| Four events happened almost simultaneously. First, Russia actually closed the border with Abkhazia, trying to prevent Sergei Bagapsh from coming to power there. Secondly, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili recognized the same Bagapsh as the winner of the presidential elections, saying that he was ready to conduct a dialogue with him on all issues. Third, Turkmenbashi suddenly announced that starting next year he would increase the price of Turkmen gas sold to Russia and Ukraine from 44 to 60 dollars.
And finally, fourthly, President of Uzbekistan Islam Karimov, the only one of all the CIS leaders, allowed himself to criticize Russia in connection with the crisis in Ukraine: “Russia showed a short-sighted policy even before the elections (in Ukraine - A.D. ), speaking about your sympathies to one side.” According to Karimov, this was “one of the reasons that led to the events in Ukraine.”
The last event is worthy of separate analysis, even if there were no first three. But all together they paint a picture of the decline in Moscow’s authority in its neighboring countries.
Karimov, following Putin, managed to be among those heads of state who congratulated Yanukovych on his victory in the presidential elections. But Karimov respects the strong, and here he made a mistake. Yanukovych turned out to be only very “drawn”. Karimov is ready to shift the blame for his mistake to Moscow. Of course he takes risks. The Kremlin does not forget such escapades. Even before, they didn’t really believe in the sincerity of Tashkent’s sudden turn from relying on military-political “intimacy” with the West to a “family” union with Russia. And now even more so: in Moscow they will decide that Karimov is sending a signal to his former partners, they say, I’m with you again...
But in reality, everything may turn out to be simpler. Karimov was once again convinced that the fear that the Russian “big brother” had instilled in him since the early 90s with his desire to impose close relationships on his younger brothers was not in vain. And the emotions of the Uzbek president (perhaps only the Georgian president can compare with him in this) betrayed this fear...
Turkmenbashi also respects the strong and is not afraid of the weak. The latter can be blackmailed. This is apparently how Moscow and Kyiv seemed to him today. So the neutral leader presented them with a gas ultimatum. Whether he calculated everything correctly when taking such a risk is another matter. The trend is important.
Mikheil Saakashvili also could not stand it. Broke it. He took and “appointed” Bagapsh as the de facto president of Abkhazia. This could now cost the latter as much as Putin’s Brazilian congratulations to Yanukovych. But unlike Yanukovych, who is ready to be considered “pro-Russian,” Bagapsh will be stronger and does not want to look “pro-Georgian.” He, as they say, sent back the congratulations of his sympathizer, “sent” him too...
And now about the first event both in the list and in importance. The decision to close the railway connection between Sochi and Sukhumi, announced by the assistant to the Russian Prime Minister Gennady Bukaev due to the “unconstructive actions” of Sergei Bagapsh, looks like a cynical act, to put it mildly. The very same residents of Abkhazia, whom Moscow registered in the thousands as Russian citizens, in order to then declare its right to defend their interests in the dispute with Georgia, are being punished. And this is at the height of the season, when Abkhazians send their only product to Russia - tangerines, the sale of which feeds their families. Russian bosses explained that the tangerines had some kind of illness and their path to Russia was closed.
And if it has come to the point that, as reported by United Russia deputy Gennady Gudkov, to whose electoral district near Moscow Abkhaz citizens are assigned, they are burning their passports in protest, then we can only throw up our hands and assume the following.
In my opinion, a conspiracy is brewing against Putin. Orange in color, but tangerine in origin. Otherwise, nothing can explain the fierce tenacity with which Russian politicians, officials and political strategists mold and strengthen anti-Russian phobias throughout the CIS. This can be seen from Kyiv and Tashkent, Sukhumi and Ashgabat... And even I can see it. Arkady Dubnov
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