| The new head of Chechnya will have to choose between Kadyrov’s team and Putin’s team The process of electing Akhmat Kadyrov's successor has entered a decisive stage: the vote is just over a month away, and the deadline for registering candidates officially expired on Saturday. The Republican Election Commission did everything right: already on Friday it formed a list of names that will be included in the ballot papers. As in last October, there are seven of them - one main character and six little-known accomplices, designed to provide the appearance of a fair fight for votes.
Together with Police Major General Alu Alkhanov, who was unofficially already ordered to be considered the winner of the vote on August 29, Adviser to the President of Chechnya Vakha Visaev, an employee of the Chechen State Council apparatus Mukhumd-Khasan Asakov, director of one of the branches of the Modern Humanitarian Academy Abdulla Bugaev, General Director State Unitary Enterprise "Chechenneftekhimprom" Umar Abuev, entrepreneur Magomed Aidamirov and the head of one of the departments of the FSB Directorate for Chechnya Movsar Khamidov.
Since General Alkhanov’s headquarters in the republic is also mainly commanded by the FSB, Mr. Khamidov, apparently, should be considered a reserve candidate in case something happens to the main one before the elections. This, unfortunately, cannot be ruled out: reports of explosions and casualties among officials come from Chechnya every day.
Meanwhile, the presence of an understudy is one of those differences that are not very noticeable at first glance, which together make the current situation different from the one that was in the last presidential elections in Chechnya, even despite the arithmetic coincidence of the alignment with the candidates. The doubts of Chechen sociologists regarding the level of popularity of candidate Alkhanov, which the Vremya Novostei newspaper wrote about last week, may be unjustified. At least until now, all acts of free will of the Chechen people that took place in the presence of the United Group of Federal Forces testified to the great compliance of voters and their readiness to vote “for whom they are supposed to.” Even if with an inevitable allowance for regional peculiarities of vote counting, due to which the number of “correct” ballots sometimes turns out to be greater than the total number of voters. But even if the August round of Chechen democracy goes as smoothly as the previous ones, the situation during the elections and immediately after them will still be much more difficult than last year.
There is a fundamental difference between Akhmat Kadyrov and Alu Alkhanov. Mr. Kadyrov spoke, although with the support of the Kremlin, without which he would hardly have been able to deal with his rivals so easily, but still on his own behalf. By the time of the elections last fall, he had actually been in power in Chechnya for more than three years, formed a group of like-minded people, built a power mechanism around himself almost from scratch, and secured forceful support from his own guards and the Chechen police. He may have been less popular than some of his rivals, neutralized by the Kremlin, but he was undoubtedly a fairly independent politician.
Mr. Alkhanov is also supported by the Kremlin. But he didn’t come there on his own; he was nominated by those who position themselves as “Kadyrov’s team.” In fact, there is no “Kadyrov’s team” as such: he was too authoritarian a leader and gathered around himself the most convenient performers, while trying to balance the conflicting interests of various clan groups. This system began to disintegrate immediately after the death of Akhmat-haji. But for now there are people who are very interested in continuing to be in power. Not least because only such a status guarantees their safety. To do this, they need a controlled politician who would outwardly replace Kadyrov, but at the same time, it would not be he who would conduct the “team”, but the “team” would direct him. When Chechen Deputy Prime Minister Ramzan Kadyrov and the new head of the State Council Taus Dzhabrailov first brought the Chechen Interior Minister to the Kremlin, they were sure that this was just the right candidate.
In principle, they have reasons to argue this way. General Alkhanov largely owed his ministerial portfolio to Kadyrov. In this post, unlike his predecessors, he showed accommodating behavior, subordinate not so much to his immediate superiors from the federal Ministry of Internal Affairs, but to the head of the republic and his son, who headed the presidential security service. The security service itself, we recall, is part of the staff of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Chechnya, and its head Ramzan Kadyrov has the rank of captain (until recently - senior police lieutenant). However, modest captain's shoulder straps do not prevent him from regularly showing who is boss in the Chechen house. Perhaps the strong-armed Deputy Prime Minister would not have become such an openly dominant force in current Chechen politics if his boss, acting. President Sergei Abramov immediately showed sufficient rigidity and built the appropriate chain of command. But the financier Abramov, who again came to the republic as a “convenient”, “technical” prime minister, was too shocked by the murder of Kadyrov Sr. and happily gave the initiative into the hands of his energetic partner.
As a result, everything that today can still be called the legitimate Chechen administration ended up in the hands of Ramzan Kadyrov and the Chechen “team” grouped around him. Of course, they really want General Alkhanov to recognize this fact. He has never entered into a public debate with them yet. But it is also obvious that he will have to do it sooner or later. Because the federal center supported him not as a puppet of “Kadyrov’s men”, but as a politician who will help to finally build a normal system of state power in Chechnya, understand financial flows and disarm countless “gray” formations consisting of former, and often active, militants, who were nominally issued identification cards as Russian police officers. Alu Alkhanov is quite suitable for this role - he is loyal, does not have Kadyrov’s charisma, which constantly prompted its owner to seek more and more autonomy and independence. At the same time, he is treated well by the local population, who have not yet seen anything bad from him. And his shoulder straps allow us to hope that sooner or later order in Chechnya will be maintained by normal full-time police, and not by several private armies with extremely unique ideas about the law. We must not forget that Alu Alkhanov has to his credit the commission of German Gref, which is actually writing an economic program for him, which is quite impressive even in preliminary figures.
But Mr. Alkhanov will be able to realize all this positive asset only if he finally becomes the Kremlin’s candidate. It will be much more difficult for the candidate from Ramzan Kadyrov to win the elections, the candidate from Ramzan Kadyrov cannot have a consultant named German Gref, the candidate from Ramzan Kadyrov will in no way be able to help restore the rule of law in Chechnya, because the rule of law cannot be based on the legal knowledge of the head of the presidential guard. It is clear that it will not be easy for the latter to give up his current influence. Moreover, the most unpleasant excesses are possible if the feds do not show sufficient caution and sensitivity in offering him something in return. Therefore, this castling will most likely have to be done after the elections. But it is inevitable. Alu Alkhanov should have only one cartridge left - and it should be in Moscow, and not in Tsentoroi. Ivan SUKHOV |
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