Translated material
Don't be optimistic
The head of the Central Bank is confident in the stability of the Russian banking system
The head of the Central Bank, Sergei Ignatiev, predicts a slowdown in lending growth in the Russian banking system and opposes the idea of granting Rosfinmonitoring additional rights in the process of revoking banking licenses . He spoke about this yesterday from the rostrum of the congress of the Association of Russian Banks and at a separate meeting with journalists.As you know, now the Central Bank can, by its own decision, revoke the license of a bank that has violated the law “On combating the legalization of proceeds from crime.” But since Rosfinmonitoring is also responsible for “laundering” in our country, in February of this year a bill was introduced to the State Duma, according to which the Central Bank will have to coordinate decisions on the revocation of banking licenses with this body. The head of the Central Bank is categorically against this.
“Under the new bill, you will first have to wait until administrative sanctions are imposed on the bank twice. Our lawyers have calculated that this process could drag on for five and a half to six months while cassation and appeals are filed. All this time, the bank, bought through dummies, can carry out fictitious transactions worth 1 billion rubles. daily,” explained Mr. Ignatiev. In addition, he believes, the bill will violate the independence of the Central Bank. “The first article of the law “On the Central Bank” determines that the Bank of Russia performs its functions independently of other government bodies. This is already a political issue, we can go far,” says the Chairman of the Central Bank.
As for the domestic banking system, Sergei Ignatiev is confident in good prospects for its development this year. Although the trend towards unbridled growth is likely to give way to calm and sustainable development. This is also due to the expected slowdown in the growth rate of loans to households and non-financial organizations. “In 2007, the volume of loans increased by 53%. This year it could be 40 or even 35%. And I don’t see anything wrong with this,” said Mr. Ignatiev.
According to Mr. Ignatiev, a slowdown in the growth rate of retail lending should have happened - “the market cannot double in size every year, although the Central Bank’s requirements for disclosing the effective rate and greater attention to this problem by Rospotrebnadzor and the Prosecutor General’s Office could have influenced "
However, it is not only government supervision that keeps banks from making ill-considered loans. This year, the growth rate of foreign loans to Russian companies, including banks, is also expected to slow down. “Although foreign liabilities of Russian banks continued to grow in the first quarter of 2008, the growth may have been more moderate. This is due to the fact that it has now become more difficult and expensive to borrow,” said Mr. Ignatiev. At the same time, the chief banker does not yet expect problems with debt refinancing: “I don’t see a catastrophe here.”
Moreover, the Central Bank has every opportunity to increase the volume of refinancing of banks in the event of problems with short-term liquidity. The development of an auction mechanism for placing available federal budget funds on deposits in commercial banks, announced last week by the head of the Ministry of Finance Alexei Kudrin, is already being completed. “This mechanism, in case of need - most likely, such a situation will occur at the end of April, when banks are due to pay VAT in the amount of about 500 billion rubles - will allow banks to provide additional liquidity,” explained Mr. Ignatiev. The first auctions are planned to be held in mid-April. “The maximum placement period is currently being discussed - two or four weeks,” said the head of the Central Bank. And the amount planned to be placed will be determined by the deficit in the liquidity market. Moreover, each bank participating in the auction will have its own limit. Let us remind you that banks with a rating of at least BB- and an authorized capital of at least 5 billion rubles, which are participants in the deposit insurance system, will be able to participate in the auction.
Along with this, the Central Bank may resort to increasing the refinancing rate and contributions to the mandatory reserve fund. “In conditions where inflation is rising, I do not rule out such a decision in the future,” Mr. Ignatiev said.
But inflation shows no sign of slowing down yet. In the first quarter of this year it has already reached 4.8%, with 1.2% growth occurring in March. But Mr. Ignatiev recalled: in 2006, inflation was the only time in modern Russian history that was below 10% and amounted to exactly 9%, “then in the first quarter the price increase was 5%, now it’s even lower.” The head of the Central Bank once again emphasized that it is possible to meet the single-digit figure for this year. Moreover, in his opinion, we should expect a slowdown in the growth of food prices on world markets, and therefore in Russia.
Mr. Ignatiev is also not worried about other components of inflation, for example, the one that accounts for gasoline, the price of which has increased by 0.9% over the past week. “It is unlikely that there will be any surge in the price of diesel fuel and gasoline. Most likely, there will be smooth dynamics throughout the year,” he believes.
An influx of capital that is not as strong as before will also help fight inflation. “It could be $20 billion, or it could be $60. This figure is very difficult to predict. But in any case, we are ready and know what needs to be done: increase either refinancing or sterilization,” said Mr. Ignatiev. “There was an outflow in March, although much less than in January or February.” However, he found it difficult to name the exact volume of capital outflow from Russia based on the results of March.
In addition to the most pressing topics - inflation, capital inflows and consumer loans - Sergei Ignatiev also spoke about innovations in the field of banking regulation. The Central Bank sent a resolution to the Ministry of Justice for approval, which will soften the requirements for bank funding. “We were rightly reproached that we impose too strict requirements on the liquidity of large banks - they have a stable base for raising funds, diversified across clients, that is, if even one large client leaves, this will not greatly affect the bank’s volume,” admitted Mr. - Mr. Ignatiev. - We took this into account and made proposals to adjust the calculation of liquidity standards. Of course, this will make life easier for large banks.”