Need for development

OPEC and Russia are ready to meet oil demand

This year, compared to last year, global oil demand will increase by 1.7%, the International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts. The main consumers, according to experts, should be the developing countries of Asia. And the OPEC countries will react primarily to the increase in demand by violating quotas and increasing oil production, the IEA believes. The Asian region will remain the most important for Russian oil producers, who have already begun deliveries via the new ESPO pipeline.

The increase in demand for oil, the IEA believes, will occur due to an increase in its consumption by the countries of Latin America, Asia and the former republics of the USSR, which are not members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). At the same time, in developed countries of Europe and North America, despite the cold winter, the demand for oil will not increase. “We must take into account the fact that in OECD countries the share of oil in the heating and electricity production system is very insignificant,” experts believe. According to their forecasts, oil demand in OECD countries will stabilize after falling by 4.4% in 2009. “In this context, oil-producing countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Russia, will export increasingly more oil to Asia,” the IEA concludes.

OPEC is really going to significantly increase oil production. At the December summit, the cartel again did not change production quotas, set back in January at 24.8 million barrels per day. In December, production level was 26.6 million barrels per day, which is 1.8 million barrels above the established quota. The biggest violators at the end of last year, according to IEA estimates, were the largest exporters - Qatar and Saudi Arabia, which increased production by 30 thousand barrels. Iran, Angola and Nigeria also significantly exceeded the quota.

The IEA believes that the largest non-OPEC exporters will reduce oil production this year. Last year they accounted for about 60% of oil supplies. This year, according to experts, non-cartel exporters will produce 51.5 million barrels per day - 150 thousand barrels less than expected in the previous forecast. At the same time, in 2009, 200 thousand barrels per day less were produced. OPEC, according to IEA experts, will continue to increase production to meet growing demand. Back in December, the IEA believed that the cartel's daily production would be 29 million barrels. In the new version of the forecast, this figure is increased by 100 thousand barrels. Even with such an excess of the quota, OPEC countries will still have unused capacity of 5 million barrels per day.

Russia, apparently, will be ready to meet the demand. Last year, oil exports amounted to 212 million tons. Although the Ministry of Energy believes that oil production this year will increase slightly - by 0.16%, to 495 million tons, exports may rise more significantly. “This year we can expect an increase in exports by 1.5-2% due to the commissioning of ESPO. Demand in developing Asian countries stimulates supplies of Russian oil there; now there is every opportunity for this,” believes Dmitry Lyutyagin from Veles Capital Investment Company.

Kirill MELNIKOV