Triumph of the authoritarian reflex

From the book of Ronald Inglhart about the crisis of religiosity

A Russian translation of the last book of sociologist Ronald Inglhart “Unexpected decline in religiosity in developed countries” was published at the European University Publishing House in St. Petersburg. We publish an excerpt that tells how conservative politicians make young people turn away from the church and why researchers are waiting for believers in the coming years will become more.

Starting from February 24, 2022, we were all in the face of the advancing barbarism, violence and lies. In this situation, it is extremely important to preserve at least the remnants of culture and support the values ​​of humanism - including for the sake of the future of Russia. Therefore, the editorial office of Gorky will continue to talk about books, reminding our readers that the world remains in the world and fiction.

Ronald Inglhart. An unexpected decline in religiosity in developed countries. St. Petersburg: Publishing House of the European University in St. Petersburg, 2022. Translation from English Natalia Firsova. Content

The growth of existential safety and cultural changes associated with modernization lead to a decrease in the significance of religion - and in countries with a high level of income of the population, this process has recently reached a turning point in which secularization is accelerated. Almost all world religions impose norms that contribute to increasing the birth rate, but these norms before our eyes are rapidly replaced by the norms of individual choice and rejection of religion.

Fast erosion of the birth rate is not the only factor of secularization. Reaction against unconditional support by leading fundamentalists of Xenophobic authoritarian politicians; against the long history of concealment of violent acts of a sexual nature in relation to minors of the Roman Catholic Church; Against the terrorism of religious extremists - all this could contribute to secularization.

No further than in 2019, the Great Board of Jurisdiction betrayed the facts about the decades of sexual violence and the coverage of these crimes by the highest ranks of the Roman Catholic Church, and the former Archbishop of Washington, Cardinal Theodore McCarrick, was forced to resign. According to the PEW research center in 2020, 92 % of the US adult population heard about the latest investigations of cases of sexual violence by priests of the Catholic Church, and about 80 % of them believe that this reflects the “problems that still exist” in the church. Moreover, 27 % of the US Catholics said that they began to visit Mass less often in response to a published report on sexual violence.

On the other hand, universal disapproval causes terrorism of religious extremists - including in countries with the Muslim majority. In 2008, according to the results of the BBC survey, it was found that the vast majority of residents of the countries of Europe, North America, Latin America and Asia negatively relate to al-Qaeda (terrorist organization, prohibited in the Russian Federation). Less obvious, the majority of residents of Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt, Lebanon and Indonesia have also mainly negatively related to al-Qaeda: 35 % of the Indonesians expressed a negative attitude, 16 %-a positive attitude; In a similar way, 36 % of the Egyptians expressed a negative attitude, 20 %-a positive attitude, while 82 % of the Turks expressed a negative attitude towards al-Qaeda and only 2 % is a positive attitude. Among countries with the Muslim majority, the attitude towards al-Qaeda was divided only in Pakistan: 19 % with negative and 19 % with positive, and most had mixed feelings or they were not determined. In 2013, the PEW survey showed that most of the inhabitants of ten of eleven countries with the Muslim majority entered the survey replied that “explosions of bombs by suicide bombers in defense of Islam” almost never or could never be justified; The scatter of the share of those who answered in this way amounted to from 58 % in Afghanistan to 92 % in Indonesia. Only on Palestinian territory were opinions divided, but even there 49 % replied that this almost never or could never be justified, while 40 % replied that this is often or sometimes justified. One of the reasons for such an overwhelming disapproval of “bombs of bombs by suicide bombs in the defense of Islam” was that about 80 % of the victims of terrorism in the world - Muslims. Between 2002 and 2018 93 % of all deaths from terrorism were in residents of the Middle East, East Asia and Central Africa. The negative reaction to religiously motivated terrorism has become another factor that undermines the support of religion.

Since the 1990s. The US Republican Party, trying to enlist the support of new voters, began to adhere to the views of Christian conservatives on sexual morality, which impedes same -sex marriages and abortions. Hout and Fisher claimed that this not only attracted religious voters, but also pushed the social liberals, especially young people from the religion. At first, this statement seems doubtful, since we have already found out that religion forms the political views of the individual, and not vice versa. But we also remember that with the weakening of religiosity, the dominant direction of causal connection in the mutual influence of the two phenomena may change to the opposite. Using panel data, Hut and Fisher found that people did not refuse religion at first, and then came to liberal policy; The main area of ​​causal connection here was from politics-to religion. One of the consequences was that from 1987 to 2012 the share of the American adult population, who claimed that he had no religious preferences, increased almost threefold, from 7 % to 20 %. The growing significance of personal autonomy mainly explains why the younger respondents are more likely than the elderly left the ranks of the Republican Party.

Many white gospel Christians in the United States believe that the elites have made fun of them for decades and looked down on them. In Trump, they see a person who not only divides their views on the ruling elite and abortion, but also the one who will be ruthless to people who destroy everything that they know and love. As Jerry Falvel Jr., President of the University of Liberty, spoke: “Conservatives and Christians need to stop choosing“ good guys ”... The United States needs street fighters, like @realdonaldtrump (Trump personal account at Twitter), at each level of the government, because the liberal fascist democrats will go to everything.” However, the frank hypocrisy of religious leaders, who once put a moral appearance and marital fidelity in the center of their policy, and now support a deeply corrupt leader, has its own price. One famous evangelist was lamented about the effect that this produces, especially on young people: “We lose a whole generation. They turned away from religion. This is the worst that could happen to the church. ”

The leaders of the Republican Party today may make the same mistake. Although such famous figures as Mitt Romni, George Bush and George Bush Jr. refused to support Trump, most of the highest party functionaries succumbed to intimidation and followed him along the way, which seemed to cost them a significant loss of support among the young generation.

