Translated material
Optimism Index
Residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg adapted to the crisis better than other Russians
The Russian people have gotten used to the crisis, have tightened their belts and are looking to the future with optimism. Such conclusions follow from the data announced yesterday by the General Director of the All-Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion (VTsIOM) Valery Fedorov at yesterday's press conference on the state of affairs in the regions. An initiative survey by VTsIOM was conducted on September 12-13, surveying 1,600 respondents in 140 settlements in 42 regions of Russia.As it turned out, by September, 59% of the country’s residents had generally adapted to the changes that the crisis brought to their lives. In May there were 53% of such “opportunists”, that is, their number increased over the summer. At the same time, 16% of respondents promised sociologists to adapt to the crisis “in the near future.” 15%, on the contrary, believe that they will never be able to get used to the changes that have occurred. According to Mr. Fedorov, these are “pensioners from small and medium-sized cities, from the countryside, those who vote for the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, whose views on life poorly correlate with reality, these people have long gone into denial.”
Residents of two capitals - Moscow and St. Petersburg - adapted best to the crisis realities. Here the share of those who have adapted reaches 76% of respondents, and only 11% do not hope to get used to the new way of life. In other types of settlements, the number of those who have come to terms with the crisis fluctuates within the statistical error - 56-58%. True, there are also many people there who still hope to get used to the new economic formation: from 14% in large cities to 19% in medium-sized ones count on this. Those who no longer expect anything good from life are most numerous in small towns - 20% of respondents, that is, every fifth.
Overall, half of the respondents assess the economic situation in the country as “normal” (49%). It is curious that in March only 29% gave this assessment, and half (51%) believed that “everything is bad.” Today there are only a third of such pessimists (35%) plus another 4% for whom everything is “terrible.” Thus, Valery Fedorov noted, “social moods have stabilized, the improvement of the psychological state has become a fact.” As for the near future, 44% do not expect any changes from it. 33% of respondents expect positive changes, 12% gloomily expect that it will be “even worse.” However, in March-April there were 20% of pessimists, so there is a positive trend.
The governor of the Ivanovo region, Mikhail Men, who was present at the press conference, used the example of his “average region” to confirm that light has dawned in the crisis tunnel. The level of tax collection in the region, according to him, this year is 98% of the previous year. “We planned growth of 30%, so we had to abandon some development programs, but all social obligations will be fulfilled,” Mr. Men promised. And in the textile industry there was even some revival due to the fact that “it has become easier to compete with foreign products purchased in dollars.”
In addition, in the fight to preserve small and medium-sized businesses, a month ago the region decided to reduce the rental rate for premises owned by the region. The rental price for office space should fall by 45%, retail space by 50%, and catering establishments by 91%. With “good catering” Mikhail Men plans to populate the niche from which the gambling business was previously evicted. Municipalities have been instructed to act in a similar way. Finally, with the help of the regional and General Prosecutor's Offices, the Ivanovo region achieved a significant reduction in wage arrears: from 200 million rubles. as of June to 112 million as of today. Employers were even forced to sell their personal cars to pay off debts. “We have a clear feeling that people’s moods are changing in a positive direction,” concluded Mr. Men.
At the end of the press conference, Oleg Ivanov, vice-president of the Association of Regional Banks of Russia, pleased those gathered with the news that they should not be afraid of the “second wave” of the crisis caused by an increase in loan defaults, since “35-40% of bad debts have already been restructured with a significant prolongation " “The increase in arrears has stopped; whoever could shoot as a defaulter has already shot,” Mr. Ivanov explained in response to a question from a Vremya Novostei correspondent. However, he emphasized that there will be no growth in consumer lending “if the state does not show activity.” Small and medium-sized businesses may become a priority, but already in the regions the number of entrepreneurs simply interested in lending has decreased by five to six times, and the volume of mortgage lending, which before the crisis was carried out using cheap foreign money, has also decreased by six times.
But on the balance sheets of banks, assets are accumulating - land plots, unfinished construction projects. “It is unknown how all this will work,” Mr. Ivanov threw up his hands. “There will be no acute phase of the crisis, but the banking system resembles a swimmer with weights on his legs and is unlikely to be able to increase the volume of lending in this situation.” This means that we are still far from overcoming the crisis. But the majority of the population doesn't seem too upset about this.