Airplanes in plain clothes

Civil aviation defeats military aviation

The international air show in Farnborough, England , which ended this weekend, was marked by the triumph of civil aviation. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) estimates total global airline profits this year at $2.5 billion, up from $9.9 billion losses in 2009. In military aviation, things are not nearly as successful. The defense budgets of the EU and the USA have been reduced (and have the prospect of further cuts). As a result, the military transport A400M, ordered by seven NATO member countries, was delayed for four years. The Eurofighter F-35 fighter has been delayed for more than two years. The exhibition at Farnborough 2010 of the largest defense corporation Lockheed Martin is twice as modest as it was here two years ago.

And although Russian companies in Farnborough have signed contracts worth $10 billion, this amount does not include much in military production. Moreover, several unpleasant surprises awaited Russian manufacturers and sellers of military aircraft in the UK.

Firstly, the key event of the air show was the appearance of two JF-17 Thunder fighters made in China and Pakistan. These aircraft are already in service with the Pakistan Air Force. They flew to Farnborough with refueling at airfields in Saudi Arabia and Turkey. Turkey and some Middle Eastern and African states have become interested in the JF-17. In contrast to well-known large aircraft manufacturing corporations, including Russian ones, which offer to buy expensive “sophisticated” fighters, the Pakistanis are offering an inexpensive ($15 million), light tactical multi-purpose supersonic modern combat aircraft.

It can carry air-to-air and air-to-ground missiles, aerial bombs, including laser-guided ones, and is capable of reaching speeds of up to 2.2 thousand km per hour, its flight range is about 3 thousand. km. The armament is a double-barreled 23-mm cannon, the aircraft has seven hardpoints for missiles, free-falling and adjustable bombs, and external fuel tanks.

The Pakistani Air Force plans to have at least 150 of these aircraft. It is possible that the order will be increased to 250 vehicles. The Egyptian government is negotiating with Pakistan to jointly produce the JF-17. An aircraft assembly plant may be opened in Egypt. In China, the JF-17 is produced under the name Chengdu FC-1. It differs from the Pakistani version in avionics, other parameters are the same. The Chinese-Pakistani novelty could cross the path of some potential Russian contracts in third world countries.

The second unpleasant surprise for the Russian aviation industry: China is finishing testing an aircraft - a copy of the Russian Su-33. “We have questions for our Chinese colleagues regarding the Su-33 aircraft and the Su-27 aircraft under the license program,” said Mikhail Pogosyan, general director of the Sukhoi and MiG companies, during the show. “We will resolve this issue through negotiations, within the framework of agreements signed between our countries, including on the protection of intellectual property.” But, perhaps, representatives of the Russian military-industrial complex realized it too late. “No copy can compare with the original”, “we are not afraid of competition, our technical level is an order of magnitude higher than Chinese developments” - these assurances from Russian aircraft manufacturers do not convince us that the problem with Chinese “clones” of Russian fighters can be solved.

And there is no particular way to object, since, as Alexander Fomin, First Deputy Director of the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation, said in London, we have no legal grounds for presenting claims to the PRC. Besides, it’s possible that making noise is more expensive for yourself. China remains a buyer of Russian weapons. The construction of deck-based helicopters ordered by China continues in Kumertau. It is planned to supply nine Ka-28 and nine Ka-31 helicopters. The acceptance of the first helicopters by Chinese customers has already begun.

Russia also sells engines for Chinese fighters. In this way, experts believe, we are creating a competitor for ourselves in the global aviation market. True, Rosoboronexport insists that the supply of Chinese fighters to Pakistan does not create competition for Russia, since we do not have direct contracts with Pakistan.

The third trouble, announced in Farnborough by the same Alexander Fomin: Russia dropped out of the Brazilian tender for the supply of 120 multi-role fighters. Our promising Su-35 fighter was not included in the “short list” of tender participants. If for some reason the results of the Brazilian tender are cancelled, “Russia would be happy to return to participate in it.” This last statement shows the Russians' deep regret over the defeat.

