| Damascus and Beirut turn to Moscow for mediation Syrian President Bashar al-Assad will address members of parliament today with an emergency message. The Syrian Ministry of Information told Vremya Novostei only that the president's speech would be devoted to the situation around neighboring Lebanon. Officials refused to say whether the president would name the exact date for the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, which the world community is seeking from Damascus.
Most likely, Mr. Assad will reaffirm his intention expressed on Wednesday to withdraw troops from Lebanon in the coming months and raise the topic of strengthening the security of Syria’s borders in the new conditions. However, given the unprecedented pressure from the West, it cannot be ruled out that the Syrian president will name a more precise date. Although, according to Vremya Novostey, Damascus’s idea is to stall for time by strictly linking its withdrawal to compliance with peace agreements to end the civil war in Lebanon. They were achieved in 1989 in the Saudi city of Taif. The meaning of this link is that the agreements do not provide for the withdrawal of troops immediately, but first require the redeployment of Syrian troops inside Lebanon towards the border with Syria (in the Bekaa Valley, closer to the Lebanese town of Mdeirij near the border).
But the West interprets UN Security Council Resolution 1559, adopted on September 2 last year, to mean that 14 thousand Syrian soldiers must be withdrawn from Lebanon as soon as possible. US President George W. Bush is pushing Syria more than anyone else. Yesterday he said: "It's time for Syria to leave. Democracy in Lebanon cannot flourish while Syrian troops are there." British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw warned that Damascus's stubbornness could result in it being "treated as a pariah." Therefore, the Syrians turned to Moscow for support. Of the non-Arab countries, Russia, by and large, turned out to be Syria's only ally. It is noteworthy, however, that next week, according to Vremya Novostei, a representative of the Lebanese opposition will also come to Moscow.
At the end of January, the Syrian president made an official visit to Russia, during which he agreed with Vladimir Putin to increase economic and military-technical cooperation. And yesterday Damascus urgently sent Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Walid Muallim to Moscow. He met with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his deputy Alexander Saltanov. Russian diplomats explained that the Syrian diplomat “arrived in Moscow to consult” and “received this advice: in the coming days, we can expect that Syria will announce the beginning of the implementation of its plan to withdraw troops from Lebanon.”
The Lebanese opposition, which persistently seeks the departure of the Syrians, is also sending a high-ranking representative to Moscow. As Vremya Novostei learned, Walid Jumblatt, leader of the Progressive Socialist Party of Lebanon, will come to Moscow on March 9 or 10. He will try to persuade the Russians to more actively join the efforts of Western diplomacy and achieve a speedy departure of the Syrians.
Moscow fears that a quick withdrawal of Syrian troops will lead Lebanon into a new civil war. In an interview with the BBC recently, Sergei Lavrov voiced Russia’s position: “Syria should leave Lebanon, but we must be sure that this departure will not upset the fragile balance of power in the country. Lebanon has a very complex ethnic, religious and state structure.” . However, the Lebanese themselves no longer consider the presence of the Syrians (they have been there since 1976, when the Lebanese civil war was at its height) a stabilizing factor. In addition, British Foreign Minister Jack Straw said that the Security Council “at an informal level” is already discussing the possibility of attracting UN peacekeeping forces to cover the “phased withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon.” UN Secretary General Kofi Annan sent his special representative, Norwegian Terje Red-Larsen, to the region. A report on the implementation of UNSCR 1559 should be given by April at the latest.
In Syria itself, defensive fortifications and air defense facilities are being created day and night along the linear directions (that is, parallel to the border with Lebanon). The construction of defensive lines deep in Syrian territory means that the political decision to withdraw from Lebanon by Damascus has already been made. The only question is time.
Even Arab countries are talking harshly to Damascus. Yesterday, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad visited Saudi Arabia, where Crown Prince Abdullah bin Abdulaziz al-Saud complained that it would be difficult for the Arab world to support Damascus if it “does not take concrete steps” and advised the Syrian leader to quickly withdraw troops from Lebanon , if he does not want Saudi-Syrian relations to “encounter serious problems.” The troop redeployment is expected to be completed before the Arab League summit in Algiers on March 22.
The severity of Riyadh’s position is also explained by the fact that the Syrian intelligence services are suspected of involvement in the February 14 assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister, billionaire Rafik Hariri, a friend of many Saudi princes. With the death of Hariri, an opponent of the Syrian presence in Lebanon, a new round of tension in the Middle East began. Meanwhile, the investigation into the assassination of Hariri, whose motorcade was bombed, is moving slowly, although international investigators have joined the case. What is being considered is not so much the possibility that the motorcade was rammed by a suicide bomber, but rather the possibility of digging under the highway and planting powerful explosives there. But after the explosion, a strong fire started, and then rain poured into Beirut. And there is almost no physical evidence left. Elena SUPONINA, Alexander SAMOKHOTKIN |
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