| Politicians and experts doubt that Putin will become president in 2012 Last Monday, at the Hannover Industrial Fair, Russian President Vladimir Putin for the first time uttered the words “third term” in relation to himself. Literally, the head of state said the following: “I will not change the basic law. But according to the Constitution, you cannot be elected three times in a row.” However, he noted that the Russian Constitution does not prohibit being elected for the third time in a row. “True, I’m not sure that I want this,” the president added.
This modest statement came amid persistent rumors in political circles that Putin’s circle is looking for a legitimate way to maintain power in his hands after the end of his two legal terms in 2008. Public attitudes towards the idea of extending the presidential term have already been studied when Ivanovo parliamentarians introduced a corresponding bill to the State Duma. Then Putin harshly declared that he was not going to be elected president for the third time. And last December, during the annual press conference, the head of state said that he did not intend to run for a third presidential term, either in 2008, or in 2012, or in 2016.
Nevertheless, the expert community does not believe in Putin’s departure from active politics and is building versions of how the president will be able to legitimately retain power. Yesterday, the president presented the political and expert community with a new riddle. A scenario in which in 2008 the head of state will give the “key to the Kremlin” to a loyal person so that he can return it is already being actively discussed. At the same time, few people believe in such a scenario. In the history of Russia, never before has a current ruler returned power to his predecessor.
“I would not yet consider Putin’s words about the inviolability of the Constitution and the 2008 elections as final,” First Deputy Chairman of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Central Committee Ivan Melnikov told a Vremya Novostey correspondent. - Firstly, it’s too early not only to say, but also to believe anything specific. Secondly, they were said at a trade fair. And in big politics everything matters. Seriously speaking, such statements by Putin at this stage are most likely aimed at accustoming society to the topic of a third term. For now, train it in this form. And then, I do not exclude the possibility that some kind of political operation will begin, with the help of which the authorities will prove to society the need to extend the term of office. As for Putin’s illusions about the possibility of returning in 2012, given the powers that the president has today under the Constitution and in addition to it, such complex agreements within the government are difficult to implement.”
“Most likely this is not an initiative of Putin, but of his entourage, who are accustomed to being in power, have become involved and are seriously thinking about how to maintain their position,” says Dmitry Rogozin, leader of the Rodina party. - But the Constitution does contain some ambiguity regarding the question of whether one person can hold the post of president for three terms. Logically, it cannot. But at the same time, there is an obvious loophole in the law that certain people can take advantage of. Another question is whether Putin himself will want to run for a third term, and how the person who, according to the logic of this scenario, will have to guard his place for four years will behave. He, for example, can put forward a condition that he again be the next president. And then this situation will turn into endless ping-pong.”
“Putin realized that the struggle for his seat had become too intense, and it was necessary to show that he would continue to control the situation after 2008. That is, “all of it will not go away.” But this is a typical Putin bluff,” Stanislav Belkovsky, president of the Institute of National Strategy, told a Vremya Novostey correspondent. “He wants to prepare the country for the possibility of a third term.” And then, when he abandons this idea, it will be a colossal relief for the country. And everyone will rightfully declare that Putin is a real democrat. He is not going to run for office because power is too heavy a burden for him. He wants a certain comfort, wants to transfer this responsibility to someone and remain in history as the person under whom Russia did not collapse.”
The President of the Institute for Strategic Assessments, Alexander Konovalov, on the contrary, is inclined to trust the concept of the “Kremlin watchman” and even made an assumption about his personality: “The Constitution does not prohibit Putin from nominating himself for president in 2012. But for this we need to try to implement the idea of the Speaker of the Federation Council Sergei Mironov. He was the first to propose making Putin prime minister for a while, and Mironov himself, for example, a man known to be loyal, to be president. But the idea itself is difficult to implement. When someone, even Mironov, feels that he is the elected president, that he has four years ahead of him, that the power apparatus is in his hands, he will “cheat” this prime minister right there.”
The Yabloko party perceived the president's statement as a dishonest move. “Putin’s statement contains a conflict of interests between the current president of the country and the future presidential candidate. Thus, there is a use of the current official position for future political purposes. This looks unethical, because none of the 2012 applicants have a similar opportunity,” Sergei Mitrokhin, deputy chairman of Yabloko, told Vremya Novostei.
Vladimir Medinsky, a member of the United Russia faction in the State Duma, on the contrary, welcomes Putin’s words: “This is an absolutely normal statement, within the framework of the law. If Putin decides to run for a third term after a break, it will be a unique situation; history knows few examples when leaders managed to come to power after a break.” Ksenia VERETENNIKOVA, Daria GUSEVA |
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