist is sure, in a certain sense, “the resolution of the Karabakh conflict is not in the interests of Moscow, since any advantages that one or the other side receives as a result of this will lead to a decline in Russian influence in the South Caucasus.”