| Alexey MAKARKIN, head of the analytical department of the Center for Political Technologies:
— Several important events happened this week. One of them is that it was finally possible to sign an agreement on a single economic space between Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan. However, it should be noted that so far the signed agreement is more of a protocol of intent. And very important here is Ukraine’s reservation that participation in this agreement should not contradict the country’s constitution, as well as its European integration. In reality, the prospects for this agreement can only be judged next year, when the presidential elections are held in Ukraine and the priorities of the new administration become clear. Also in this regard, it is worth noting that it was possible to keep Russian-Belarusian relations from going downhill. Now we can say that an important springboard for integration within the CIS has been created.
The second event is the end of the pre-election congresses. The congress of United Russia was the final one. The party chose a scenario for participation in the elections that can be called the “classical party in power.” This includes inclusion in the list of representatives of federal and regional elites, reliance on regional heads, governors and presidents of republics, as well as the identification of United Russia with the figure of Vladimir Putin. This combination can make the party one of the winners in the elections.
The third event is the end of the election campaign in St. Petersburg, a scandalous campaign accompanied by numerous lawsuits. The debate is about only one thing: will Valentina Matvienko win this Sunday or will there be a second round.
Anton STRUCHENEVSKY, economist at the Troika Dialog management company:
-- The most significant economic event of the week occurred in the money market. This is because public speeches by representatives of the Central Bank helped stop the clearly speculative attack on the ruble. The ruble exchange rate has returned to almost what it was in early September, and interest rates have dropped significantly. It was possible to defuse the heat of passions, and we reached a normal level of interest rates without much intervention from the Central Bank - it did not conduct any operations.
Next, it is worth noting the negotiations on the creation of a single ruble zone with Belarus. From a long-term perspective, this is a useful thing, like the creation of the European Union. At the same time, I would like to remind you that European countries took quite a long time to realize the fact that they would receive some benefits from the creation of the union. This is due to the fact that even in developed Europe, countries differed from each other in many respects, for example, in credit policy and budget policy. And in order to synchronize economic cycles, countries pursued similar monetary and fiscal policies for several years. Only after that they introduced a single currency. What worries me is that all these preparations are not taking place in the Union of Russia and Belarus. Although it is obvious that our economies are very different.
In the coming events, it will be interesting to see how the discussion of the new law on currency regulation and currency control continues. There are some pitfalls there that you would need to pay attention to. In particular, in the version that I saw, some definitions are not very clearly stated, the wording is vague.
As for the budget, thanks to the zero reading, it was possible to agree on almost everything and nothing new happened in the first reading. Recorded by Natalia ROZHKOVA
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