The acceleration of the decline in religiosity has recently cannot be explained by one reason. Perhaps the study of the nature of this phenomenon will take time. The reasons include the three factors described above, as well as factors specific to each individual country, however, the change to the opposite direction of the causal relationship between religion and norms that contribute to increasing the birth rate seemed to spread especially wide and its influence is underestimated. Throughout almost the entire history of mankind, religion was able to impose norms that contribute to high birth rate. In recent decades, the growing commitment to the norms of individual choice undermined religion. As we could verify, this factor explains the large (but, of course, not all) fraction of the inter -strut and inter -time variation of religiosity.

Swift cultural changes, aggravated by economic difficulties, launched a powerful authoritarian reflex, and we witnessed a crisis of democracy not only in countries where there have never been a rooted democratic political culture, but even in established democracies, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany and the countries of Northern Europe. Is this the future awaits us? The answer largely depends on whether developed countries can learn to cope with the characteristic trend of the economy of a developed knowledge of knowledge in which the winner receives everything. If you rely only on market forces, in these countries, economic inequality will continue to grow rapidly and existential security for an increasing share of the population will decrease. Coronavirus pandemia can mobilize the support of the most cardinal changes. In March 2020, a survey of the population of 27 countries of the European Union showed that 71 % of respondents supported the introduction of universal basic income - this position was previously considered utopian.

The answer also depends on whether the correct balance will be found between healthy openness to immigration and such rapid demographic changes that generations of advanced age would feel like foreigners on their own land. The stigmatization of these people as racists and fanatics does not solve the problem. To cope with modern challenges, experiments and innovations will be needed.

Covid-19 pandemic is another threat to the sensation of the existential security of the individual. If this threat remains for several years (which seems likely), it can affect the cultures of many countries, making them more xenophobic and closed for new ideas. Several important empirical studies have shown that in societies where the outbreaks of diseases are frequent, authoritarian or xenophobic cultures and institutions are formed, and coronavirus is the most serious epidemiological threat over the past hundred years.

However, the triumph of the authoritarian reflex is not predetermined. The established democracies only recently survived the transit from the world in which the religiosity and birth rates dominated, to the world in which religiosity and traditional norms became the lot of minority. These extremely quick cultural changes, together with an extremely large influx of foreigners, caused a strong negative reaction. However, with the change of more elderly generations to younger, the intensity of authoritarian reactions, which has grown under the new conditions, will probably decrease. In the long run, scientific and technological progress, as a rule, increases existential safety - which will happen if the proper measures are taken to cope with the urgent coronavirus challenges and the long -standing problem of the inequality inherent in developed societies of knowledge. However, in the near future, we expect that the loss of a sense of security associated with pandemia will enhance the support of religion. An aggregated religiosity index has shown a sharp decline in recent years. If it were measured for 2020, we would expect to see a turn towards an increase in religiosity.

God as an incomplete work

In the course of evolution, humanity came to the search for significant patterns (for example, the chirping of birds on trees can indicate the approach of a predator). The ability to predict future events favored survival. Over time, the search for significant patterns was expanded to the desire to know the meaning of life itself.

But does the Universe make sense, or is the search for meaning? There is no answer yet, since the meaning is an evolving phenomenon. The first four billion years of the existence of this planet on it was not a reasonable life. Good and evil, though and lies were the concepts devoid of meaning. It is wrong to read them from the past. Tayar de Charden considers the universe both an incomplete phenomenon in which both human society and God are in the process of constructing. From this point of view, we are all the time in the process of creating God.

The concept of God has evolved from the biblical times - from the ruthless god of the tribe, requiring human sacrifices, to the merciful God, whose laws extend to all. The concepts of morality also change; A decrease in racism, sexism and homophobia reflects the trend of the transition from intra -tribal norms that excluded the majority of mankind, to universal moral standards. As societies develop from agrarian to industrial and to the knowledge based on the economy, the growing existential security reduces the significance of traditional religion in people's lives, and people become less obedient to traditional religious leaders and institutions. But they do not become immoral from this.

We have freedom of will, and it depends on it whether the origin of a reasonable life in the universe will be a fairy tale told by a fool, or we will become a little less than angels. The balance is so thin that everyone’s contribution is important.

Traditional religions themselves can also pose a danger due to the ability to make a split in the modern global world-because they present the norms of a separate culture as absolute universal values. However, there are many evidence that the cultural habits of society are closely related to its history and socio-economic characteristics. The rigidity of any absolute belief system can generate fanatical intolerance, similar to the struggle between Protestants and Catholics, as well as between Christianity and Islam. To be a positive force in a globalizing world, religion needs a universal prospect.

The possibility of life and God is built into the structure of the universe. It is likely that the emergence of a reasonable life will be a brutal joke. Such monsters as Hitler and Stalin may appear. But the opposite is possible - the mother of Teresa and Albert Schweitzer (and less famous people familiar to the author) prove this. We choose from an incredibly wide range of options, and what this can lead to - depends on our ability to determine the highest meaning of the universe. Reality can be even more magnificent than the image of a god creating Adam, written by Michelangelo for the Sistine Chapel.

The cosmology of the big explosion is no less impressive than the description of the creation of the world in the Book of Genesis. The fact that the human mind is able to recreate the first few minutes of the existence of the Universe, plunges into awe. As well as the fact that the Universe has the potential to create good and evil, mercy and meaning - but nothing of this existed before the appearance of a reasonable life. From this point of view, the creation of the world from the Book of Genesis can be considered as a rough approximation of the description of the theory of a large explosion - which is only a rough approximation of what really happened. Both the traditional religion and modern science are offered by the reproducing approximations of truth that has yet to be comprehended. The search for meaning will continue.