| Gas suppliers are unanimous in the need for long-term contracts The third day of the International Gas Conference in Tokyo confirmed that a new era has indeed begun on the global gas market, but not the one that BP CEO John Brown proclaimed the day before yesterday. In contrast to his “flexibility” theory, yesterday in Tokyo they talked about the strategic importance of long-term contracts. And this marks a radical turn in global energy policy.
The previous gas conference, held four years ago in Nice, France, was held at the peak of the “fashion” for reducing the role of long-term contracts. Then, in the wake of the adoption of the directive on the liberalization of European energy markets, long-term take or pay agreements, on which the export business of Gazprom and many other suppliers are based, were declared the main enemy of market relations. In Nice, the Russians, who said that the cancellation of long-term contracts would lead to a sharp decline in investment and, accordingly, supplies, found themselves in splendid isolation.
However, time has put everything in its place: at the Tokyo forum, British BP was already in the overwhelming minority, whose head, Lord Brown, announced on the first day of the conference about a new “spot” era in the gas business. The remaining major suppliers - Shell, Gaz de France, Ruhrgas, not to mention Gazprom - unanimously declared that long-term contracts will continue to play a dominant role. The explanation for the dramatic change in sentiment is simple - the Europeans were unable to offer a reasonable alternative mechanism for guaranteeing return on investment. All this cannot but please Gazprom. Another positive information should be considered the announcement of forecasts for consumption growth in the European market. Thus, the head of Gaz de France Pierre Gadonnex said that by 2010 consumption will increase by 30% (approximately 2.9% per year). Over the next decade, growth will slow to 2% per year, and by 2020, cumulative growth will be around 50%. At the same time, due to the depletion of their own resources (in Norway and the UK), the share of imported gas in the EU will change from 45 to 75%. In absolute numbers, this is approximately 300 billion cubic meters of additional imported gas per year. The figures presented by the head of Ruhrgas, Dr. Burkhard Bergmann, were somewhat more modest - 2% per year, but the approximate order of growth is the same. It is obvious that Russian gas will fight for the opening niche.
However, the fight will not be easy. In the speeches of the heads of Gaz de France and Ruhrgas, words were spoken about the need to diversify supplies. Considering that there are currently no problems with gas projects, competition with new suppliers, whom the Europeans are going to encourage, promises to be extremely tough. Mr. Gadonnex even listed the countries that should prevent Russia and Algeria from strengthening their position in the European gas market. The list includes Libya, Nigeria, Trinidad and Tobago, Qatar, Oman, Egypt, Angola and Venezuela. This declares the European desire to increase the share of liquefied natural gas, which was a hit at the Tokyo conference. And here Gazprom certainly has an incredibly huge lag behind other gas companies.
In the meantime, as follows from the speech of the head of the Russian concern Alexey Miller, the company is only looking for promising markets. And only after this will it begin to develop the direction of liquefied gas with an eye to the development of the Yamal Peninsula and the shelf of the Arctic seas. Although we need to learn from experience now through participation in foreign joint projects.
Introducing Alexey Miller, who spoke after the head of Ruhrgas, the moderator of the session showed off his knowledge of Russian political cuisine and recommended him as “a native of St. Petersburg - a very beautiful city.” However, the biggest surprise was the form of the speech of the chairman of the board of Gazprom. For the first time, the head of this company reported at an international conference in English. Let it be with a pronunciation, let it be “on paper”, but like all “white people”. True, the content of the report differed little from similar presentations made by less senior Gazprom officials at various forums in Russia. Except that the traditionally favorite topic about the need to increase gas tariffs was not raised at all. It is worth noting that the pre-prepared text of the speech of the head of the Russian concern in Tokyo was promptly adjusted based on the results of the speeches of other speakers. According to the Vremya Novostey newspaper, it was decided to remove some forecast figures from the report, but increase the chapter devoted to the current state of Gazprom. In addition, the topic of Sakhalin-2 was expanded, since the prospects for the concern's participation in the Royal Dutch/Shell project were touched upon in the speech of Sir Philip Watts from the Anglo-Dutch company. Alexey Miller confirmed yesterday that the company intends to become a shareholder in the project (currently Shell, Mitsui and Mitsubishi participate in it). As you know, the main participant in the project, Shell Russia, has been negotiating this with the Russian concern for about a year. The essence of the Asian vector of Gazprom’s strategy can be summed up in one phrase: “APR countries are attractive to us not only as export markets for our gas, but also as partners in the implementation of joint projects in gas production and transportation.”
Yesterday's day at the forum ended with a joint press conference between Alexey Miller and Burkhard Bergmann. Most of the questions were addressed to the head of Gazprom, while the head of the German concern was frankly bored. Mr. Miller responded in short sentences, frequently asking reporters follow-up questions but never regaling them with news. And the Russians could not help but notice that in his manner and intonations one could feel the influence of Russian President Vladimir Putin. Alexey GRIVACHS, Tokyo |
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