Trying to smooth out the impression of unpleasant surprises, the leaders of the Russian military-industrial complex tried to assure journalists during Farnborough 2010 that, overall, everything was not so bad. The portfolio of orders for Russian weapons and military equipment today amounts to about $45 billion; in 2010, arms exports will exceed $9 billion. Airplanes and helicopters account for more than half of Russian military exports. According to Mikhail Pogosyan's estimates, about 300 aircraft of these brands will be delivered to the market by 2015. Approximately 40% of them are for the Russian Ministry of Defense, 60% are for export.

First Deputy Minister of Defense Vladimir Popovkin outlined a wonderful prospect: about a thousand helicopters for various purposes will be purchased for the Russian Armed Forces by 2020. Production of the An-124 Ruslan will resume in Ulyanovsk. Work will continue on the Russian-Ukrainian transport aircraft An-70, on the Il-112, Il-476 aircraft and the modernized Il-76MD. From 2013 to 2015, the military is going to buy ten promising fifth-generation fighters T-50 (PAK FA), and from 2016 - another 60 such machines with a full range of weapons.

Long-term contracts have been concluded for Su-35S multirole fighters and Su-34 attack aircraft - a total of 80 units will be purchased. The combat training Yak-130 begins to enter service with the troops. Vladimir Popovkin did not rule out that following the results of the Farnborough show, the terms of reference for Russian manufacturers on drones will be clarified.

Rosoboronexport is implementing two contracts for the supply of Su-30MK2 multifunctional fighter aircraft to Vietnam. Two military transport Il-76MF will be delivered to Jordan next year. Representatives of the state mediator do not rule out that Brazil will purchase an additional batch of Mi-35 helicopters - a contract has already been signed with this country for the supply of 12 helicopters.

The Sukhoi Corporation plans to complete negotiations with foreign partners on export deliveries of the Su-35 multirole fighter by the end of 2010. Deputy General Director of Rosoboronexport Alexander Mikheev promised: the first export contract for the Su-35 could be signed before the end of this year. Negotiations are ongoing with countries in Southeast Asia, the Middle East and South America. Serial export deliveries are planned for 2012. Mr. Popovkin estimates the Air Force's need for fifth-generation fighters at 50-100 aircraft.

The first contracts within the framework of the Russian-Indian programs for the development of a fifth-generation fighter and the promising MTA military transport aircraft may also be signed before the end of the year. Intergovernmental agreements on these programs have already been concluded, all decisions at the level of presidents and governments of the two countries have been made. The Oboronprom Corporation and the Indian company Vectra Group signed a contract at Farnborough 2010 for the supply of four Ka-32 helicopters worth 30 million euros. This is actually the opening of the Indian market for Russian helicopters.

At the same time, the leaders of the Russian military-industrial complex noted that the situation has changed and it is necessary to respond to it more actively. Great hopes are placed on a large-scale state armaments program for 2011-2020, which will be adopted in the near future. At the same time, a program for the development of the defense-industrial complex until 2020 will be adopted. “Both documents will be approved by the president this year,” said Vladimir Popovkin.

Under the State Program of Promotion 2020, funding will be almost doubled - to almost 20 trillion rubles. Every year, at least 2 trillion rubles will be spent on state defense orders. (today 1.3 trillion rubles). As a percentage of GDP, there will be an increase from 2.9 to 3.5-4%, for the first time in post-Soviet history. Let us remind you that the United States spends about 4% of GDP on defense, England and France - about 2%, China and Germany - 1.4%. Unlike previous state armaments programs, GPV 2020 will be mandatory - it must be approved by parliamentarians. Contracts will be concluded with defense industry enterprises for periods of more than three years. Perhaps these measures will breathe new life into domestic military aviation.

Nikolay POROSKOV, London-Moscow